Stars Mailbag Vol. 24: Prospect impressions, Hintz of success, and training camp

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 23:  Miro Heiskanen, third overall pick of the Dallas Stars, poses for a portrait during Round One of the 2017 NHL Draft at United Center on June 23, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)
By Sean Shapiro
Sep 13, 2018

If Pacioretty or Skinner were dealt to Dallas, who would we have traded in terms of what Montreal and Carolina got? (From Joshua P.)

There were musings that the Stars had made a similar offer for Pacioretty around the trade deadline, but from what I’ve heard that is false. While Pacioretty may have been in the Stars’ conversations, they did not make an offer comparable to the prospect, second-round pick, and roster player that ended up moving the Montreal captain to Vegas.

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Frankly the Stars probably didn’t have the pieces to make the trade that Vegas did. The Stars’ top prospect, Miro Heiskanen, is not available and Dallas doesn’t have a prospect available at the Nick Suzuki level that they were willing to trade. If Dallas were to make a trade they would have had to include a first-round pick and likely would have had to move Julius Honka.

 

Sean,
I have lived and died with the Stars for years. But I can’t see them as more than a bubble team with this roster unless everything falls in the right basket. I am so disappointed that Jim Nill, who I like and respect, has not obtained the top 6 forward we so badly need. Skinner and Patches were both obtained for virtually nothing. Stone, Panarin and Kessel are still out there. Any chances? (From Barry S.)

There is a chance that they could make a trade for Artemi Panarin, but it would come at a hefty price because Columbus is still a good hockey team that is trying to win this year.

The other two are extremely unlikely, but if you want to play armchair GM it’s a fun way to kill the time before training camp. However, don’t lose any sleep waiting for that type of move.

 

do you ever hang out on DBD? =) (From Matt F.)

I do my best to try and read everything related to the Stars, and that includes reading the coverage over at Defending Big D.

There are quite a few quality people working at the site and the managing editor, Taylor Baird, does a nice job running their coverage. It’s always good to have another local voice covering the team, I think we all get better because of friendly competition within the coverage zone.

 

What is your prediction for the 6 defensemen and what pairs they will be in? (From Blake P.)

I think it shakes out this way:

Esa LindellJohn Klingberg
Miro Heiskanen — Stephen Johns
Marc Methot — Julius Honka

The minutes might be more evenly-distributed at the beginning, but as the season progresses I expect Heiskanen and Johns to be solidly entrenched as the second pair.

 

do Denis Guryanov and/or Roope Hintz look like they’re ready to crack the Stars’ lineup/is there even room for them? (From Charles W.)

In my view, Roope Hintz makes the Stars better and is a preferable option to some of the other bottom-six options, including Gemel Smith and Remi Elie. If I’m fielding the optimal Stars lineup, Hintz is the fourth-line center this season.

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If that happens the Stars will have to waive either Smith, Elie, or Jason Dickinson and send them to the AHL.

Desnis Gurianov is not close to playing in the NHL. We’ve covered his struggles in the past and touched on him in the mailbag two weeks ago.

 

Since Guryanov seems to be struggling in the Stars system, could he be a possibility to package in a trade for an asset we do need? Say, Panarin? (From Emma G.)

I would have no problem trading Gurianov at this point. If you can get a team to bite on him as a top prospect you take the deal and run.

 

Hey Sean what are the realistic expectations for Caamano and Mascherin, do you see them being able to have an impact on the Stars’ (NHL) roster in terms of being top 6 players within the next couple years? (From Adam Q.)

When setting realistic expectations I look at Nick Caamano as an ideal third-line player. He can be a future top-six option in the NHL, but on a good team he’s best served as a two-way forward on the third line that can contribute offensively and be used in tough defensive situations.

Adam Mascherin is more of a top-six option because of his shot. It’s an elite weapon and if he can get up to speed in the NHL and is paired with the right center he could be threat to score 20 to 25 goals per season at some point.

