GREEN BAY, Wis. — Jordan Love’s first year as the Green Bay Packers’ full-time starting quarterback was always going to be littered with Aaron Rodgers comparisons.
One we may not have seen coming this soon, however, has arrived.
How many times in Rodgers’ career did he have to bail out Green Bay’s defense and special teams? Sound familiar to the current state of the Packers?
Advertisement
Sunday’s narrow win over the NFL-worst Carolina Panthers served as a microcosm for what’s gone wrong — and right — for the Packers recently. Joe Barry’s defense falling apart, Rich Bisaccia’s special teams faltering and Matt LaFleur’s offense trying its best to compensate.
If the Packers are to wiggle their way into the playoffs, they may need Love and company to shoulder the load against the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears because Green Bay’s other two phases have proved unreliable of late.
While Love and the offense didn’t pull enough of their weight in losses to the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, their phase was hardly the biggest reason Green Bay lost both games. They did enough to spare the Packers from catastrophe in Charlotte on Christmas Eve, however, while the defense and special teams left plenty to be desired yet again. The Packers went seven straight games earlier in the season without scoring more than 20 points. Green Bay has eclipsed that mark in five of the last six games and scored exactly 20 in the other, the 34-20 loss to the Buccaneers. On the other hand, the Packers have allowed at least 24 points in the last three games after only doing so three times in the prior 12 games.
In those ways, the offense has significantly improved in the second half of the season while the defense has cratered over the last three weeks.
So entering a must-win “Sunday Night Football” tilt in Minneapolis, ask yourself these two questions: Which phase do you trust most right now? And do you trust that phase to put the team on its back?
The first answer is obvious. It’s the offense. The second? We’re about to find out if the 25-year-old quarterback, with the help of others, can do what Rodgers so often did and will the Packers to the postseason.
“Jordan, I think we can all agree that he’s come a long way,” LaFleur said. “And there’s still a lot to improve upon, and that’s what’s so exciting because he’s playing at a very high level right now and I still think there’s more out there for him, so that’s exciting for him and all of us.”
The #Vikings–#Packers injury report.
Jordan Addison and Mekhi Blackmon were limited today.
Byron Murphy Jr. and Theo Jackson didn’t practice. pic.twitter.com/7MMw9gTepU
— Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) December 28, 2023
Over the last three games, the Packers rank 31st in defensive total expected points added per snap, according to TruMedia. The Giants gashed them on the ground before the Buccaneers and Panthers did so through the air. Barry is firmly on the hot seat as defensive coordinator, a direct reflection of not only how mediocre his defense has been since he took over in 2021 but also how poor it has been in crunchtime this season.
Advertisement
Against the Giants, the Packers missed a field goal, botched a punt return that led to seven Giants points and committed two special teams penalties. Against the Panthers, they missed an extra point and committed two more special teams penalties. Over those three games, the Packers have returned five punts for 13 yards and averaged 23.2 yards per return on five kick returns.
The offense, however, ranks fourth in the NFL over the last three games in EPA per play, behind the 49ers, Rams and Lions. Love ranks fifth in offensive pass EPA per dropback among quarterbacks who have played all three weeks. Green Bay also ranks 10th in offensive EPA per rush in that span. Love wouldn’t say it directly, but it looks like the Packers might have to score in at least the high 20s to win their final two games.
“I mean, I think it’s a team sport,” Love said. “It’s always, we’re trying to find that mesh of, all right, what does the offense need to do to win? What does the defense need to do? And we kind of play off how the game’s going. But I think the mindset for the offense is always try to put up as many points as we can and just make the game not even close, try to help the defense out in any way we can and I think it’s all about controlling what we can control and what we can control is how many points we can put up, how we execute our offense. We can’t control what happens with the defense, things like that, so we always have that mindset, just try to put up as many points as possible.”
Love has proved capable of making the big-time plays necessary to swing games. Sunday against the Panthers, there were tight-window throws to tight end Tucker Kraft and wide receiver Romeo Doubs for critical gains on scoring drives. There was a Rodgers-esque throw to wideout Bo Melton for a third-down conversion on a touchdown drive with Love tossing a dime off-balance while retreating.
There was even a smaller correction from the Sunday prior that resulted in six points, Love hitting Doubs for a touchdown on an out route after missing a similar throw to receiver Jayden Reed on fourth-and-goal from the 2 against the Buccaneers.
.@jordan3love finds @RomeoDoubs for the score!
TOUCHDOWN! 🙌 #GBvsCAR | #ProBowlVote | #GoPackGo
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/pYmo0WCVjq
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 24, 2023
“I mean, it was the same play,” LaFleur said. “So for him to come back and the same type of throw to the left — matter of fact, I thought the one in Carolina was much harder because the DB took an angle to almost undercut the throw and he made a perfect pass and loved Rome’s reaction after it (throwing the ball into the stands). Just the excitement, so I think that’s just part of the growth and development of a quarterback.”
Advertisement
Sure, it helps when Aaron Jones is doing Aaron Jones things and running for 127 yards at 6 yards a clip, but that’s almost expected at this point. The greater unknown is whether the first-year starting quarterback will make big throws when he needs to in must-win games. He’s done it once against the Panthers and will need to do so again, in a hostile environment, against a division rival, in prime time, with the season on the line yet again.
“Jordan’s been playing really good for us,” Doubs said. “And he knows better than I do that he wants to keep it that way and again, there’s no doubt in my mind that he can.”
GO DEEPER
Why the Packers suspended star CB Jaire Alexander: 'It's never for one thing'
What’s even more impressive about Love’s recent stretch of play is he’s been without No. 1 wide receiver Christian Watson for the last three games because of a hamstring injury, No. 1 tight end Luke Musgrave for the last five because of a lacerated kidney and Reed for the Panthers game because of a chest injury. Ahead of Sunday night’s bout with the Vikings, Watson and wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks, who missed the second half of the win over the Panthers with a chest injury, both missed practice Wednesday and Thursday.
According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Packers have a 94 percent chance to make the postseason if they beat both the Vikings and Bears. They need to win out and get a little help, likely from the Rams or Seahawks losing once. Before the season, you might’ve wanted the onus on Green Bay’s defense in a must-win-out situation given the experience and talent on that side of the ball.
Yet here we are entering Week 17 and it seems like the Packers, given deficiencies in their other two phases, will only go as far as Love can take them. If how he’s played recently is any indication of what’s to come, the Packers could very well find themselves back in the playoffs by next weekend.
“You never know how a game’s going to turn out, whether it’s a 30-point shootout or it’s 17-14 or whatever it is,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “It does give you confidence, ‘Hey, we can score if it becomes that kind of game.’ We have that confidence to be able to do that. And that’s kind of our expectation. Every time we get the ball, we want to go get a touchdown and we’re going to be as aggressive as we can, so it’s just fun to watch those guys go out there and make plays.”
(Photo: David Jensen / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.
