The Dodgers’ system is tapering off after several years atop my rankings, but don’t shed any tears for the boys in blue as they’ve still got a high-end system full of potential stars, hard-throwing relievers, and potential mid-rotation starters the Dodgers transmuted from some old lead pipes they found lying around Camelback Ranch. Their 2023 draft class was full of surprise picks, and I’ll be very curious if they had it right and the industry had it wrong.
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Top 100 MLB prospects 2024: Keith Law’s rankings, with Jackson Holliday at No. 1
Dodgers 2024 top 20 prospects
(Note: Seasonal ages as of July 1, 2024. Scouting grades are on the traditional 20-80 or 2-8 scouting scale.)
1. Josue De Paula, OF (2024 top 100 ranking: 25)
Bats:
L | Throws: L | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19
De Paula signed for just under $400,000 as an international free agent in January 2022, and he’s since shown incredible feel for the strike zone as a teenager in Low A along with some high-end exit velocities already that point to a very big OBP/power upside. Born in Brooklyn but signed out of the Dominican Republic, De Paula — who is cousins with Stephon Marbury (tastefully done) — has outstanding bat speed and really controls the zone, with both ball/strike and pitch recognition that led to walk and strikeout rates well above the Low-A average last year. The main concern with him is that he’s a well below-average runner already at age 18, and has so much projection left to his body that he might grow himself right into first base. The combination of bat speed, selectivity, present power, and big physical projection could make him among the best hitters in baseball at his peak, and if so, whether it’s at first base or in an outfield corner won’t really matter.
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2. River Ryan, RHP (2024 top 100 ranking: 33)
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 195 | Seasonal age in 2024: 25
A pitcher and infielder at UNC Pembroke when the Padres drafted him in the 11th round in 2021, Ryan came to the Dodgers in a trade that sent Matt Beaty to San Diego. Once in the Dodgers’ system, Ryan became a full-time pitcher. He’s taken off since then, reaching Triple A last year in his second pro season, striking out almost a quarter of the batters he faced, and throwing four pitches that all at least flash plus. He’s up to 99 mph and pitches at 94-97 with a hammer curveball, sweepy slider, and hard fading changeup, dominating right-handed batters last year while showing some platoon split, particularly in OBP (he allowed a .388 OBP to lefties last year due to a 13 percent walk rate against them). He’s a superb athlete, as you’d expect from a former middle infielder, and his body looks ready to step into a major-league rotation now. He needs reps, as he still has just 152 professional innings on his resume, and in those reps he needs to continue to work on command of all of his pitches as well as his feel for the changeup. Ryan could be a No. 2 starter, and while I don’t think he’s ready for a major-league role just yet, he’s advanced so quickly he could easily make another big leap this spring and see Chavez Ravine before September.
3. Dalton Rushing, C (2024 top 100 ranking: 86)
Bats:
L | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 220 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
Rushing was the Dodgers’ second-round pick in 2022, a year in which they didn’t have a first-round selection. After signing, he hit .424/.539/.778 in 28 games in Low A — a small sample, sure, but early reports from pro scouts were of the “how did the Dodgers get this guy in the second round?” variety. The University of Louisville alum’s full-season debut was more of a mixed bag, as he moved to High A and hit .228/.404/.452 in 89 games, playing average defense with an average arm and working well with pitchers. The low average is a surprise for an ACC product in High A, as he wasn’t young for the level, and some of the concerns from his college days that he had trouble hitting velocity popped back up last year — he didn’t see a ton of big velo, but struggled against it when he did. On the plus side, he has a very disciplined approach with strong ball/strike recognition and a commensurately low chase rate, and he makes hard enough contact that his .276 BABIP may include some bad luck. The bar is low for an everyday catcher; if you can hit 20 homers and draw a bunch of walks with average defense, you may be able to start in the big leagues. I’m just a little more concerned about Rushing’s bat than I was a year ago.