Ideally, they both are pushing for NHL duty within 18 months. That’s hard to do in the Stars system since there is quite a backlog of forwards, but by the time they are both 22 Caamano and Mascherin should be depth forwards on the cheap who make it easier to pay big bucks for the top-six.

 

Ben Gleason has been the Stars best defenseman (not named Miro) at the Traverse City Tournament. Two part question here: 1) Any chance we could get a film room on him? 2) Assuming he gets a contract, what’s his ceiling?

As always, keep up the good work Sean. (From Josh S.)

Thanks for reading, Josh.

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I agree on Gleason, he had a superb showing in the tournament and made the most of his free agent invite. I’ll hold off on the film room for now, but if he gets signed by Dallas (which is possible) I’ll put him in the queue for a film room after we have a bit more video on hand.

This weekend was my first viewing of Gleason so recency bias comes into play, but when thinking about his ceiling I think he has the tools to be a top-four defender on the right team. He moves the puck extremely well and plays a style that fits well with where the NHL is going. He’ll have to get better defensively, but he doesn’t have extreme gaps in his game like some other offensive-minded defenseman do at this stage in their careers.

 

Is it October yet? (From Trevor S.)

No, it’s September 13. But training camp does start tomorrow.

 

With hindsight being 20/20, would you (as a potential GM) still take Dellandrea as a 13th pick in this year draft, given his performance in Traverse City? Or rather Veleno or somebody else? (From Juraj K.)

I never had Ty Dellandrea on my draft board at No. 13, so when the Stars took him back in June it was a bit of a surprise to me when the pick was announced. I was certain they were going to take Joseph Veleno, and I think I even had a Tweet saved and ready to go that I had to re-write from the draft room floor.

Looking at their performances this weekend, I thought Veleno was the more dynamic player. Dellandrea may actually be the more complete player in all three zones, but Veleno did more for me as an offensive force and a player with the long-term ceiling to impact the top-six offensively.

With that in mind, I probably would take Veleno at this point. Detroit had a hell of a draft in selecting both him and Zadina.

 

How did Dellandrea look? He was one of the youngest ones there, but I was hoping he’d show some of the promise that led Nill to draft him over some bigger names. (From Drew I.)

No matter what you think about where he was drafted, Dellandrea was good in the tournament. He plays a strong 200-foot game, back checks extremely well, and is rarely out of position when he doesn’t have the puck on his stick.

There is promise there and he looks like a future NHL player, but I just didn’t see the extreme upside that screams out ‘top-15 pick.’

 

Which players on the team are roommates? (From Chad L.)

As far as I know all of the NHL players have their own place at this point. When players unexpectedly make the NHL roster they end up finding a space in a teammate’s home, like Mattias Janmark did during his rookie season with John Klingberg or how Radek Faksa lived with Ales Hemsky for a bit.

 

What was the highlight for you from the Traverse City tournament? (From Grant D.)

From a non-hockey standpoint, it was enjoying the lake and touring wineries on Sunday. We have family in the midwest so my in-laws drove up to Traverse City for the weekend and we had a babysitter for EV, which allowed us to sip wine guilt-free.

From a hockey standpoint, it was enjoyable to finally see Heiskanen in person. I’ve watched him play countless times on film since he was drafted by the Stars, but being able to observe his game in person added a new perspective.

 

Who surprised you in Traverse City and who disappointed you? Any outsiders ready to jump into the Stars line-up? Thanks! (From Garret M.)

We published my whole list of observations earlier this week, which you can check out here.

To add a bit more to that, I was pleasantly surprised by Curtis Douglas and Jermain Loewen. I expected them to be more awkward and uncomfortable with the speed of the tournament, but they showed they could play and were a net positive on the ice.

I don’t like to use the word ‘disappointed’ after a prospect tournament, but I was hoping to see a bit more from Brett Davis earlier in the tournament because I had heard several positive things about his game.

 

Are the Stars planning to have the AHL team run a similar system to Monty’s to make callups easier, or will Laxdal be running a similar system to last year’s? (From Carl E.)

