Fantasy baseball closer tiers, plus a bonus tier for our favorite sleepers

When it’s time for closers, it’s usually time for Greg Jewett here on The Athletic. And he’ll give you an even more in-depth look at the position at some point soon for sure.

But people are drafting now and making decisions on keepers, so let’s put two brains together to work on this one issue. Eno Sarris and his Stuff+ and stuff-powered projections, come on down to Greg’s party.

The two of us will break down the closers into four tiers plus we’ll each provide four of our favorite sleepers for saves, with a little commentary on each tier. You can access our traditional rankings and tiers, Stuff+ numbers and much more in this Google doc.

That should get us all moving.

Eno’s Tier 1

Edwin Díaz (Mets), Emmanuel Clase (Guardians), Jhoan Duran (Twins), Devin Williams (Brewers), Josh Hader (Astros), Andrés Muñoz (Mariners)

This is the circle of trust. Each of these guys has a projected strikeout rate over thirty percent, they each have the job and most of them will have an ERA that starts with a one or a two. There’s hardly a wart among them.

Sure, Clase didn’t show his best strikeout numbers last season. But he’s had better ones in the past, the stuff (and Stuff+) is all still there, and he has the best projected ppERA in all of baseball. Díaz is coming off an injury, but it wasn’t to his arm. Devin Williams has had some health history but has been mostly healthy for three straight years. Josh Hader has had some command issues, but he also righted the ship in that regard. Muñoz is new to the group, but he also debuted a sinker late in the season that was nasty-nasty, and his results (real and modeled) last season were outstanding.

Their strengths far outweigh any of these relatively smaller questions. It only gets tougher from here.

Greg’s Tier 1

Edwin Díaz (Mets), Devin Williams (Brewers), Jhoan Duran (Twins), Emmanuel Clase (Guardians)

There are no surprises in this group, though my trust tree has fewer branches in my top tier. Trumpets will be playing once again, to the delight of Mets fans. Díaz’s leverage ladder will be much weaker than his previous two healthy seasons with the team, so his save share percentage should increase. Williams remains insulated with his “Airbender” and his team’s propensity for close contests; the only worry would be a potential midseason trade if things go awry.

Duran may join the triple-digit strikeout reliever club this season, especially if his pitch mix from the playoffs gets deployed through the regular season. He may be this year’s Félix Bautista breakout closer. As a statistic, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) can be fluky, and Clase’s spiked last year. Migration toward the mean along with consecutive 40-plus save campaigns keep him in this tier.

Camilo Doval notched 66 saves over the past two seasons. (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

Eno’s Tier 2

Pete Fairbanks (Rays), Ryan Helsley (Cardinals), Camilo Doval (Giants), David Bednar (Pirates), Clay Holmes (Yankees), Evan Phillips (Dodgers), Tanner Scott (Marlins), Jordan Romano (Blue Jays)

Here come the question marks. Inning by inning, Fairbanks plays the same game as the first-tier closers, but his injury history is so robust that this writer once asked him if perhaps his stuff was too big for his body to contain. Helsley walks a similar high-stuff/high-risk line, but each pitcher has a top-five closer upside.

Doval is working with the Clase starter kit and may strike out more guys, but the Giants used him hard last year and he faded a little at the end. Bednar has some team/support issues — and those are turned on their head for the Yankees, who may have other options if they feel they need them. Check out that Holmes projection in the doc linked above, though. He may be a value option here.

Scott has an amazing projection and a 32 percent projected strikeout rate, but that’s paired with the worst command of any pitcher on this list and it’s been a problem in the past. This is a tier of like, not love, but there are some opportunities.

Greg’s Tier 2

Raisel Iglesias (Braves), Josh Hader (Astros), David Bednar (Pirates), Camilo Doval (Giants), Pete Fairbanks (Rays), Andrés Muñoz (Mariners), Tanner Scott (Marlins), Ryan Helsley (Cardinals), Alexis Díaz (Reds)

There’s not a cliff from the first tier into this one, but each has a potential concern for the upcoming season. Injuries limited Iglesias (shoulder), Fairbanks (wrist, hip), and Helsley (forearm) last year, so clean bills of health this spring would enhance their potential outcomes.