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4. Gavin Stone, RHP (2024 top 100 ranking: 95)
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175 | Seasonal age in 2024: 25
It was not the MLB debut Stone or the Dodgers were hoping for, as the team’s fifth-round pick from 2020 was hit hard in 31 innings, with major-league hitters all over his fastball and his supposed out pitch, his changeup, which was extremely effective up through Triple A. The changeup wasn’t quite as devastating as it had been in the minors, but it appears he was tipping the pitch as well, allowing a 45 percent hard-hit rate with the pitch in the big-league stint. That in turn allowed hitters to look fastball, and his four-seamer, which was 93-95 mph but has never had a ton of movement, was close to useless. He’s a lot better than that, by his stuff and by his minor-league results, where his changeup would generate whiff rates near 50 percent or better at every level. He’s got at least an average fastball and slider with a changeup that looked like it’d be a 70 before major-league hitters deemed it somewhat unworthy of that grade. His debut was concerning, but I’m not giving up on his promise after such a small sample.
5. Thayron Liranzo, C (2024 top 100 ranking: 99)
Bats:
B | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20
I guess it wouldn’t be a top-100 without at least two Dodgers catching prospects on it. Liranzo is their latest phenom behind the plate, a switch-hitter who hit .273/.400/.562 in Low A last year with a 26.7 percent strikeout rate, better from the left side, with power either way. He’s got a big frame with plus bat speed already. He’s likely to end up with 30+ homer power as he gets ever stronger. He will have to work to stay agile enough behind the plate, where right now he’s a work in progress, showing enough aptitude even though he’s not very fluid in his actions when receiving or blocking. If he were a sure-thing catcher, he might be a top-50 prospect because the power is real and he’s got an idea at the plate. He’ll move to High-A Great Lakes this year, and the Midwest League is a lesser hitters’ environment than the Cal League, so we’ll get a better read on how advanced his approach is along with seeing how the catching progresses. The high-walks, high-power upside in a switch-hitting catcher could make him shoot up this list in a year.
6. Diego Cartaya, C (Just missed)
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 220 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22
It was a lost year at the plate for Cartaya, who hit just .189/.278/.379 for Double-A Tulsa as a 21-year-old, although he came to that level with just 175 pro games under his belt. He still showed the plus-plus power that made him a top-10 prospect just a year prior, with 19 homers in 93 games, but he struck out 29 percent of the time and started visibly pressing in June and July as his season line plummeted, salvaging his year with a solid couple of weeks in August before his season ended with an undisclosed injury.
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He did make progress behind the plate with his receiving and blocking, and managed to catch more games and innings than he did the year before even though he was a little banged up and struggling at the plate. He’s still very young and he’s a catcher with real power whose previous track record at the plate was all positive. The Dodgers have worked with him this winter to try to simplify his swing a little, but it might be that all he needs is the reset (and rest) of an offseason and a return to Tulsa to try again at age 22.
7. Andy Pages, OF
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 212 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
Pages played just 34 games in 2023 before tearing his labrum and undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, so he didn’t get the chance to bounce back after a disappointing showing in Double A in 2022 beyond a strong month repeating that level. He’s got 70 raw power and at least a 70 arm, while he continued to show a good approach in his limited time on the field last year and at the very least stopped chasing breaking stuff out of the zone from righties. He was a top-100 prospect the past two winters, but the lost year and possibility that his swing and power won’t be 100 percent when he returns this year slid him a little bit further down. He does have everyday or better upside with the power and the potential for solid OBPs even if he’s only hitting .240-250.
8. Payton Martin, RHP
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 170 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20
Martin was an infielder in high school, turned in as a shortstop by most teams in the 2022 draft, but the Dodgers took him in the 17th round, signing for the post-10th round $125,000 bonus (so it didn’t count against their pool), and stuck him on the mound. He’s an incredible athlete with a very quick arm, showing a plus slider and working 94-98 mph in short stints as the Dodgers try to build him up to a starter’s workload. He does have a changeup and it has some arm-side fade, although he lacks feel for the pitch so far. He did end the year on the injured list and it’s not clear if he’ll be ready for a full season of work in 2024. If he’s healthy, he has No. 3 starter upside.
