Ravens vs Dolphins live updates of AFC battle for #1 seed.
As if “Game of the Year” doesn’t have enough candidates already in 2023, Miami Dolphins–Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions–Dallas Cowboys will each try their hand. All four of those teams are in the playoffs with a week to spare, but still plenty to play for.
Week 17 brings that and much more. Our NFL writers Jeff Howe, Kalyn Kahler and Mike Sando discuss.
Dolphins at Ravens on Sunday is another matchup with ‘Game of the Year’ potential. Did Miami show enough against Dallas to prove it has solved its woes against elite competition?
Sando: The Dolphins held serve with this victory, winning by two points as a one-point favorite. It was a quality victory, a step in the process. I think beating the Cowboys and Ravens in back-to-back weeks would provide meaningful evidence the Dolphins have made strides.
Howe: The Dolphins deserve credit for passing a big test, no doubt, but this week will show how seriously they should be taken in the playoffs. Are they still a nice story of a team on the rise with explosive offensive firepower that’s built for regular-season success? Or can they graduate from that level and earn the status of a serious contender? Because the Dolphins have played four playoff-caliber opponents this season — Buffalo, Philly, Kansas City and Dallas — and finally beat their first one a few days ago.
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Kahler: I think Miami did show enough last week because it proved it can win now in different ways, with explosive plays on offense or with a running game that can put together long and steady drives, or with a reliable kicker when the offense is tamed, like last week. Miami’s defense has been making plays all season, and the Dolphins have persevered through injuries. This team is legit.
Lions at Cowboys could also make headlines Saturday night. The Lions would love to give the Cowboys their first home loss this year. How can Dallas slow down a Detroit offense that can score in many ways?
Sando: The pressure is on Dallas’ offense to score enough points to either keep pace in a shootout or force the Lions into must-pass situations. That is the best way for Dallas to hide its No. 1 weakness, which is stopping the run.
Howe: The Lions’ success, this week and in the playoffs, will hinge almost entirely on turnovers. When Jared Goff has protected the ball, the Lions have been a very strong team that can play with anyone. When he’s turning it over, disaster has followed. The risk against Dallas, of course, is the Cowboys’ ability to turn takeaways into quick points.
Kahler: All quarterbacks are worse when pressured, but Goff is much worse when he’s pressured. The numbers are stark. He’s completing just 52.4 percent of his passes when pressured, compared to 74.9 percent when not. He’s thrown eight interceptions when pressured and just two when not. The Lions offensive line is healthy again, but the key to this game is if Dallas can get to Goff.
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The Raiders’ playoff hopes are slim but they are alive. Las Vegas is on the road at the Indianapolis Colts this week. Do the Raiders have a legitimate shot at a winning season after cleaning house in November?
Sando: The Raiders might need to keep scoring on defense, which seems unlikely. I think Las Vegas is more likely to split its final two games simply because the offense hasn’t shown enough outside that incredible night against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15.
Howe: Sure, they have a legitimate shot based on the last two wins — an absolute beatdown of the Chargers and a fairly one-sided win against the Chiefs. The Colts have been the better team over the balance of the season, but they just suffered a fairly surprising one-sided loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Then the Raiders can round it out with the Denver Broncos, who appear to be done with Russell Wilson. But like the Raiders’ final two opponents, they’ve been too inconsistent to call anything a sure thing. They haven’t won three straight games all season or four in a row since 2021 which, for those who like symmetry, they did under an interim coach to shockingly get into the playoffs.
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Kahler: I think they do, and if they do, I think we can expect to see Antonio Pierce keep that job full-time. Especially since public opinion did not support Mark Davis’ decision to hire Josh McDaniels instead of interim head coach Rich Bisaccia, who took the team to the playoffs in 2021. With that history, I think this job is Pierce’s with a strong finish. Sando has a good point that the defense needs to keep scoring in order to make that happen because that Chargers game does look like an outlier on offense.
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Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South with a win over New Orleans on Sunday. Do the Bucs put a bow on this division race? Can the winner of this division win a playoff game?
Sando: I do think the Buccaneers will win the division and then probably lose in the playoffs. They do not seem particularly well-suited to beat the Cowboys. While Tampa Bay’s ground game has shown flashes over the past month or so, the Buccaneers still rank last in yards per carry, rushing success rate and percentage of rushes gaining at least 12 yards. A matchup with Dallas could still be intriguing, given the house-money feel to Tampa Bay and the pressure Dallas faces to win in the postseason.
Howe: The Bucs should wrap it up soon enough. Baker Mayfield and Dave Canales have been a solid match, and their defense has been decent enough. In a division where no one has shown any consistency for two years, the Bucs have put together an NFC-best four-game winning streak. I wouldn’t predict the Bucs to beat the Cowboys in the wild-card round, certainly not now and almost certainly not two weeks from now. But if the Cowboys continue to leak oil and the Bucs keep winning games and showing their mental toughness, the idea of an upset is not as much of a long shot as it would have been a couple of weeks ago.
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Kahler: The Bucs will win the division this week, and I agree that they’re likely a quick out in the postseason. However … Mike Evans is quietly having his best season and Baker Mayfield is at his best with something to prove. I’m not ruling out a playoff win, and Dallas’s recent history in the postseason does set up nicely for the Buccaneers to pull off an upset. I do think this is a different and better Cowboys team than 2021 and 2022, but the last two games have been cause for concern.
The Chiefs host the Bengals in what is usually a matchup of AFC heavyweights in recent years. What is wrong in Kansas City? Can the Chiefs fix it? Is it too late for 2023?
Sando: The Chiefs aren’t threatening enough in their vertical pass game, because of their wide receivers. There is no reason to expect that component to suddenly become a sustainable strength in the playoffs. I think we will see Kansas City funnel resources toward the position in the offseason, a little like the team did in addressing its offensive line after the Super Bowl defeat to Tampa Bay. The weakness has been glaring enough to warrant that kind of attention.
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Howe: It’s so hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but when a potentially great team continuously shows you it doesn’t have it, that stuff doesn’t tend to magically fix itself. I can draw upon a few examples from some 2010s Patriots teams that I covered to enforce that point. Mahomes’ supporting cast hasn’t given him much of a reason to trust them. Defenses are doing a better job of flooding Travis Kelce and forcing the others to make enough plays, and short of Rashee Rice, they aren’t doing it. In the loss to the Raiders, Mahomes appeared to bypass some easy completions to extend the play in the pocket, surely making it look like he was hesitant to throw to certain receivers. Mahomes needs to be magical to overcome the limitations around him, and he won’t be able to reach that level if he’s playing reserved.
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Kahler: The Chiefs have shown us enough of a pattern of offensive struggles that I don’t expect them to suddenly become a contender. As Sando and Howe have already mentioned, the issue is the most obvious one. The receivers, and particularly how they struggle when Mahomes goes into improvisational mode. As Howe pointed out, Mahomes looks hesitant when he’s trying to extend a play and make something happen. Mahomes’ average depth of target has shrunk this season and he’s producing significantly less explosive plays per game. Last week’s nightmarish seven seconds — a fumble that the Raiders took for a defensive touchdown followed by a pick six — represent the worst of what we’ve seen from Kansas City this season. Andy Reid is still flashing his creative play designs, but I’m not sure it’s enough to get past the lack of veteran receiving talent.
(Photos of Jared Goff, Micah Parsons and Tyreek Hill: David Berding, Rich Barnes and Rich Schultz / Getty Images)