The Athletic has live coverage of Packers vs Cowboys in the NFC wild card matchup.
The road to the Super Bowl in Las Vegas begins Saturday of wild-card weekend, and even if it doesn’t seem like it, each team has a non-zero chance to win the Super Bowl. Yes, Packers fans, your team can win the Super Bowl. It’s not impossible. Just unlikely.
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As a tradition, I’m going to run through each team and touch on why I think they’ll win the Super Bowl and why they won’t. This is the NFC version. The AFC version will be posted Friday.
We’re going to take a data-driven look at what needs to go right and what needs to go wrong for each team to hit the jackpot in the desert in early February or to start creating their draft board in January.
All stats are via TruMedia or rbsdm.com unless otherwise stated.
San Francisco 49ers
Current Super Bowl odds, per The Athletic’s model: 27.9 percent
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because the 49ers are right on par with the Ravens as the most balanced team in the league — but with a better offense. The 49ers rank first — and by a wide margin in some cases — in EPA/play, success rate, EPA/dropback, dropback success rate and EPA/rush.
What they’ve done on offense this year has been incredible but not unbelievable. With Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Trent Williams, the 49ers are an all-star team. And coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best minds in the game. He has built an offensive juggernaut that, when healthy, looks unstoppable.
Why they won’t
Because the defense has started to slip a little, especially against the run. The NFL playoffs’ two No. 1 seeds are great in every area except for defending the run. Maybe there is something to this strategy!
Either way, the recipe is simple. If you can consistently gain yards on the 49ers, you keep their offense off the field, and that’s the best defense you can play against that unit. Though the AFC doesn’t have many potent rushing attacks, the NFC does. The Eagles, Rams and Packers all rank top 10 in EPA/rush. Add the Cowboys to that group when looking at the rushing success rate. Will it matter? Probably not if the 49ers offense is firing. But if the offense has a bad game and an opposing offense finds success on the ground, an upset is primed to unfold.
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Dallas Cowboys
Current Super Bowl odds: 9.9 percent
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because when Dak Prescott is healthy, the Cowboys have been one of the best offenses in the NFL for years. I know what you’re going to say: “Here we gooooo” with the Cowboys love, but pass catchers CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson are almost impossible to stop whether defenses pressure Prescott or not.
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Prescott ranks seventh in EPA/dropback when facing no pressure this year and leads the NFL in the same metric when under duress. Throw in Dallas’ top-10 rushing success rate and you have a well-rounded offense that can stress any defense. Because of their offense, the Cowboys, like the 49ers, can win a Super Bowl despite how the defense is playing. If they keep it going, the Cowboys can put an end to an almost 30-year Super Bowl drought in Las Vegas.
Why they won’t
Because despite having one of the best pass rushers in football in Micah Parsons, the Cowboys defense is suspect. The Cowboys rank 20th in EPA/play on defense — and that’s factoring in DaRon Bland setting the NFL single-season record for pick sixes — and 31st in defensive success rate. That’s just not going to get it done.
In their seven games against playoff teams this year, they’ve given up an average of 25 points per game. Sure, the 49ers stuffed them in a locker and put up 42, so maybe that’s skewing things a bit, but this is a unit that has dominated bad offenses and hasn’t held up, for the most part, against better quality foes. Maybe it won’t matter if the offense pops off, but Prescott would have to play almost perfectly if the defense can’t get stops.
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Detroit Lions
Current Super Bowl odds: 3.5 percent
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because the defense is much better than you think. Is it one of the best units in the league? No. But it ranks in the top half in most efficiency metrics and allowed only 22 points per game against playoff teams in the regular season. Detroit’s rush defense is the most impressive aspect on that side of the ball. The Lions rank third in EPA/rush and 10th in defensive success rate.
If teams look to avoid the Lions’ stout rush defense and become predictable, they might be able to hold their own long enough for the offense to save the day. Detroit’s pass rush, led by Aidan Hutchinson, will need to be on top of its game to help out the secondary, but safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson returning to the lineup should help the efforts on the back end. If the defense holds up, the state of Michigan could be welcoming its second football title a little more than a month’s time.
Aidan Hutchinson is heating up at just the right time. 🔥
In his last two games: 5 sacks, 7 TFLs, 1 FF, 10 QB hits@FastTwitchDrink | @aidanhutch97 pic.twitter.com/YcoBWLZqkI
— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2024
Why they won’t
Because the offense has failed to show up against good teams. The Lions have averaged just more than 20 points per game against playoff teams this year. They managed more than 22 points against a playoff team just once in six tries, and that came back in Week 4 against the Packers. They’ve failed to find the offensive explosion against the best of the best this year, and if that doesn’t change, they won’t be able to keep up with the likes of the 49ers and Cowboys.