9. Justin Wrobleski, LHP
Bats:
L | Throws: L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 194 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
Wrobleski was the Dodgers’ 2021 11th-round pick after he’d undergone Tommy John surgery in college. He returned to the mound later in 2022 and pitched a full year in 2023 that established him as yet another promising Dodgers pitching prospect. He’s 92-95 mph, touching 98, with a four-pitch mix, including a cutter at 90-91, power curveball at 84-86, and solid-average changeup at 84-90. His arm is quick and his delivery works well, getting himself on top of the ball for good ride on the four-seamer. At Oklahoma State and Clemson, he walked 40 in 53 2/3 innings; last year in High A, he walked 35 in 102 1/3 innings. He looks like at least a No. 4 starter and could easily be more if he sees more development of the changeup and cutter in his second full year back.
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10. Jackson Ferris, LHP
Bats:
L | Throws: L | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 195 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20
One of two prospects obtained from the Cubs for Michael Busch this offseason, Ferris is a four-pitch lefty who’s been up to 95 mph with a plus slider and a below-average changeup, pitching with 45 control at best. He’s got a hard delivery to repeat, overextending in the back so his arm slot drifts upwards, which led to timing issues out over his front side for much of the year and may be at least one factor behind his 14 percent walk rate. He’s a strong kid and very athletic with a prototypical starter’s body. I know several scouts who thought he’d have to move to the bullpen because of the delivery and below-average command and control. If he cleans it up — and the Dodgers have done this before — he has mid-rotation upside.
11. Kyle Hurt, RHP
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 240 | Seasonal age in 2024: 26
Hurt reached the majors last year in a breakout season that followed two unremarkable years in the Dodgers’ system where he posted a 5+ ERA across four levels plus the Arizona Fall League. In 2023, he threw far more strikes in Double A and Triple A while striking out 39 percent of batters at the two stops. He streamlined his delivery and repertoire, going mostly four-seamer and changeup, sitting 94-97 mph on the former and getting split-like bottom on the latter. Those two pitches were 82 percent of what he threw in Triple A and 100 percent of what he threw in his two innings in the majors. He might be a two-pitch starter if he can just get either the slider or curve to a 45, although he doesn’t have great feel to spin either pitch. He definitely could be a long reliever right now and make some spot starts as needed.
12. Joendry Vargas, SS
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 175 | Seasonal age in 2024: 18
The Dodgers signed Vargas last January for $2,077,500, and the Dominican infielder showed out in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .328/.423/.529 with just a 14.9 percent strikeout rate in over 200 PA. He has an excellent swing that’s short to the ball with some loft in his finish for line-drive power. He’s 6-4 and has a lot of room to fill out, maybe getting to 20-25 homers but also quite likely outgrowing shortstop and moving to third base. DSL stats are only slightly more predictive than tarot cards, so I don’t want to get too excited, but I am still excited.
13. Eduardo Quintero, OF
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 175 | Seasonal age in 2024: 18
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Quintero was a catcher before signing with the Dodgers last January for $287,500, after which the team moved the Venezuelan prospect to center field to make better use of his speed and get his bat in the lineup more often. He hit .359/.472/.618 last summer, finishing fourth in the DSL in slugging and 12th in OBP, with just a 16 percent strikeout rate, and finished second in the league in triples (seven) and fifth in steals (22). He’s strong for his age and the ball comes off his bat really well, even with some over-stride and a tendency to leak a little over his front side. I imagine both he and Joendry Vargas will start in the ACL but will see Low A before the year is out.
14. Maddux Bruns, LHP
Bats:
L | Throws: L | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22
Bruns continues to miss bats about as often as he misses the plate, with a 29.3 percent strikeout rate and 15.6 percent walk rate last year, mostly in High A. He’s still 92-94 mph and can touch 98 with what might be a 70 slider and plus changeup, with the fastball playing a little below its velocity. If he commanded anything he’d be a mid-rotation starter. He lands stiffly and spins off his front leg, which isn’t great for repeatability, but I’ve seen worse in pitchers who threw a lot more strikes. He could be a No. 1 starter, really, but I have no hope right now that he’s going to get close to that.
