One of the best parts of every NHL season is tracking which players take off. It doesn’t matter how many skaters are labeled as can’t-miss breakout picks in September, there are always big performances that nobody saw coming — whether it’s a young piece blossoming into a franchise star, a spare part forcing his way into the team’s core and everything in between.
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There were a few important caveats in making this “most improved” list. For starters, we won’t be looking at rookies.
Second, because there are so many breakout campaigns to choose from, we filtered out already established star players who’ve leveled up, such as Quinn Hughes, Sam Reinhart, William Nylander, Zach Hyman, Valeri Nichushkin, Robert Thomas, Sebastian Aho, Mark Scheifele, Mathew Barzal and more. Yes, all of them took a significant step, but come on, everyone knew they were top talents going into this season.
Third, we’re excluding big-name players in the middle of bounce-back years such as Brock Boeser, Filip Forsberg, Travis Sanheim, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Joel Farabee, Tyler Seguin and Bryan Rust. We’ve already analyzed some of those bounce-backs earlier this season.
Lastly, I consider Evan Bouchard’s breakout to have already happened down the stretch and in the playoffs (17 points in 12 games) last season. That’s why he won’t appear here.
There are so many deserving candidates and whittling this list down was very hard; it definitely isn’t perfect. The players are ranked from No. 10 to No. 1 based on how much they’ve improved, not based on overall impact.
Without further ado, let’s dive in.
10. Alexis Lafrenière, New York Rangers
Lafrenière is emerging as a crucial top-six supporting piece on one of the league’s most dangerous offensive lines.
The 2020 No. 1 pick is tied for 49th among all NHL forwards with 21 five-on-five points, meaning he’s producing at a bona fide first-line rate. He’s a prolific shooter, ranking top 20 among forwards for five-on-five high-danger chances and shots — he’s unlucky not to have more goals.
Rank | Player | 5v5 expected goals | 5v5 actual goals |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | 16 | 18 | |
2 | 14.2 | 8 | |
3 | 13.2 | 14 | |
4 | 13.1 | 17 | |
5 | 11.7 | 7 | |
6 | 11.6 | 8 | |
7 | 11.6 | 12 | |
8 | 11.4 | 12 | |
9 | 11.2 | 8 | |
10 | 11.2 | 12 | |
11 | 11.1 | 5 | |
12 | 10.8 | 13 | |
13 | 10.8 | 7 | |
14 | 10.6 | 14 | |
15 | 10.5 | 13 |
Data courtesy Evolving-Hockey
Lafrenière’s 21-goal, 50-point pace might seem modest for a top-six forward, but he barely sniffs power-play time because of the Rangers’ loaded first unit. He’d have way more points if he had a chance to play first-unit minutes in another situation.
Why has Lafrenière taken such a big step? It starts with Peter Laviolette’s decision to shift the 22-year-old to his off-wing on a line with Artemi Panarin, which has been a slam dunk. Lafrenière’s previously never had a chance to consistently play in the top six with a player of Panarin’s caliber.
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Lafrenière isn’t just riding the coattails of Panarin — he looks way more aggressive and confident as a play driver. That’s a product of his significantly improved skating. Lafrenière used to look lethargic and lack pace. This year, he’s in the top 15 percent of forwards for speed bursts over 20 miles per hour.
Season | Lafreniere speed bursts over 20 mph ▼ | NHL average forward speed bursts over 20 mph | Lafrenière's Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
2023-24 (43 GP) | 85 | 43 | 87th percentile |
2022-23 (81 GP) | 71 | 70 | 56th percentile |
Data courtesy NHL Edge
Lafrenière is leading dangerous rushes and connecting the next play with intelligent passing. Below you’ll see a couple of examples of him driving offense.
The stats may say he’s only on track for an 11-point increase compared to last season, but the difference in how dangerous and impactful Lafreniere looks is night and day.
9. Blake Coleman, Calgary Flames
Coleman built his stellar reputation on relentless speed and forechecking, strong defensive chops and an ability to score 15-20 goals per year. He was the perfect two-way checking line winger during Tampa Bay’s back-to-back Stanley Cup wins. But for all the respect the hockey world has for Coleman, he’s never been known for high-end offensive skill or production.
That’s changing this year.
Coleman leads the Flames with 19 goals, which ties him for 23rd among all NHL players, and 37 points in 43 games. He’s on pace to obliterate his previous career-high of 38 points. You might assume that Coleman’s numbers are juiced from prime offensive opportunities on a team lacking stars but that’s not the case — he barely gets power-play time (only two points on the man advantage) and is sixth among Flames forwards in average ice time. He also plays some of the team’s hardest defensive matchups.
Coleman’s paired his massive offensive spike, with excellent two-way play driving numbers and elite penalty killing results. The Flames have outscored teams 7-6 during Coleman’s 70 short-handed minutes. That’s astonishing.
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There’s probably going to be some offensive regression moving forward — he’s scoring on 18.4 percent of his shots — but based on all-around value, Coleman’s been one of the best wingers in the Pacific Division.