Hader signed a massive contract for a reliever but may share some saves based on lineup pockets — however, not many at $19 million per season. Muñoz represents the biggest wild card in these rankings. He’s a top-five “closer” based on his arsenal, but does he possess the DNA for 60-plus innings in 2024? Scott racked up 104 strikeouts last year but could be a trade candidate ahead of the deadline. Díaz owned a 2.10 ERA and 36 saves through his first 66 games (until Sept. 15), then fatigue cratered his final results.

Eno’s Tier 3

Paul Sewald (Diamondbacks), Alexis Díaz (Reds), Raisel Iglesias (Braves), Adbert Alzolay (Cubs), Craig Kimbrel (Orioles), Kenley Jansen (Red Sox)

I prefer not to shop in this bucket, as I see an outsized amount of risk when put against the cost.

Sewald and his funky release point and movement combo are easy to love, but he’s got the highest ERA projection and one of the lower Stuff+ numbers to this point in the rankings. Díaz has a unique fastball but ditto on those same facts. Iglesias is getting older and has the worst Stuff+ of any of our top four tiers — plus he has good teammates who could take his job. Alzolay isn’t old, but his stuff is only OK compared to his peers.

Kimbrel and Jansen are interesting veterans who still have decent stuff. But relievers’ production is so tied to velocity, and velocity declines are inevitable, so depending on them makes me nervous at least. If I had to pick one, it probably would be Sewald, considering that Díaz had a velo dip in the second half, but Kimbrel is somewhat enticing.

Clay Holmes’ ERA has been below 3.00 in each of his three seasons with the Yankees. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

Greg’s Tier 3

Evan Phillips (Dodgers), Jordan Romano (Blue Jays), Clay Holmes (Yankees), Craig Kimbrel (Orioles), Kenley Jansen (Red Sox), Hunter Harvey (Nationals), Adbert Alzolay (Cubs), Mason Miller (A’s)

This tier features some unsexy, stable options for saves like Romano and Holmes. Not enough people talk about Phillips. For a second straight season, he logged at least 60 appearances with at least 60 strikeouts over 60-plus innings with a WHIP below one. He’s the only qualified reliever to do this over the past two years. Kimbrel struggled early on for the Phillies, took over as the preferred save option and surged, then fatigued in the playoffs. His experience should help him move up the career saves leaderboard. It feels like Boston prefers trading Jansen, which would create a ripple effect in these rankings, along with the leverage ladder wherever he lands.

After these grizzled veterans, upside relievers emerge. It felt like Harvey took over as the primary save share last July, then an injury after the All-Star break provided Kyle Finnegan a clear pathway to saves and he made the most of it. This year, Harvey leads his team in saves. For Alzolay, it’s all about how many innings he logs — this will be tethered to his final save tally. How Oakland uses Miller determines his ceiling in save totals, strikeouts, and eventual role moving forward. Monitor his spring training outings closely.

Eno’s Tier 4

Mason Miller (A’s), Robert Suarez (Padres), Hunter Harvey (Nationals), Robert Stephenson (Angels), José Leclerc (Rangers), José Alvarado (Phillies), Gregory Santos (White Sox), Alex Lange (Tigers), James McArthur (Royals), Justin Lawrence (Rockies)

I’m back in, baby. With the caveat that there really are two mini-tiers in this pu pu platter at the end. There are the number ones who I think are more likely to keep the job and the others who I find more likely to lose their jobs by the end of the year.

Miller and Harvey are probably my favorite cheap saves opportunities, as they have great stuff and teams that seem likely to hand them the closer’s role, but they definitely have F’s on their health report cards. You could say the same for Santos, really.

Stephenson, Leclerc and Alvarado are in a mini-tier where if I knew they had the role all year I’d be reasonably into them. Stephenson should eventually get the job, which makes him my favorite, but the other two may start with it, and that inertia might be enough. Lange is OK, but I might avoid the last three generally.

