How will Nick Saban’s departure affect Alabama on the trail? Recruiting mailbag

Happy (belated) New Year and welcome back to another recruiting mailbag.

It’s hard to believe we’re just a month away from putting a bow on the Class of 2024 as we look ahead to the Class of 2025. We’ve already got a few fireworks — including top prospect Bryce Underwood committing to LSU and fellow five-star quarterback Julian Lewis reclassifying from 2026 to 2025. Coaches are back in the swing of things with the contact period, which runs through Feb. 3 and allows them to make in-person, off-campus visits. And, of course, all eyes are on Alabama’s roster.

Let’s dive in. Thank you so much for your questions.

The obvious one. What does Nick Saban leaving do to Alabama’s recruiting class and does this mean more players on the roster are headed to the portal? — Thad N.

Will Alabama still be one of the top two recruiting destinations (along with Georgia)? — Matt A.

Kicking this mailbag off with Alabama is a great place to start, and I’m combining these two questions since they’re linked.

Since Saban retired last week, the Crimson Tide have lost just one commit in their 2024 class, but it’s a big one: five-star wide receiver Ryan Williams, who reclassified from 2025 to 2024 and is picking among Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M and Texas in February. Williams sang Saban’s praises last month before the Under Armour Next All-America game in Orlando, Fla., and mentioned multiple times how appreciative he was that Saban was understanding about his desire to take additional official visits as he wrapped up his recruitment despite being committed to the Crimson Tide since October 2022. (Note: As of Friday morning, Julian Sayin, another Class of 2024 Alabama recruit, is on the move.)

On Stars Matter today, @MitchLight, @Manny_Navarro, @gmraynor and me broke down the Alabama recruiting situation extensively.

Manny said something crazy. https://t.co/3faLhs3XRY pic.twitter.com/MqsDv7fblT

— Ari Wasserman (@AriWasserman) January 18, 2024

Playing for Saban was Alabama’s greatest pitch for a dozen-plus years. It makes sense that players look at Alabama differently without him, and it will be interesting to see how the rest of the 2024 class shakes out. Those signees still have about three weeks to enter their name in the portal if they decide they want to play elsewhere. As for the current roster, we have to assume more transfers are coming. Former five-star tackle Kadyn Proctor made plans to enter Wednesday. So did star former five-star safety Caleb Downs — a massive loss for new coach Kalen DeBoer, if not unexpected.

The bigger hits to Alabama’s recruiting have come in the Class of 2025. The Crimson Tide have lost five commitments since Saban’s announcement: five-star wide receiver Jaime Ffrench, five-star edge Zion Grady, four-star edge Javion Hilson and four-star tackles Mason Short and Dontrell Glover. All are top 200 players. Ffrench, Grady and Hilson are top 50 players.

It will be interesting to see how quickly DeBoer can make inroads at Alabama high schools and if Saban’s legacy is enough to keep recruits interested in the program during the transition — especially as Hugh Freeze is making a splash on the trail at rival Auburn. DeBoer is known as a program builder, but his 2024 class at Washington gave me a little bit of pause — just six blue-chippers and no top 250 players. That said, DeBoer had one of the nation’s most exciting offenses at Washington with Michael Penix Jr. and a group of stud wide receivers, which has to be enticing for top recruits. And he’s now in a better geographic area with easier access to talent.

My hunch is that much of how the Crimson Tide will recruit will be dependent on how the team looks in 2024. Top players could be in wait-and-see mode as the new staff takes over. In the meantime, DeBoer must get into high schools as soon as possible. Hiring South Alabama head coach Kane Wommack as his defensive coordinator should help with that. He also has to establish roots in the always-talent-rich state of Georgia if he’s going to keep the Crimson Tide among the elite in the SEC.

As a Saban protege and arguably the top coach in the country right now, Georgia’s Kirby Smart can now pounce on prospects he might have once lost to Saban. I’d put the Bulldogs at No. 1 and either Texas or Ohio State at No. 2 now in terms of most desirable destinations. But I can’t wait to see how it all shakes out.

Do you think the UW Huskies will see a boost in their recruiting in the near future with their recent run to the CFP championship game? — Emily H.

Washington stumped me this year. DeBoer enjoyed immediate success in his first year and then things really took off this season, yet the Huskies’ recruiting never really got rolling in the Class of 2024. They signed just 15 players in December, with four-star athlete Peyton Waters coming in as the highest-ranked prospect at No. 259 nationally. Now DeBoer has left and taken a couple of his key coaches with him.

