Let the three months of speculation begin. Or continue.
The Chicago Bears’ loss to the Green Bay Packers to end their 2023 season kicked off the offseason, and then general manager Ryan Poles’ end-of-year news conference got things going in the quarterback conversation.
“I know there’s going to be a lot of questions on Justin (Fields), there’s going to be a lot of questions on the draft process,” Poles said last Wednesday. “We are in information-gathering mode right now. We are going to turn every stone to make sure that we are going to make a sound decision for our organization.”
Advertisement
No one expected Poles to, in that moment, commit to Fields, or commit to trading him, but the door is open. In reality, the speculation has been rampant since the Bears traded last year’s No. 1 pick to Carolina. They received the Panthers’ 2024 pick, and that turned out to be the first pick in the draft.
GO DEEPER
Inside Justin Fields' 2023 stats: What the numbers tell us about the Bears' QB situation
It’s a similar spot to last year, but two things are different — Fields just finished his third season, so the evaluation is updated and there are financial decisions to make.
And this draft class is new, including a quarterback who will be the focus of many conversations in town between now and late April.
The Athletic draft analyst Dane Brugler dropped his second mock draft on Tuesday with the Bears deciding to move on from Fields and selecting Caleb Williams. Here’s our reaction to his picks at No. 1 and No. 9, responding to some frequently asked questions on each pick.
Round 1, Pick 1 — Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Dane writes that other NFL teams “believe” that Ryan Poles will trade Justin Fields and take a quarterback. If that’s the case, is it definitely Williams? Are there other QB alternatives, even in a trade-back scenario?
Fishbain: The Bears are going to research every quarterback available. They’ll want to know everything about each prospect. Could they, and the rest of the league, come to a different conclusion about the top prospect come April? Sure, but since 2022, this has been Williams’ spot. I also can’t help but think of the reaction if the Bears stay at No. 1 and take North Carolina’s Drake Maye. I’m intrigued by the possibility of moving back a few spots if the front office falls for Maye or LSU’s Jayden Daniels or Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, but that’s a high-risk maneuver.
Jahns: The only way I see that trade-back scenario shaking out is if the Bears have Maye, Daniels and McCarthy all graded closely, where the separation is extremely minimal in their draft evaluations. It’s possible, though Williams and Maye appear to be ahead of Daniels and especially McCarthy. It could be one of the many scenarios that Poles mentioned as being in his head. The Bears’ grades are far from final. At this moment, it’s difficult to predict which teams will entertain a competitive trade market. So much must shake out. The Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta Falcons and Tennessee Titans all have top-10 picks, but they need to hire head coaches first.
Six-man protection (plus a chip) gives Caleb Williams a secure pocket on 3rd-and-long.
Didn't like first read, climbs and throws a 30+ yard seed. Drop. pic.twitter.com/OWMyphMi9n
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) November 6, 2023
How much could the tenor change over the next couple of months between keeping Fields and drafting a quarterback No. 1?
Jahns: It won’t. It’ll be a nauseating back-and-forth that exists until the point the Bears make a decision and action follows it, whether it’s trading Fields or the announcement of the first selection. But I think Poles likes that. He likes the banter and the intrigue. It helps his cause if he wants to create a robust trade market for Fields or for the first pick. The back-and-forth on ESPN, NFL Network, social media and in the comment section below only helps cloud his true intentions. No one knows what Poles is thinking at the moment. No one knows what he’ll do.
Advertisement
Fishbain: When asked about the value of the No. 1 pick this year compared to last, Poles mentioned last week how much can change. “You’ve all been a part of the draft coverage, things change quick,” he said. “Some of the mocks that you see now are probably not right, so that changes the whole dynamic. It’s tough to answer that question, but I think the first pick is always going to be in demand. How much? I don’t know.” Certainly if Williams, or other QB prospects, have hiccups in the pre-draft process, that could make a difference. The fact that the Bears aren’t exercising Fields’ fifth-year option is good business when they’re in this spot, but it also raises the question, if they don’t know if he’s the guy right now, will they? We should also note that the looming decision on hiring an offensive coordinator will play a role in how this is all analyzed.
GO DEEPER
Young QBs and opportunity: Why the Bears should appeal to all OC candidates
Round 1, Pick 9 — Dallas Turner, edge, Alabama
How would you assess the need for an edge rusher at this point and how it squares with taking one in the top 10?
Fishbain: To echo coach Matt Eberflus from last week, “You can never have enough pass rushers.” The Bears have their blue-chip guy in Montez Sweat, and DeMarcus Walker is a solid starter, but Eberflus wants to keep those guys fresh and rotate along the defensive line. Walker is not a double-digit sack guy, either, so there’s room to upgrade this group via the draft or free agency. Edge rusher should be among the team’s top priorities this offseason, and considering it’s a premium position, using the No. 9 pick on it makes a lot of sense. The Bears would be set with their top three edge rushers for multiple years.
Jahns: When it comes to roster construction, I like the idea of pairing veterans and young players at premium positions. It makes financial sense. The Bears traded for receiver DJ Moore and his big contract. And then the Bears traded for Sweat and signed him to a new $98 million deal. So drafting players at both positions makes sense. But pass rusher is the higher priority. The Bears’ pass rush improved with the Sweat, but their totals still aren’t impressive. Only the Panthers (27) had fewer sacks than the Bears (30) this season.
There is only one FBS player with 4.5+ sacks and 20+ pressures so far in 2023 (via TruMedia). #Alabama Edge Dallas Turner pic.twitter.com/3Jghjs7RUl
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 26, 2023
Dane acknowledges that Bears fans will be upset that the top three receivers — Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers — are off the board. With that in mind, the next pick is Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu. What other routes could the Bears consider at No. 9?
Jahns: Poles believes in left tackle Braxton Jones. He called him a starting left tackle last week. But then he said this: “But if it comes down to a situation to increase competition and that’s what’s best for us, then we’ll do that.” Fashanu and Alabama’s JC Latham — the No. 13 pick for the Las Vegas Raiders in Brugler’s mock draft — could both be potential upgrades. The Bears don’t have a “hole” or a “need” at left tackle. But Poles has always struck me as a GM who isn’t afraid to draft potential upgrades over current starters, either.
Fishbain: Is there that left tackle prospect Poles sees as a “can’t miss” and someone worth taking to replace Jones? That’ll be a wild card to consider over the next few months, but the Bears also might have a pretty good situation with Jones, who we can expect to keep improving at a low cost for another year. A potential Fields trade could affect this, but the Bears currently don’t have a second-round pick because of the Sweat trade. If all the receivers are gone, is this a spot to trade back a few spots, maybe recoup a second-rounder, and take a receiver, edge rusher or offensive lineman in the teens? I’d expect Poles to be flexible.
GO DEEPER
Justin Fields, Caleb Williams or Drake Maye? Bears QB intrigue is just beginning
(Photo: Jason Parkhurst / USA Today)