15. Landon Knack, RHP
Bats:
L | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 220 | Seasonal age in 2024: 26
Knack’s velocity backed up a little more last year, as he averaged just 91 mph on his four-seamer in Triple A, still getting good induced vertical on the pitch, with a slightly above-average slider and average changeup. He pitched in the rotation all year but sparingly in the second half and ended the year on the injured list. He does throw strikes and shows no platoon split, so he might be a capable fifth starter, but that’s two years interrupted by injuries along with a downward trend in his velocity, which points to a bullpen or other reduced role.
16. Jeral Perez, 2B/3B
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 179 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19
Perez can hit and started to come into some more power last year, with an optimized swing that should help him get the most out of the contact he makes. He tied for the Arizona Complex League lead with 11 homers last year, showing strong bat speed but getting too aggressive during a brief promotion to Low A. He’s an average defender at second and a high 45 at third, giving him a chance to be an everyday player if he can keep his contact rate up.
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17. Ronan Kopp, LHP
Bats:
L | Throws: L | Height: 6-7 | Weight: 250 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21
Kopp has two legit pitches in a 93-95 mph fastball with good carry and a high spin-rate slider with sweeping action at 85-87, but he walked one of every six hitters he faced in the regular season and right-handed batters are going to have a field day with him at higher levels. He’s got a high-effort, catapult-like delivery that he can’t repeat and that has him grunting with effort on every pitch, which I guess would be fine if this were Wimbledon, but there’s no grunting in baseball. It’s straight reliever but he might have two 70s from the left side in shorter bursts.
18. Kendall George, OF
Bats:
L | Throws: L | Height: 5-10 | Weight: 170 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19
George was the Dodgers’ first pick in the 2023 draft, a surprise selection (he was not on my pre-draft top 100) as he’s a very undersized hitter who’s an 80 runner and makes contact but seems very unlikely to have any impact with the bat even as he gets older. Drafted from a Texas high school, George is listed generously at 5-10, 170, and he has a mediocre, contact-over-impact swing. He had a reputation for plus-plus defense in high school but in his brief time in pro ball showed range from his speed but poor instincts. He hit well in his debut, .370/.458/.420, with 0 homers in 28 games between the ACL and Low A. The recent history of this type of player is not promising, and the Dodgers have to find a way to get him to make harder contact for him to have any more than a fourth outfielder ceiling.
19. Rayne Doncon, IF
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 176 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20
Doncon hit just .216/.283/.368 as a 19-year-old in Low A last year, as his approach, or lack thereof, caught up to him against full-season pitching, but scouts are still intrigued by the athleticism and potential for big power. At the plate, it’s a tale as old as time — he hits fastballs, and he doesn’t like anything else, although in his case it’s a wide gap between the two. He’s played shortstop but doesn’t have the instincts or quickness for it, while he’s fine at third or second now, with the possibility that when he fills out completely he might end up in the outfield. None of this other frippery matters if he doesn’t learn to recognize some pitches, though. He’s an all-or-nothing prospect — if he makes those adjustments at the plate, he might be an above-average regular, but if he doesn’t, he might stall out in Double-A Tulsa.
20. Austin Gauthier, IF
Bats:
R | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 188 | Seasonal age in 2024: 25
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Gauthier signed in 2021 as an undrafted free agent out of Hofstra, and he’s hit everywhere the Dodgers have sent him, including a .293/.411/.433 line in Double A last year over 84 games. He plays short, third, second, and left, and takes great at-bats, walking 100 times last year against 84 strikeouts. He also makes hard enough contact to hit for some average, although the swing puts the ball on the ground too often for power. He’s been old for everywhere he’s played, and he hasn’t faced much real velocity or done anything with it, so he may have issues even in Triple A. He does look like a solid bench player with the versatility he provides.
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MLB 2024 farm system rankings: Keith Law ranks all 30 teams, Orioles are new No. 1
Others of note
• Oswaldo Osorio gained about 15 pounds of muscle last offseason to hit the ball harder but perhaps moved himself off shortstop. He has produced through the ACL but has a high-maintenance swing with a ton of moving parts and may end up a low-average guy with some walks and power who can handle second or third.