It’ll be a similar system, but it will also have its own quirks. The Stars have always allowed their AHL team to have its own autonomy with a bit of oversight.

 

Will you be at all the Stars’ road games this season? (From James L.)

I will be traveling for roughly half the Stars’ road games this season. At last check I think I’ve booked flights for 17 or 18 games so far. We do our best here to make sure there is never a stretch of more than four days where we aren’t around the team.

We will cover every game and I plan to file a 20/20 from each contest, even the ones for which I’m not physically in the building.

 

I’m going to guess that Erik Karlsson is traded before this mailbag is done. Even with that said, what do you envision the changes to the NHL and AHL rosters would be if we landed EK? In other words, what pieces do you see Dallas giving up to get EK, and how would that change the NHL and AHL rosters? I’m assuming it would open the doors for some AHL prospects to play in the NHL, that is if we don’t trade them (Hintz, Robertson, etc. (From Jon W.)

In reality, a trade for Erik Karlsson wouldn’t open up that many roster spots. Karlsson would take a spot on defense and the Stars would likely lose one forward, meaning instead of having 15 forwards on one-way contracts they would have 14 headed into training camp.

 

When will Erik Karlsson’s Stars jersey be available for purchase? (From Joe T.)

I think you can customize any jersey with any name and number in the team shop.

 

What Is a realistic amount you see Roman Polak playing this season? What was the reasoning behind signing him? (From Andrew G.)

This is hard to project, but I’ll go with 20 to 25 games because of a combination of injuries and the occasional scratch for other reasons. Polak was essentially signed as a seventh defender and insurance policy in case young defenders like Julius Honka or Miro Heiskanen aren’t up to snuff.

Personally, it’s not a move I would have made. I would have trusted Dillon Heatherington in that role as the seventh defender.

 

By this time next week, the preseason tour will have begun. What should we be looking out for in those first demonstrations of the new roster? (From Matt N.)

I had a conversation with Jim Montgomery earlier this week about his approach to the preseason. He said it’s probably going to be a mix of veterans and younger players in the first preseason game, while he also added that he’d like to work on his power play early on and that will impact roster decisions.

 

Are we in a bad situation by having too many offensive defensemen? It looks like all three of our D lines will have an offensive defenseman. Klingberg, Miro and Honka and we are “in the mix” for Karlsson, granted we’d likely move Honka if we do get him. Seems we don’t have a shut down pair like we did last year with Pateryn and Hamhuis. (From Michael A.)

It’s a good mix in my opinion. You want each defensive pairing to be a threat with the puck and I dislike the connotation that puck-moving blue-liners aren’t good defensively. You don’t need a shutdown pair if you have the puck more often than the other team.

 

How far do you go in your research on new signings before the season? Obviously, on-ice exploits are important, but do you ever try to find out things for working with players off the ice? E.g. who is a good quote? How do certain players like to be approached? (From Will E.)

This wasn’t your question, but I guess I should clarify that I don’t work for the team and don’t make any signings or trades.

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Now, to actually answer your question. Once a player is signed I try to do as much research as possible on that player. That includes reading past stories, talking to other reporters who have covered the player, and seeing what comes up on Google.

That research is important when building a relationship with a player and building relationships is how you end up finding the best stories to share.

 

I have always thought we got Jason Robertson for really good value in the second round. If he continues to develop his strength and skating, what do you think is his ceiling as a player? Top 6 forward? (From Jacob E.)

His ceiling is a top-six winger that scores on the regular. Whether he can reach that or not depends on how well he continues to progress and embrace the challenges with his fitness and his skating. At this moment he’s on the right track and he looks like a completely different person after he was out of shape four months back.

 

where are the best places in Boise to hang out and talk Stars hockey? (From Michael D.)

Maybe some of our Boise-based readers can help out in the comments. I’m hoping to find a place for Saturday evening where we can have an informal gathering of readers and Stars fans that made the trip or are based in Boise.

 

Honka will take a big step this year? (From Stephan G.)