8. Mason McTavish, Anaheim Ducks
This was a toss-up between McTavish and his linemate Frank Vatrano, who’s scoring at a 40-goal, 62-point pace.
McTavish’s breakout is elevating Vatrano more than the other way around, however. McTavish, Vatrano and Ryan Strome were the Ducks’ most dangerous trio early in the season but when McTavish got hurt in early December, Vatrano and Strome combined for zero goals and just one assist in seven games. It’s clear who the main driver of that line was.
McTavish has racked up 27 points in 36 games, which is heady stuff for an NHL sophomore on a bad team. The 20-year-old center is a bona fide dual threat offensively — he’s an equally dangerous playmaker as he is a sniper. He’s made countless plays where he’ll do the heavy lifting to draw defenders’ attention and then kick it out to Vatrano for a gorgeous assist like this.
As a finisher, he can rifle in goals from seemingly impossible angles:
McTavish still needs to improve his defensive game but that will come as he gets older and more experienced.
7. Mathieu Joseph, Ottawa Senators
Joseph is one of the lone bright spots in a dumpster fire of a season for Ottawa. It’s ironic because near the start of the season when the Senators were searching to clear cap space to sign Shane Pinto, Joseph kept coming up as a popular name to discard. It made sense at the time because Joseph, who carries a $2.95 million cap hit through 2025-26, didn’t score a single even-strength goal in 56 games last season.
Pinto’s 41-game suspension deferred that cap dilemma and Joseph’s transformed his game in the meantime, erupting for 19 points in 28 games (he missed 10 games because of injury). The speedy 26-year-old winger has scored the highest five-on-five points per 60 of all Senators players on top of being an effective penalty killer — there’s no talk of him being a cap casualty now.
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Joseph’s always had terrific wheels, which he’s paired with a higher work rate, to make a strong impact retrieving pucks. He can do a lot of the dirty work for a line and has enough skill and intelligence to excel as a complementary piece. It’s also helped that he’s played with higher-quality linemates for the most part (Tyler Motte was his most common five-on-five linemate last season).
6. Alex Vlasic, Chicago Blackhawks
Drafted No. 43 in 2019, there weren’t many who pictured Vlasic as a future top-four defenseman. Vlasic’s already shattered his perceived ceiling, emerging as the Blackhawks’ No. 1 defender on the left side. Some would even argue he’s been the club’s best defenseman period.
Vlasic is developing into an excellent shutdown player. He’s driving elite defensive numbers relative to his teammates and it’s translating on the scoreboard. The 22-year-old owns a plus-nine goal differential at five-on-five (the team’s only defender in positive territory), including a sparkling 1.92 goals-against-per-60 rate, which is remarkable considering how bad Chicago is. It’s all the more impressive when you remember that he plays some of the hardest minutes on the blue line, matching up against top players.
Player | 5v5 TOI % Against Elite Players |
|---|---|
40.3% | |
36.7% | |
35.8% | |
35.0% | |
29.7% | |
26.8% | |
25.4% |
Data courtesy Puck IQ
Standing at a hulking 6-foot-6, Vlasic has always had tremendous reach and defensive potential. The key to his development has been the monumental strides he’s made with his puck skills. In his draft year, he used to handle the puck like a grenade, which undermined his defensive value. Now, he’s skilled enough to feather gorgeous stretch passes like this one:
Vlasic is a top-four building block for the Blackhawks’ blue line.
5. Quinton Byfield, Los Angeles Kings
Byfield, the No. 2 pick in 2020, is making sure nobody can label him a bust. The 21-year-old was first handed a cushy top-line opportunity next to Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe last season. He didn’t quite capitalize on the opportunity, notching just three goals and 22 points in 53 games despite the trio’s strong underlying numbers.
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It’s a totally different story now, with Byfield scoring 12 goals and 30 points in 40 games. He owns a rare package of massive size (6-foot-5), explosive speed and high-end playmaking skill and is rapidly developing into a possession monster. Without the puck, he relentlessly hunts opponents down and wins battles because of his athleticism.
He’s found new confidence and patience with the puck, which combined with his speed, leads to highlight reel plays off the rush:
Byfield still looks like he’s only scratching the surface of his potential, which must be a scary thought for opponents.
4. Joey Daccord, Seattle Kraken
Look, goalies are fickle and infamously volatile. It wouldn’t be a shock if 12 months from now Daccord’s play has fallen off a cliff — that’s just the erratic, roller-coaster risk with every non-elite goaltender in the NHL. The story of his emergence is amazing, though.
Daccord, 27, was never a full-time NHL goalie before this season but has been lights out as Seattle’s starter in 2023-24. Daccord’s rocking a .923 save percentage in 28 games and ranks top 10 among NHL goalies in saving 13.6 goals above expected, according to Evolving-Hockey’s model. He went over a month without a regulation loss, carrying a 10-0-2 record and an absurd .950 save percentage in 12 games, before Monday’s loss to the Penguins. He’s almost single-handedly dragged the Kraken back into the wild-card race.
