The Athletic has live coverage of Rams vs Lions in the NFC wild card matchup.
The Los Angeles Rams (10-7) will visit the Detroit Lions (12-5) on Sunday in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs. It is the first time Detroit has hosted a playoff game in three decades.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’re familiar with the connections between the two teams: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford played in Detroit for 12 seasons after he was selected No. 1 in the 2009 NFL Draft, before a 2021 trade to Los Angeles where he won a Super Bowl that season. Also a key figure in that trade was Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose exit was unceremonious from the Rams team that drafted him with the first pick in 2016.
GO DEEPER
Rams QB Stafford, on returning to Detroit: ‘It’ll be a tough place to play’
Lions general manager Brad Holmes and assistant general manager Ray Agnew worked under general manager Les Snead in Los Angeles. Rams defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant was in the same role in Detroit from 2021 to ’22. Receiver Josh Reynolds and long snapper Jake McQuaide were once Rams.
Those are the juicy storylines. So what about the actual football?
Advertisement
Here are three key things trending up, and down, for each team:
Rams trending up: Matthew Stafford
Stafford, who started the season healthier than he has been since his arrival in Los Angeles, played well throughout the regular season. He’s tied at No. 6 with Goff and Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud in EPA/dropback in 2023 as a whole, per TruMedia.
After the Week 10 bye, when Stafford returned from a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb, he ranked No. 4 in EPA/dropback from Weeks 11 to 17 (he had a rest week in Week 18), and threw 16 touchdowns with just four interceptions and 1,895 yards (second highest) in that span.
GO DEEPER
Inside Matthew Stafford's impact on the Rams offense, from shared ideas to signature flair
Lions trending up: Jared Goff
Goff is playing some of his best football when it matters most. Since Week 15 — a four-game span to end the season — Goff ranks second among all qualified QBs in EPA per dropback at 0.29. Against the blitz, his EPA per dropback of 0.33 ranks fourth. He’s thrown nine touchdowns and only two interceptions during that span, averaging 281.5 passing yards per game (fourth in the league). He appears to be in full command of the offense. The Lions are hoping his late-season run will carry over to the playoffs.
When Goff is kept upright and distributing the ball to his assets on time and accurately, he can carve up a defense and help an offense put points on the board in a hurry. That’s been the case the last month or so, and Goff is thriving as a result. Exactly what you want to see as the playoffs loom.
Rams trending up: Interior pressure
Moving Goff off of his spot and making him uncomfortable in the pocket will be key for the Rams, whose interior defensive line tandem of Aaron Donald and Kobie Turner are getting pressure at a league-leading 32 percent rate. The veteran and the rookie have also combined for 17 sacks.
Advertisement
Donald, as usual, noted this week that he expects to be double- and triple-teamed by the Lions offensive linemen.
Where the Rams have struggled with a young group of pass rushers throughout 2023 is the “transition” rush, or the second piece of a pass rush that occurs after initial pressure, in the Rams’ case from the interior. Rookie outside linebacker Byron Young has great statistics (he’s second to Turner in rookie sack total with eight) and Michael Hoecht has played better in recent weeks, but the complete pressure from inside out has been very inconsistent all season.
Lions trending up: Aidan Hutchinson
Don’t look now, but Hutchinson is heating up. After totaling 6 1/2 sacks through his first 15 games of the season, he’s recorded five sacks the last two games alone — helping him notch double-digit sacks for the first time in his career with 11 1/2. Over the last two weeks, Hutchinson owns a win rate of 26.3 percent and leads the league in pressures with 14. For the season, Hutchinson totaled 101 pressures — second in the NFL. When those pressures turn to sacks, as they have recently, you can feel his presence even more. If Hutchinson can keep that going against Stafford on Sunday, it could help Detroit’s secondary deal with the Rams’ passing attack.
GO DEEPER
As Lions eye playoff success, former team greats cheer them on: 'Seize the moment'
Rams trending up: Run game
McVay and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur re-created the Rams run game in 2023, moving away from predominantly deploying wide and mid-zone concepts and into league-leading usage of gap and man blocking (with zone still sprinkled in), along with plenty of motion. The offensive line ranks No. 14 in run block win rate, according to ESPN’s metrics, but in partnership with second-year running back Kyren Williams, the entire operation ranks No. 8 in offensive EPA/rush, according to TruMedia.
Williams is a second-team All-Pro who finished third in yards behind Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry — despite missing four games while on injured reserve.
In games Williams has been active, the Rams rank No. 2 in offensive EPA/rush.
GO DEEPER
How RB Kyren Williams lifts, inspires Rams: 'We're different when he plays'
Lions trending up: Health
All things considered, the Lions are relatively healthy at this point in the season. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill and C.J. Gardner-Johnson returned to action last week against the Minnesota Vikings after spending time on IR. WR Jameson Williams and TE Brock Wright practiced all week and are good to go for Sunday. TE Sam LaPorta, who injured his knee last week, said he’s optimistic about playing Sunday night and practiced Friday. He’s officially listed as questionable, but it’s looking more and more like he’s going to give it a go. That would be huge for Goff and the offense.