He had better, he’s going to be given a chance to prove himself and it’s an opportunity he needs to seize.

 

I’m planning a Hockey trip with my dad who turns 60 next year. We’ve been talking about this for years but never saw the right trip and timing wasn’t right. I lived in NY for years so that portion of the country is dead to me for obvious reasons and trips taken. We’re looking at end of March, WPG CGY EDM and VAN. Any suggestions on this games to attend and which cities you’ve enjoyed the most?

Also, what are your thoughts on Mascherin being a legitimate call up some point during the year? I know Hintz is the obvious favorite to be first call-up if he doesn’t make the team out of camp. If he makes team I’d assume Elie/Smith are first call-ups due to their experience. Very interested in what Mascherin brings to the table playing a heavy fast game in lieu of his size.

As always thank you (From Blake R.)

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Blake, sounds like a great idea and I’m sure you and your dad will enjoy whatever trip you take. I have not been to Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver yet, I’m making my first trip to those cities this season.

I enjoyed my time in Winnipeg last season. From a hockey standpoint, it’s a great place to watch a game and I really like the atmosphere around the arena. The food was also really good and there were quite a few options. I’ve only ever heard good things about Vancouver, so that would be high on my list if I were you. I can probably better answer questions about those other cities after traveling there in late November for the first swing through that area.

We touched a bit on Mascherin earlier, but I think he’s an intriguing name who could be in the call-up mix because of what he brings offensively. In order for him to succeed he’ll need to play in a spot where he gets a chance to use his shot and be a threat in that capacity.

I do think we are overlooking Michael Mersch as a call-up option. In my view, he’s ready for the NHL and could be a sneaky good signing based on his time in the Kings organization.

 

So is the roster “it” or are there likely to be some trades before we get started in October? (Paul B.)

Trades are possible, but don’t hold your breath.

 

Most likely player with no NHL experience outside of Hintz and Miro to make their NHL debut this season? (From Zach W.)

Colton Point or Landon Bow after an injury to one of the NHL goalies.

 

Hey Sean, just wanted to say thank you for all the great content you pump out, it’s awesome! With that, it looks likely that the Stars and Seguin are getting close to signing a contract, Do you think there is an internal cap within the system that Jim Nill is trying to sign Seguin near the cap hit of Jamie Benn’s contract? If not what is your opinion on what his new AAV will be? (From Tyler C.)

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Thanks for the compliment Tyler, glad you are enjoying our coverage.

I know that in the past the Stars would have hoped for Tyler Seguin’s contract to contain an average annual value similar to Jamie Benn’s, but that isn’t realistic. If I had to guess, I think the sides will get something done with an AAV around 10.5 million.

 

What does a playing career arc look like for a prospect who’s not rushed to the NHL or even AHL. Someone like Jermaine Loewen for example. (From Jeffery H.)

For Loewen’s career arc this is the most likely path:

He spends one more season in the WHL as an overager, then joins the Texas Stars on an ATO in the spring and finishes the season as a practice player or “Black Ace” in Cedar Park. He’ll need to turn pro after that, and that point Loewen’s performance will determine whether he starts in the ECHL with Idaho or in the AHL with Texas.

 

I’m kind of surprised the Stars are going with (likely) Point and Bow in the AHL. Do you see the Stars signing another goalie before the season starts? (From Darian M.)

They are not signing another goalie before the season. Colton Point, Landon Bow, and Philippe Desrosiers are the goalies fighting for AHL playing time. If the Stars were going bring back a veteran goalie they likely would have re-signed Mike McKenna.

 

Please give us a very realistic outlook on the upcoming season. Wins, point totals, playoffs?, etc.

Thanks! (From Robert P.)

Realistically you can expect the Stars to finish somewhere between 88 and 98 points. If it’s closer to 98 points they’ll be in the wild card mix and competing for a playoff spot, if it’s closer to 88 points they’ll be on the outside of the race.

The Central Division is going to be tough, and the Stars head into the season as the fourth or fifth best team.

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