Could this just be a flash-in-the-pan season? Maybe. But Daccord was stellar in the AHL last season, guiding Coachella Valley to the Calder Cup Final, plus we’ve seen some surprise late bloomers like Jordan Binnington stick, so there are reasons for optimism.
3. Thomas Harley, Dallas Stars
The Stars have been searching for help on the top-four blue line beyond Miro Heiskanen. Dallas still needs an upgrade on Ryan Suter but Harley’s emergence as the team’s second-best defenseman has been a huge story.
Harley spent most of last season in the AHL, established himself as an everyday NHL player in the playoffs and is now a top-four fixture. He’s one of the league’s best defensemen at leading zone exits with control, according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data.
Most 5v5 zone-exits with possession/60 (via @ShutdownLine):
12.97 — Quinn Hughes
12.42 — Erik Karlsson
12.19 — John Marino
11.99 — Victor Hedman
11.97 — Thomas HarleySome of the best offensive-defensemen in hockey. pic.twitter.com/MAQ9a9xFpT
— Big Head Hockey (@BigHeadHcky) January 9, 2024
Harley’s excellent skating ability has also translated to a major offensive impact. He loves jumping up in the play, which is part of the reason he’s tied for fifth-best among all defensemen with nine goals. Here’s an example of how he’s using his feet to activate and score goals.
The big question for Harley in the past was defensive reliability. He’s made decent strides in that area and has continued earning more minutes and tougher matchups, as he’s averaged 21:13 in 21 games since December. Heiskanen went down with a week-to-week lower-body injury in early January, so Harley’s taken over as the Stars’ de facto No. 1 defenseman with an even larger workload recently.
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2. Trevor Moore, Los Angeles Kings
Who honestly thought Moore would be the Kings’ first-half scoring leader with 20 goals in 40 games?
Moore’s always been valuable because of his quickness, tenacity and dogged forechecking but he’s never shown this type of scoring touch — this is only the second time he’s tallied more than 10 goals in a season. The 28-year-old was slowed by injury and mustered just 10 goals and 29 points in 59 games last season. Now, he’s top five among all NHL players with 15 five-on-five goals.
Rank | Player | 5v5 Goals |
|---|---|---|
1 | 18 | |
2 | 18 | |
3 | 17 | |
4 | 15 | |
5 | 15 | |
6 | 15 | |
7 | 14 | |
8 | 14 | |
9 | 14 | |
10 | 13 |
Data via Natural Stattrick
In many cases when a player’s goal totals explode compared to career norms, they’re riding a sky-high shooting percentage that just won’t last. That’s fortunately not the case here. Moore’s improvement as a high-volume shot and scoring chance creator — he’s among the league’s top forwards in both categories — is powering his production uptick and he’s relying on a reasonable 14.6 percent shooting clip. He’s been especially dangerous playing on the second line with Kevin Fiala.
Will Moore slow down in the second half? Probably. It’s nearly impossible to score 40 goals unless you can feast on the power play, which isn’t his strength. But Moore’s made legitimately impressive offensive strides which could be instrumental for a Kings team that’s perhaps still a touch short of high-end goal scoring despite a deep and balanced forward lineup.
1. Noah Dobson, New York Islanders
Dobson is breaking out as a Norris Trophy candidate. The smooth-skating 24-year-old defenseman was already a strong offensive player — he scored in the 50-point range the last two years — but the strides he’s taken to become a well-rounded No. 1 workhorse are massive.
Dobson is third in defensemen scoring with 43 points in 43 games. He’s averaging a monstrous 25:43 per game, which is the second-highest behind only Drew Doughty. That’s about five and a half extra minutes per game compared to last season. He’s also matching up against top players, whereas last year’s matchup data indicated he was fairly sheltered. Some of that has been by necessity — Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield have all missed significant time with injury — but Dobson has held his own.
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Dobson’s two-way metrics aren’t elite — the Isles have been narrowly outshot and out-chanced during his five-on-five shifts — and he’s prone to occasional defensive gaffes (although he’s cut them down significantly). He’ll need to improve on that before he truly enters the Cale Makar/Quinn Hughes/Adam Fox tier of elite young defensemen. But Dobson’s arrived nonetheless as a bona fide No. 1 defenseman and the Islanders’ most valuable player this season.
Honorable mentions
Frank Vatrano, Connor Ingram, Mikael Granlund, Seth Jarvis, Cole Perfetti, Casey Mittelstadt, Stefan Noesen, Jason Dickinson, Michael Carcone, Dakota Joshua, JJ Peterka, Sean Durzi, Alexander Holtz, Simon Holmstrom, Yegor Sharangovich, Warren Foegele
(Top photos of Alexis Lafrenière, Noah Dobson and Trevor Moore: Brad Penner, Sergei Belski and Kirby Lee / USA Today)