Advertisement
The Lions will be without some depth players like WR Kalif Raymond, TE James Mitchell, LB James Houston and CB Jerry Jacobs, but they should have enough from the rest of their crew to carry on. The fact most starters are healthy and ready to play is something the Lions shouldn’t take for granted. They’ve avoided major injury.
GO DEEPER
Lions' five Pro Bowl picks a sign of how far team has come, and draft success
Rams trending down: Silent count
The Rams have practiced and even run their walk-throughs on a silent cadence this week, with their outdoor speakers cranked as high as they’ll go to prepare for a very loud atmosphere at Ford Field.
“Fully expect Ford Field to be rocking and not be able to hear much,” receiver Cooper Kupp said. “Matthew’s had a trick in the past where he’s been able to go like this there” — Kupp flapped his hands up and down as though quieting a crowd – “and things get quiet, but I don’t think it’s going to work anymore. …
“We’ve been in these environments before and had to communicate and there’s obviously been an emphasis on that all year. So something that we’re comfortable with and understand that it’s going to be a part of the game.”
The Rams have had to be on their silent cadence in home and away games at times this season. The larger concern might be coach-to-quarterback communication in the headset. McVay has had to burn timeouts in previous games because he and Stafford are late in clarifying both of the calls received by the quarterback.
Lions trending down: Pass coverage
The Lions have struggled to contain the big-name receivers on their schedule in recent games. Vikings star Justin Jefferson went off for 12 receptions, 192 yards and a touchdown in Week 18. In Week 17, the Dallas Cowboys’ Ceedee Lamb totaled 13 receptions for 227 yards and a touchdown. The Lions have allowed a league-leading 30 completions of 16 yards or more in the last four games and have allowed the third-highest explosive play rate during that span. Against a Rams offense featuring the likes of Kupp and Puka Nacua, this secondary will certainly be tested.
Rams trending down: Secondary concerns
The Rams’ secondary is a very inexperienced group minus safeties Jordan Fuller and John Johnson III, and outside cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon.
Where they previously had been structured to prevent explosive pass plays, the Rams have given up 88 pass plays of 16 yards or more this season, recording the 11th-worst explosive play rate in the NFL.
Advertisement
Fuller, a starter and team captain, is questionable for Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, though McVay said the Rams will give Fuller time up to game day to try to work through it. Fuller did not practice all week but did get an increased on-field workout with team athletic trainers Friday.
Minus Fuller, second-year safety Russ Yeast would likely start in their two-high base look. The Rams have also used an effective three-safety nickel subpackage and a four-safety dime subpackage, which McVay said could still be in play even if Fuller missed time.
Lions trending down: Lions’ run game
The Lions’ rush offense has been so good throughout the season, it’s hard to nitpick. They’ve been one of the most efficient rushing offenses in the NFL. But Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson wants more out of his group than what it showed the last two weeks.
“Last game wasn’t quite where we wanted it and then the week before against Dallas was a little bit disappointing,” Johnson said of Detroit’s rushing attack. “Last two games were not what we want.”
Detroit’s offensive rushing success rate of 35.2 percent ranks 21st over the last two weeks. The Lions are averaging 3.6 yards per rush (29th) and 97.5 yards per game (24th). That’s well below their regular-season totals. Look for the Lions to get their ground game back on track.
Rams trending down: Special teams
The Rams have rolled through five kickers (one, Mason Crosby, never kicked in a game for them) this season and rank No. 32 in special teams DVOA. They’ve left 38 points on the board whether from missed field goals or extra points and had two punts returned against them for touchdowns. One cost them a loss in overtime to the Baltimore Ravens, and the other nearly cost them their Week 17 game at the New York Giants.
Brett Maher, who was on the Rams roster to start the season but was released for missing kicks, was re-signed as Week 18 began. Maher missed an extra point in that week’s win at San Francisco.
Advertisement
Special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn spoke emphatically this week about increasing tackling drills for the porous coverage units. He also noted the danger of going against an aggressive Lions team that has put successful fake punts on tape.
“I think they do a great job situationally,” he said. “They’re up in games. They’re backed up fourth-and-mediums to fourth-and-longs, as opposed to when most people think (to fake a punt on) fourth-and-shorts. I think they do a really good job of checking in and out of things and you can see on film (that if) they feel like they have a look, they’re not afraid to run it at any point and you’ve got to be ready for it.”
Lions trending down: Place-kicking
Lions kicker Michael Badgley, who took over for Riley Patterson in December, has missed 2 extra points in his last three games. Granted, one of those misses was blocked — a product of poor protection — but it adds to a roller coaster of a season for Lions kickers. The coaching staff hasn’t seemed to trust Patterson or Badgley to attempt from long range, and that could be an issue in the playoffs.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the Rams aren’t exactly a special teams juggernaut, either. But at the very least, the Lions can’t afford misses in what could be a tight contest.
GO DEEPER
Lions' first playoff win in 32 years was pure grit, followed by tears of joy
(Top photos of Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff: Sean M. Haffey and Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.