I do think Washington could see a boost in its recruiting in the near future, but I don’t know that it will be because of the Playoff. It’s more so because of the hire of Jedd Fisch from Arizona. Fisch makes recruiting top talent in his backyard a priority and proved as much with the Wildcats’ pursuit of top-50 edge Elijah Rushing, who committed to Arizona before flipping to Oregon. We had Fisch on our “Stars Matter” podcast last month, and hearing him talk about his recruiting philosophies will convince you he has what it takes to be successful in this new era of college football. Arizona signed a top-25 class in 2022, his first full class, with an average player rating of 87.23 — three-plus points higher than the year before. Fisch also landed the program’s highest-rated prospect of the modern era in top-100 wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. It won’t surprise me at all if Fisch has Washington humming.

Grace, what is Chip Kelly doing wrong at UCLA in terms of recruiting? He’s had three winning seasons in a row and yet the high school players are still not committing to him. Getting in highly rated players has never been an issue until his arrival. What’s going on here? — Sal J.

I want to be careful here because I don’t want to speak for Kelly, but from the outside looking in, I wonder how much he enjoys recruiting. It’s not for everyone — it’s time-consuming, frustrating and requires constant schmoozing with 16-year-olds and their parents. I’m sure he got used to not having to do it in the NFL. But when college coaches don’t want to recruit aggressively, their rosters take a hit.

Kelly has been on record saying he likes to recruit the portal, in part because portal players tend to be more down to business and less about the pomp and circumstance that comes with high school recruiting. UCLA has just 10 high school signees in its Class of 2024, with one top-250 prospect. But the Bruins have nine incoming transfers committed to the program, six from the Power 5 ranks. Ideally, the perfect formula is to have a mix of both — portal prospects and high school talent — to create a nice balance. But it’s hard. UCLA also has to compete with USC and Oregon for recruits, which only complicates matters. And as Kelly said himself, so much of recruiting is about name, image and likeness these days. Without a competitive setup there, it’s hard to keep up.

Grace … of late you see very little written about Texas A&M. In a way, I am not complaining, as no news was usually good news :-). However, some news now under Mike Elko would be nice or possibly encouraging. Anything to report? — Ce S.

Ha! This made me laugh. No news usually is good news, but with everything Texas A&M fans have been through in the last year, I can understand your desire for the Aggies to come back into the headlines for some recruiting wins under Elko.

All things considered, I’ve been impressed with the Aggies’ 2024 class. After the school fired Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M lost eight commits, most notably five-star wide receiver Cam Coleman, who admitted he would have stayed with the Aggies had Fisher been retained. And yet Elko’s 2024 class still ranks seventh nationally in average player rating, behind only Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, Auburn and Oregon. The Aggies have 14 commits, 13 of whom are blue-chippers — and still have a chance to land five-star Terry Bussey. Not too shabby.

The Aggies have just one commit in their 2025 class, three-star offensive lineman Joshua Moses out of Spring, Texas. But I’d be willing to bet Elko is making the rounds at Texas high schools as we speak, tapping back into his roots as the program’s former defensive coordinator. The NIL money is there, too, as we know. Assuming something bananas doesn’t go wrong, he should be just fine.

Also, it must be noted that Texas A&M has been on an impressive run in the portal, adding players to fortify the 2024 roster. In this era, sometimes a new staff’s time is better served in the short term working the portal.

As a Wolverine fan, I’m proud that we had enough “stuff” to win the natty. However, our recruiting is pedestrian, especially based on recent successes. Grace, what gives?! — Lance M.

In the last few days alone, we’ve seen Jim Harbaugh interview for jobs with the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers. It’s obvious he’s still not totally sold on staying at Michigan as we ride this roller coaster for yet another offseason. It’s hard to commit to recruiting when other jobs are on your mind. And it’s even harder to convince players to commit for your program when they can very publicly see that you could be on the way out.

To your point, Harbaugh defied the conventional path of talent accumulation and still won a national championship, beating Alabama along the way. But my two cents is that Michigan is always going to be in this weird limbo until he leaves for the NFL. If he bounces, it feels like offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore — the obvious candidate to replace him — could get things rolling again.

It would be fascinating to see how many of the top 25 players in the recruiting rankings are still with the teams they signed with in 2021 and 2022. Can you do a quick check of these numbers? It would seem it is not just about recruiting rankings but retention in this era of the Wild Wild West portal. — Mike B.