Greg’s Tier 4

José Alvarado (Phillies), Robert Stephenson (Angels), Robert Suarez, Gregory Santos (White Sox), José Leclerc (Rangers), James McArthur (Royals), Alex Lange (Tigers), Justin Lawrence (Rockies)

A blend of handle with care and patience blended with a side of cautionary tales in this tier. Philadelphia may mix-and-match in high-leverage innings with a “floating closer” concept, plus, Alvarado spent two stints on the injured list last season. Even if the fantasy community prefers Stephenson as the “closer,” it does not mean the Angels use him in a save chance on Opening Day.

My last group may be like a rodeo: Stay on the bucking bronco as long as possible, but if tossed, brush yourself off and walk away. Santos may or may not be ready at the start of the season. Leclerc started last year with the preferred save share, lost his role, battled an injury, eventually reemerged in September, and converted four of five save chances in the postseason. Can he hold off David Robertson or Josh Sborz? McArthur could be this year’s Alzolay, taking over later in the season and leading his team in saves. As for Lange and Lawrence, let someone else take the chance. And for what it’s worth, Tyler Kinley may lead the Rockies in saves, but they may be sparse.

Eno’s Tier 5 (sleepers)

Matt Brash has the stuff. Will that lead to an increase in saves? (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

Jason Adam (Rays): Fairbanks gets a Z on his health report card, and the Rays seem to spread the love around. That super change plus a strong breaking ball will make for some saves-stealing matchups even if Fairbanks is healthy.

Matt Brash (Mariners): There are only a couple of Tier Fivers with an ERA projection under three, so you might as well scoop him up in deeper leagues just for that fact. He’ll get some saves and some wins, and the guy in front of him has had some injury history.

Josh Sborz (Rangers): Yeah, Sborz has had an ERA around six over the past two seasons, but he hasn’t even thrown 75 innings over those two years combined. His stuff suggests he should get much better results, and we have that amazing postseason run as proof positive. Pick your champion in this bullpen, it’s open for business.

Jason Foley (Tigers): The only closer that has less command than Scott is Lange, and that opens the door for Foley, who isn’t amazing himself, but has a big fastball and keeps the ball on the ground, which should help him clean up some messes and maybe take the role for himself.

Greg’s Tier 5 (sleepers)

It would not be fun if Eno and I agree on everything, so these relievers represent ones I think could prove viable this season, or take over their team’s save share in 2024.

Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): He’s only made 19 career starts (90 2/3 innings, 18.2 K-BB percentage, 1.290 WHIP) and thrives as a reliever. Through 80 career relief appearances, he owns a 12- 7 record, nine saves, 21 holds, 24 games finished, a robust 150 strikeouts and 29 walks (22.7 K-BB percentage), and a 1.048 WHIP. A Jansen trade enhances his fantasy portfolio.

Jeff Hoffman (Phillies): Ranked seventh among National League relievers with a 0.917 WHIP and ninth in strikeout rate (33.2 percent). Over his last 23 games in 2023, he produced 26 strikeouts and five walks across 20 innings.

John Brebbia (White Sox): Fantasy relevance can be like real estate: location, location, location. Brebbia is not a great reliever, but if Santos suffers a setback, it opens the door for our veteran with “closer” experience to receive save opportunities. He finished with a 20.5 K-BB percentage in a limited sample last year, which may be enough in the White Sox’s leverage ladder.

Shelby Miller (Tigers): There’s no guaranteed formula for a starting pitcher to become an effective high-leverage option. But he finished strong with the Dodgers, added a split-fingered fastball, and may get save chances with his new team. His command will be a key, but if he can add a bit of velocity and carry over his 11:1 K:BB ratio from his last 11 outings last year, wheels up.

Once again, here’s that link to our detailed rankings to help you hunt for saves.

GO DEEPER

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(Illustration by Ray Orr / The Athletic; Photo of Emmanuel Clase: Dylan Buell / Getty Images; Photo of Edwin Díaz:
Jim McIsaac / Getty Images; Photo of Jhoan Duran: David Berding / Getty Images