Can the Green Bay Packers finally defeat their playoff boogeyman when they visit the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC divisional round on Saturday night?
Packers beat writer Matt Schneidman and 49ers beat writer David Lombardi go back and forth on a handful of topics to preview the game.
Let’s dive in.
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Matt Schneidman: If there’s one area of these vaunted 49ers that the Packers might be able to exploit, what would that be?
David Lombardi: The run defense. The 49ers rank No. 26 in expected points added (EPA) against the run, and it’s been an issue for most of the season. Now, that issue has been mostly hidden because of how explosive the 49ers offense has been. But it’s there, and San Francisco hopes that the return of defensive tackle Arik Armstead — who’s been dominant against the Packers in games past — helps ameliorate it. The 49ers will also be counting on defensive end Chase Young to carry a heavier load with Clelin Ferrell, a key early-down edge setter, out with a knee injury.
If Green Bay gets rolling with Aaron Jones, it can diffuse the 49ers’ pass rush and control game flow with a balanced offense — like it did in Dallas. The 49ers have emphasized stopping that this week.
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Schneidman: It’s interesting you say that, and why I think there’s more to rush defense stats than just rushing yards allowed per game. The 49ers ranked third in that category during the regular season, but it seems to be an area Jones can exploit. The Packers didn’t have a 100-yard rusher for the season’s first 14 games. Jones has hit at least 20 carries and at least 110 rushing yards in each of the last four games, including his three-touchdown showing against the Dallas Cowboys. Jones didn’t rip off many chunk gains in the first half of his carries last Sunday, but it was the threat of the run and wearing the Cowboys’ front down that looked to be effective, especially in opening things up for the Packers’ passing game. Doing that again against the 49ers would be huge for the Packers, not only for their offense but to give a defense that I’m sure will be tested time to rest on the sideline.
Speaking of Green Bay’s defense — shocker — the Packers have struggled mightily at times this season to stop the run, just like they did against Raheem Mostert and company in the 2019 NFC Championship Game. What has been most impressive watching Christian McCaffrey this season?
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Lombardi: He’s just a complete player. One might think that, with his quickness, McCaffrey might not be a power back. But he’s rarely finished runs on his back this season. There’s a reason opponents have incurred so many personal fouls tackling McCaffrey — because he’s so hard to bring down.
There’s real symmetry here because the 49ers and Packers offenses are built around run-pass adaptability — McCaffrey’s ultimate specialty — and controlling game flow by leveraging it.
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The stat that’s stood out most to me about Green Bay: The Packers ranked No. 28 in time of possession from Weeks 1 through 8, but they’ve ranked No. 2 in that category since Week 9. This is obviously a product of Jordan Love’s awakening. My question for you, since you’ve watched all these games in real time and have a true grasp of their flow: How well has the Packers offense shielded its defense — has it been as profound as the numbers suggest?
Schneidman: It’s funny you say that because I remember cornerback Jaire Alexander talking with us after a 17-13 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5 and he suggested the Packers might have to keep teams out of the end zone entirely to help the offense while Love and company found their mojo. Now, it’s the offense that anyone who’s watched this team since midseason feels more comfortable with. In Week 4, for example, Green Bay’s offense couldn’t sustain any drives against the Detroit Lions in the first half and the defense was gassed, leading to a 27-3 halftime lead for Detroit. That’s what you’re talking about, but on the flip side, in terms of the offense not being able to help the defense early in the season.
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It was the offense in Week 16 against the Carolina Panthers, however, that scored 33 points and did just enough in a 33-30 win despite the defense collapsing in the fourth quarter. In the last three games, the Packers have been playing sound complementary football against the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears and Cowboys, and controlling the clock on offense against the 49ers will be paramount. That will require protecting Love like the Packers did last Sunday.
They only allowed pressure on four of Love’s 21 dropbacks against the Cowboys and he wasn’t sacked. Could the 49ers pose a stiffer challenge for Green Bay’s offensive line?
