José Ramírez’s Hall of Fame chances: What Adrián Beltré, Scott Rolen tell us about his path

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CLEVELAND — Unless a couple hundred Adrián Beltré advocates mailed their ballots to the wrong address, next week the third baseman will become the 10th player at his position elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in the last 60 years. He’ll also be the second third baseman elected in two years.

Beltré and Scott Rolen provide us with a pair of data points to evaluate a group of eventual candidates that should include Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado, and maybe even Rafael Devers or Austin Riley or Alex Bregman.

And then there’s José Ramírez, the utility infielder-turned-perennial All-Star. Is he charting a path from overlooked, undersized prospect in Baní, Dominican Republic, to eminence in Cooperstown, N.Y.?

Much hinges on how Ramírez’s body holds up as he navigates his 30s. But it also depends on what the resume of a Hall of Fame third baseman actually looks like.

The last two election results have presented us with two drastically different cases. Longevity was paramount for Rolen, who played 17 seasons, and Beltré, who totaled 21. It’ll be no different for Ramírez if he’s to earn induction one day. Whereas Rolen excelled in his 20s, Beltré aged like a Caymus cabernet, elevating his performance after signing a one-year pillow contract with the Boston Red Sox in 2010.

Ramírez turned 31 in September, the age Beltré was when he rerouted his career path toward Cooperstown. If Ramírez follows that trail, he’ll surely have a museum bust, hopefully one with a dislodged helmet.

Ramírez through age-30 season: .854 OPS, five All-Star Games, six top-10 MVP finishes
Beltré through age-30 season: .779 OPS, zero All-Star Games, one top-10 MVP finishes
Beltré after age-30 season: .872 OPS, four All-Star Games, five top-10 MVP finishes

If only we all aged so gracefully. It’s unfair to ask any player to replicate what Beltré accomplished in the latter stages of his career, and it’s why he’ll be a first-ballot selection.

The question for Ramírez is whether his best days are behind him. How many above-average seasons does he have left? Ramírez’s contract with the Cleveland Guardians stretches through the 2028 season. He’ll turn 36 that September, and he might need to keep his foot on the gas until then.

Here’s how Ramírez stacks up with Beltré and Rolen:

Rolen earned tallies from only 10 percent of voters in his first year on the ballot. In his sixth year, he received the 75 percent required for induction. Those traditional milestones of 3,000 hits or 500 home runs usually earn automatic induction, but they certainly aren’t prerequisites.

Of the 10 third basemen elected in the last 60 years, Paul Molitor has the lowest fWAR total, at 67.6. Molitor played until he was 41, and logged minus-0.8 fWAR in his final season.

Ramírez needs another 20.9 fWAR to match him. FanGraphs’ ZiPS model projects him for 5.0 fWAR in 2024. He’s exceeded that total the last three years, and would have cruised past it in 2020. Really, he’s achieved that total in all but one season since he became a full-time starter in 2016. Granted, a player his age tends to start a gradual decline in output, hence the modest forecast.

The shortening of the 2020 season to 60 games might have really cost Ramírez, and it’ll be interesting to see what merits consideration in future debates about Hall of Fame candidates from this era. Ramírez was on pace for 8.6 fWAR that year, which would have been a career high, but instead settled for a total of 3.2. If he was sitting at 52.1 fWAR at the moment, he’d be in position to soar past Molitor’s total in a few years, and Rolen’s total shortly thereafter.

FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection for Ramírez in 2024: .277/.354/.494 slash line, 136 OPS+, 5.0 fWAR

What type of hitter will Ramírez be as he ages? His walk and strikeout rates should allow him to remain productive, even if his power wanes. He’s accessed his power by yanking fastballs, anyway, not by recoding gaudy exit velocities and barrel rates. He’s exhibited no issues with catching up to fastballs as he ages, either, with a .309 average and .536 slugging percentage against heaters last season (and the metrics to mirror those numbers). Last season, he ranked in the 94th percentile in whiff rate and the 98th percentile in strikeout rate.

Two other factors to consider with Ramírez: He annually ranks as one of the league’s top base runners, which should help him continue to pile up stolen bases even as his body aches more. He has never flashed top speed, yet his instincts allow him to steal 20-some bases a year at a high success rate. And though he hasn’t captured a Gold Glove Award, his defense at third base does boost his WAR each year. (He’s been a finalist for the hardware each of the last three seasons.) He has been spending more time at designated hitter the last two years, though, and the reduced defensive responsibility — as long as his defense is a plus — could ever-so-slightly limit his WAR.

So, what shiny round numbers can he reach that would appeal to some voters?

He sits 184 home runs shy of 400.

Plate appearances per home run:

2020: 14.9
2021: 17.7
2022: 23.6
2023: 28.8

ZiPS actually projects him for one home run for every 25 plate appearances in 2024 (26 home runs, 649 plate appearances).

The last eight seasons (if we extrapolate his numbers from the 2020 season), Ramírez has averaged 650 plate appearances, including 685 and 691 plate appearances the last two years, respectively. Only once in the last eight years — the 2019 season, when he had surgery to remove the hamate bone in his hand — has he not appeared in at least 93.8 percent of Cleveland’s games.

So, if he can avoid significant injury, could he hit, say, 120 home runs over the next five years? That would leave him with 336 — one behind Jim Thome for the all-time franchise record — as he embarks on free agency ahead of his age-36 season. (Again, the 2020 season might have cost him 20-25 home runs.)

He sits 673 hits shy of 2,000.

The last three seasons, he has totaled 147, 168 and 172 hits. ZiPS projects him for 158 in 2024. If he avoids a lengthy injured list stint, he should reach 2,000 in a Guardians uniform. Write this down: It’ll happen on May 22, 2028, at Progressive Field when the Guardians host the Nashville Stars. That’ll be more than enough to earn him a spot in the Guardians’ Hall of Fame as he waits for a possible call from Cooperstown.

(Photo: David Berding / Getty Images)