I would love to check those numbers — and then use them for trivia on our “Stars Matter” podcast so I can ask the questions and avoid taking another “L,” as is usually the case when Ari Wasserman and Manny Navarro crush me every week.

For 2022, here are the top 25 players by the 247Sports Composite and their status:

CB Travis Hunter — signed with Jackson State, transferred to Colorado
DL Walter Nolen — signed with Texas A&M, committed to Ole Miss as a transfer
WR Luther Burden III — signed with Missouri, still with the Tigers
DL Mykel Williams — signed with Georgia, still with the Bulldogs
CB Domani Jackson — signed with USC, committed to Alabama as a transfer
QB Cade Klubnik — signed with Clemson, still with the Tigers
LB C.J. Hicks — signed with Ohio State, still with the Buckeyes
LB Harold Perkins — signed with LSU, still with the Tigers
DL Shemar Stewart — signed with Texas A&M, still with the Aggies
OL DJ Campbell — signed with Texas, still with the Longhorns
WR Evan Stewart — signed with Texas A&M, committed to Oregon as a transfer
S Sonny Styles — signed with Ohio State, still with the Buckeyes
OL Zach Rice — signed with North Carolina, still with the Tar Heels
DL LT Overton — signed with Texas A&M, committed to Alabama as a transfer
CB Will Johnson — signed with Michigan, still with the Wolverines
OT Josh Conerly Jr. — signed with Oregon, still with the Ducks
DL Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy — signed with Texas A&M, still with the Aggies
DE Jeremiah Alexander — signed with Alabama, still with the Crimson Tide
ATH Malaki Starks — signed with Georgia, still with the Bulldogs
DL Travis Shaw — signed with North Carolina, still with the Tar Heels
DE Jihaad Campbell — signed with Alabama, still with the Crimson Tide
QB Conner Weigman — signed with Texas A&M, still with the Aggies
CB Denver Harris — signed with Texas A&M, transferred to LSU, currently in the portal
DE Marvin Jones Jr. — signed with Georgia, transferred to Florida State
WR Chris Marshall — signed with Texas A&M, transferred to Ole Miss, now at Kilgore (Texas) College

So 17 out of 25 in the Class of 2022 are still with the programs they signed with. That surprised me, although we could see more Alabama players enter as the weeks trickle on. (Also, oof, Texas A&M.)

For 2023:

QB Arch Manning — signed with Texas, still with the Longhorns
DE Keon Keeley — signed with Alabama, still with the Crimson Tide
QB Nico Iamaleava — signed with Tennessee, still with the Vols
WR Zachariah Branch — signed with USC, still with the Trojans
QB Dante Moore — signed with UCLA, committed to Oregon as a transfer
S Caleb Downs — signed with Alabama, entered the portal Wednesday
DL DJ Hicks — signed with Texas A&M, still with the Aggies
QB Jackson Arnold — signed with Oklahoma, still with the Sooners
OT Kadyn Proctor — signed with Alabama, entered the portal Wednesday
OT Francis Mauigoa — signed with Miami, still with the Hurricanes
DE Adepoju Adebawore — signed with Oklahoma, still with the Sooners
QB Malachi Nelson — signed with USC, transferred to Boise State
CB Cormani McClain — signed with Colorado, still with the Buffs
LB Suntarine Perkins — signed with Ole Miss, still with the Rebels
OT Lance Heard — signed with LSU, currently in the portal
S Peyton Bowen — signed with Oklahoma, still with the Sooners
TE Duce Robinson — signed with USC, still with the Trojans
LB Anthony Hill Jr. — signed with Texas, still with the Longhorns
ATH Nyck Harbor — signed with South Carolina, still with the Gamecocks
LB Damon Wilson Jr. — signed with Georgia, still with the Bulldogs
WR Jurrion Dickey — signed with Oregon, still with the Ducks
RB CJ Baxter — signed with Texas, still with the Longhorns
OT Samson Okunlola — signed with Miami, still with the Hurricanes
RB Justice Haynes — signed with Alabama, still with the Crimson Tide
CB Dezz Ricks — signed with Alabama, committed to Texas A&M as a transfer

So 19 out of 25 for the Class of 2023, making it 36 out of 50 for the two classes combined. Thanks for the question. I love it when the questions lead to me learning something new.

(Photo: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)