Lombardi: The Packers are again a top team in ESPN’s pass-block win rate, ranking No. 2 this season. They’ve consistently been at the top over the past few seasons. When the 49ers’ pass rush was at its best in 2019, it twice overwhelmed that good Green Bay offensive line. But when San Francisco’s pass rush wasn’t as strong in 2021, the Packers held a much stronger front. The 49ers needed a superb game from their defensive backs in coverage to win in that postseason nail-biter.
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What will we see this season? That’s what makes the playoffs fun. It’s a big moment for Young, who can prove that he’s still a bona fide star rushing opposite Nick Bosa. Armstead will pair with Javon Hargrave, one of the league’s best interior rushers, to round out the Alpha unit of the line. It’s an impressive collection of talent, and the key probably circles back to creating pass-rushing opportunities. And that begins with stopping the run.
Schneidman: All right, before we get to score predictions, let’s quickly talk quarterbacks. Stopping the run may be the biggest issue for the 49ers, but they also have to stop arguably the NFL’s best quarterback since the halfway point of the season in Love. Since Week 11, Love has thrown 21 touchdowns and only one interception. That doesn’t just happen by accident. His accuracy has been pristine, his decision-making when throwing the ball impeccable and his ability to make off-platform and off-schedule throws reminiscent of his predecessor. It helps that the offensive line, running game and pass catchers are carrying their weight more so than they did during the first half of the season, but Love is playing well enough that the Packers should have a chance in any game they play.
Despite what Packers defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt said this week, that Purdy essentially crumbles under pressure, he ranked first in the league in passer rating when pressured. How misguided is the notion that Purdy is only good because of his supporting cast?
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Lombardi: It’s very misguided because that entire premise is flawed. Football is the ultimate team sport: 11 men all have distinct jobs and it’s necessary for all of them to work cohesively for an offense to maximize efficiency. So every quarterback is a system quarterback, because that’s just the nature of football. The top performers at the position invariably mesh well with their play callers and their weapons.
With that out of the way, let’s just look at the tape — and the data that allows us to quantify what’s happening on that tape. A lower percentage of Purdy’s pass yards have come via yards after the catch than any of the recent MVP winners, including Patrick Mahomes. So are we going to say that Mahomes is only good because of his supporting cast? Of course not — because we understand that quarterbacks should be judged by how they operate an offense, and setting a supporting cast up for success is the fundamentally central part of the QB job description.
Purdy’s big-time throw rate, tracked by Pro Football Focus, ranks in the NFL’s top five. As you mentioned, he’s also ranked at the top of the league when pressured — a testament to his quickness, elusiveness and general command of the position. It’s worth noting that Love has been right behind him since midseason in terms of efficiency when pressured, setting up a hell of a duel on Saturday. And Purdy, with his 63.8 percent completion rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield, has also delivered the most accurate deep-passing season that PFF has ever recorded.
The 49ers’ offensive line also ranks at No. 20 or lower in every single pass protection metric. And that should finish off the narrative that we’re debunking here.
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Purdy is actually overcoming less-than-ideal scenarios in many cases, and that’s why he trailed only 2004 Peyton Manning, 1984 Dan Marino and 2011 Aaron Rodgers in the adjusted net yards per attempt index this season. We’ve seen a special level of efficiency that’s possible only in the presence of high-level QB play.
Schneidman: Well, that settles that! Let’s get to some predictions. I think the Packers will keep it relatively close because any time you have a quarterback playing as well as Love has for the last two-plus months, you have a shot. Jones should also be able to get going on the ground to an extent. Even so, I don’t think a Green Bay defense that has allowed 35 points in its last three games (excluding garbage time against the Cowboys) can withstand the depth of San Francisco’s offensive playmakers for a full 60 minutes. Give me 49ers 31, Packers 23.
Lombardi: I’ll say 49ers 37, Packers 20. If it rains a lot, dial back those numbers. That’s the score of the 2019 season NFC title game between these teams, but this game will get there very differently: It’ll be close for over a half, but the primary difference — the 49ers offense over the Packers defense — will truly show up down the stretch.
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(Top photos of Aaron Jones and Christian McCaffrey: Michael Owens / Getty Images and Mark Goldman / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)