The Lions’ Super Bowl window is likely to be open for a while longer, but they’re still a few players away (maybe a quarterback) from being considered a top team.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Super Bowl odds: 1.8 percent
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because they managed to secure a home game against an Eagles team in free fall and maybe they benefit from some upsets in the rest of the NFC playoffs. But really it will be because their defense takes a time machine back to 2002 and plays out of its mind. The Bucs defense was banged up a good bit of the year, but they’re healthier now. They have a stout run defense thanks to Vita Vea and a healthier secondary that boasts one of, if not the best safety in the league in Antoine Winfield Jr.
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On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield has quietly put together a solid season, and with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to throw to, you can see why. They aren’t the most efficient offense on a down-to-down basis, but they can make some splash plays when they need them. And to win their second Super Bowl in four years, they’ll need a lot of them.
Why they won’t
Because the last two weeks of the regular season are all you need to look at to see why the Bucs won’t get it done. A home loss to the Saints and barely scraping by the lowly Panthers prove the Bucs just aren’t in the top half of the league and are only in the playoffs because the NFC South was the NFL’s worst division. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales has paired nicely with Mayfield, but beating the slumping Eagles seems like the likely cherry on top of a surprisingly successful season for the 2023 Bucs.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Current Super Bowl odds: 3.9 percent
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because this team is still stacked with talent up and down the roster, and they haven’t played to their potential yet. Jalen Hurts, D’Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata … need I go on? This team isn’t all that different from last year’s NFC champion squad, so if they can straighten things out at the right time — similar to the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs — they still have one of the higher ceilings in the NFL.
Why they won’t
Because they’ve been in free fall ever since Big Dom was kicked off the sideline. They just look broken. I’m not sure what happened over the past two months, but the Eagles went from a near-lock to win the NFC East to possibly being a sub-field goal favorite in Tampa Bay on wild-card weekend.
The defense has been a mess all season, but during the past six weeks or so, the offense has joined them. Factor in some health issues to Brown and Smith, and it’s easy to question whether they can even win in Tampa Bay on Monday. An early playoff departure seemed unfathomable two months ago. If it happens, it will put a lot of pressure on the front office and coaching staff this offseason.
Los Angeles Rams
Current Super Bowl odds: 1.9 percent
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Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because when Kyren Williams plays, the Rams have the second-best offense in the NFL. According to FTNData, with Williams on the field (excluding the Brett Rypien start and the Week 18 game against the 49ers), the Rams have an EPA/play of 0.159 and a success rate of 47.8 percent. When he’s off the field, those metrics plummet to -0.153 and 38.4 percent.
That’s the difference between a top-five offense and a bottom-five offense. Matthew Stafford is one of the league’s best quarterbacks, and he has two top-tier assets at wide receiver in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. If there was ever a team (or offense) that could hit its ceiling for four games — sounds like the Stafford-led 2021 Super Bowl champion Rams! — it’s this one.
Matthew Stafford's heat map when Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are all on the field. pic.twitter.com/XKvxLkBL3w
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 10, 2024
Why they won’t
Because their special teams, most notably kicker, is a disaster. The Rams rank dead last in special teams EPA. In the past 10 years, this Rams special teams unit would rank 307th out of 320 teams in Total EPA on special teams. There are other issues with this Rams team (depth, defense), but special teams could ultimately be their downfall.
Green Bay Packers
Current Super Bowl odds: 1.1 percent
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because this offense has found its footing, and they’re getting healthy. Jordan Love ranks fifth in EPA/dropback and 14th in dropback success rate among qualified quarterbacks this season. But something clicked once Week 9 hit. Since then, Love ranks third in EPA/dropback (behind Purdy and Prescott) and second in dropback success rate (behind Purdy). That level of efficiency, paired with a healthy Aaron Jones and possibly Christian Watson, could make for another dangerous offense in the NFC. The Packers defense hasn’t been great lately, but with how this offense is playing, it might not matter.
Why they won’t
Because their defense is a mess. A unit that in August I thought would be decent back ranks in the bottom six of EPA/play and 30th in defensive success rate. They’re only slightly below average against the run, but against the pass? Oh buddy, it’s not great. The Packers rank 27th in EPA/dropback and 30th in dropback success rate. Prescott and, if the Packers beat Dallas, Purdy are going to feast against this pass defense. The talent on this unit says it should be better. But it isn’t.
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(Photo of Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