• Aruban infielder Alexander Albertus jumps off the stat sheet with his 2:1 walk-to-strikeout rate (38 walks, 19 Ks, 170 PA), with an unusual swing that has him planting his lead foot before his hands have really begun to move forward. The plate discipline looks real but the power may not hold up at higher levels with these mechanics. He split time almost evenly between short, second, and third last year in the DSL and ACL, and at age 19 should go to Low A to start this year.
• The Dodgers shifted Mairoshendrick Martinus to centerfield from shortstop last year, although the Curaçao native didn’t hit enough for the position to matter right now, striking out 38 percent of the time with a .294 OBP. He’s athletic and has a great body, with more upside with the bat than Osorio or Albertus but less positional value and far less of an approach.
• Right-hander Nick Frasso would have been in the back of the Dodgers’ top-10 before undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum this offseason. He was 93-98 mph with a plus slider and a very long arm action that he couldn’t repeat and that may have put more pressure on the shoulder joint. The next time we see him, he’ll be 26. He’s never pitched 100 innings in a season, missing time in 2021 and 2022 with other injuries; and he doesn’t have a third pitch for lefties. If he comes back at all it should be in relief.
• 2023 second-round pick Jake Gelof, the younger brother of Oakland star Zack Gelof, has huge power but a massive hole at the plate, as he can’t catch up to good fastballs up in the zone and even in college pitchers would attack him there. He’s limited to an outfield corner so he has to find a way to hit or at least foul off those pitches to get to his power.
• Outfielder Chris Newell hit .222/.321/.424 in 42 games in High A, where he should have started the season as a 22-year-old product of the University of Virginia. He also had a 31.5 percent strikeout rate. He was a better prospect in high school than he was out of college and I doubt he’ll hit enough to get to his plus power unless the Dodgers can completely remake his swing and boost his pitch recognition.
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• The Dodgers added Zyhir Hope in the Michael Busch trade, adding another extremely athletic position player to the system, but one with huge questions about his baseball skills on both sides of the ball. He was the Cubs’ 2023 11th-round pick, a lottery ticket pick given the near-unanimous sense among amateur scouts that he couldn’t hit.
• Outfielder Jose Ramos, a top-100 prospect after 2021, had his second straight year of excessive swing-and-miss (29 percent strikeout rate in Double A). He still has plus power and an 80 arm, but his hit tool was exposed in High A and he hasn’t made any adjustments yet.
• Fourth-rounder Wyatt Crowell had Tommy John surgery in the spring, before which the lefty was 89-92 mph with some ride from a low three-quarters arm slot and a plus slider with big tilt. He might be able to start if he develops his changeup into a viable third pitch.
• Reynaldo Yean faced 28 batters in the ACL and the right-hander struck out 16 while walking one. When the Dodgers promoted him to Low A, he walked 16 in 16 innings with 28 more punchouts, so he still whiffed 41 percent of the batters he faced on the year. It’s 96-99 mph right now with a 55 slider, and he’s already big at 6-4 and at least 200. The arm works well enough for relief.
• The Dodgers’ 2023 third-round pick, right-hander Brady Smith, was overused by his high school coach and saw his velocity drop to 87-91 mph late in the year. He’s a projectable athlete and can spin a solid breaking ball. He didn’t pitch after signing so let’s hope that it was just fatigue and he’s 90-94 or better in the spring.
• Outfielder Samuel Muñoz took a step back last year in the ACL, playing below-average defense in center and showing less patience and impact than he had in 2022 in the DSL and fall instructional league. He’s still just 19 and has fourth-outfielder upside built around his potential to hit for average.
2024 impact
Stone should get another crack at the rotation at some point, while Hurt and Knack both should get shots in the bullpen.
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The fallen
The last time the Dodgers went completely off the board in the first round was 2019 with Tulane slugger Kody Hoese, who hadn’t hit before his draft year and turned 22 a few weeks after he was selected. He’s been awful in pro ball, with a career .294 OBP in the minors and no position. Their first-round pick from 2017, Jeren Kendall, retired before the 2023 season after two years of non-performance in Double A.
Sleeper
If Payton Martin is healthy, he’s the guy. Scouts loved what they saw and you can dream on a lot of future growth for a converted infielder, just as the Dodgers did with River Ryan.
(Top photo of Josue De Paula: Tracy Proffitt / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
