Draft Caleb Williams or keep Justin Fields, right? No, the decision facing the Chicago Bears is not necessarily that simple.
If the Bears and general manager Ryan Poles trade away the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft (for the second consecutive year), most would assume they would be throwing their support behind Fields as their QB of the future. But that might not be true. There are alternatives to consider.
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There are several keys to those alternatives. What is their evaluation of Williams, the USC quarterback? How far down the draft board would they trade? And how do they feel about the other QBs in this year’s draft? They are known to be meeting with all of the top quarterbacks this week at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis.
To sort that out, they would want to have a good feel for how the first 10 picks might fall. It’s not just about the QBs. Those are just the options we hear about publicly, but the level of intel and research that goes into the draft process runs much deeper.
What if the Bears are lukewarm on North Carolina’s Drake Maye or LSU’s Jayden Daniels, or both, like some in the business are? Many have force-fed us the narrative that there is a clear top tier of Williams, Maye and Daniels, with a line in the sand behind them. But in reality, some — I, for one — really like Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. He might just have the most upside of any of these guys.
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Perhaps the Bears feel similarly. Let’s suppose they like Williams most but have McCarthy not too far behind. Would they rather have McCarthy and a haul of draft picks than Williams? If yes, how far could they trade down and still draft McCarthy? The New York Giants (No. 6), Atlanta Falcons (8), Minnesota Vikings (11), Denver Broncos (12) and Las Vegas Raiders (13) could be interested in a quarterback, and the Bears have another pick at No. 9. I’m not sure I would want to drop any lower than No. 7.
But that’s not the only scenario worth exploring. Perhaps Chicago has Williams, Maye and/or Daniels graded similarly and would be comfortable with the second or third quarterback drafted. What would the Washington Commanders, who pick second, be willing to give to move up one spot for Williams? What about the New England Patriots at No. 3?
If the Bears see Williams as the only guy, and clearly on a shelf by his lonesome self, this discussion is moot.
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But if not, there could be tremendous value in trading both the No. 1 pick and Fields. Depending on how far down they traded, the Bears could — if they play their cards right — acquire a rare haul of future picks, allowing them to build up the roster for years. Is Poles willing to stake his career on such a move? Could he do it and still get the QB of his choice?
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All of this might be quite unlikely. I’ve always been willing to roll the dice, but with the information I have at this point, I would draft Caleb Williams and trade Fields. However, my mind is always open for discussion, and these are the kinds of scenarios that NFL decision-makers are talking through 24/7. It’s the GM’s job to do due diligence, explore and evaluate all potential scenarios and then choose the best path.
My point is that it’s not as simple as many might believe.
Three-and-out
Don’t knock the QBs who don’t throw
Williams, Maye and Daniels won’t throw when the quarterbacks take the field Saturday in Indianapolis.
Here’s what we know in terms of QBs throwing at the Combine (verified by a team source):
Not throwing: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels
Planning to throw: JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, Michael Penix
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 27, 2024
NFL teams don’t view QBs who choose not to throw at the combine more negatively than those who do. If I were one of the top guys, I would also choose to not throw. There is too much at stake, and these players feel they can control the environment to showcase their skills much better at their pro days.
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Having played the position — and this is an instance when that might matter, given the nuances — here is my take. It’s risky to throw to guys with whom you have no familiarity — no idea of how fast they can run or how they might run a particular route. Why? Because when a connection looks off or isn’t smooth, the blame goes to the QB. “Oh, he’s not accurate,” or, “He seemed unsure,” or, “He was getting the ball out late.”
The fact is that there is way more risk than potential gain for those who are already viewed by many as top prospects.
Those QBs have earned a bye for the combine because of their status and accomplishments to date. Some plan on using it. NFL teams understand this.
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If I were a down-the-draft-board prospect, I would definitely be throwing, just for the exposure in front of a who’s who of NFL evaluators. The bar is much different for them. They have a lot more to gain if they can show they have a rocket arm with noticeable velocity.
Ripple effects of extra cap space
Last week, the league notified teams of the salary cap for the 2024 league year. The number was much higher than most anticipated, and it made life easier for those trying to adjust contracts to become cap-compliant. Teams have until the start of the league year (March 13) to do so. We see many teams moving money to reduce cap charges by turning salaries into signing bonuses. For other teams, it provided significant additional space that they could use in a variety of ways.
Not all teams were thrilled with the cap coming in so high. Teams who had managed their cap more judiciously might have felt others were let off the hook by being gifted additional space. Those teams might also choose to use this space differently. A willingness to spend cash in the short term can stretch space considerably. I have also seen teams attempt to eat up cap space with large base salaries or by using the franchise tag, which both count entirely against the cap in a given season.
Nothing controls spending like using the franchise tag. I am particularly anxious to see how this plays out in the normally very conservative Cincinnati Bengals’ building, where they have tagged Tee Higgins. As a wide receiver, his franchise tender is worth $21.8 million, all of which counts against the cap in 2024 (unless the sides work out an extension before the July deadline). Poof! There goes two-thirds of the newfound cap space.
Still, I think the additional cap space will make it easier for teams to tag players this year. Let’s see how it plays out.
Odd time for an agent change
Patriots offensive lineman Mike Onwenu informed teams this week that he fired his agent, just two weeks before he is set to hit unrestricted free agency. What ramifications might that have?
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My mind went directly to the NFL front-office executives at the combine right now in Indianapolis. Teams are typically meeting with agents of unrestricted free agents this week, providing valuable information for both sides. Gauging a market for a player is a subjective process that requires experience and perspective. The most valuable tool for that in a player’s camp is usually his agent.
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For a player to change agents two weeks before making the biggest decision of his career seems ill-timed and potentially problematic. By rule, Onwenu must wait at least five days before hiring a new agent, or he could choose to represent himself. I am very curious to watch how this plays out. We all saw the difficulties Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson encountered when he navigated free agency without an agent last year. A team’s line of communication with a player or his camp is very important.
Onwenu might be the most important free agent the Patriots have. He’s better at guard than at tackle, but he functioned well at tackle in 2023 and might be their best option to keep in the fold until they can upgrade. Multiple teams will have interest in him, but navigating these shark-infested waters can be tricky, especially if you’re doing it on your own.
(Photos of, from left, Justin Fields, Ryan Poles and Caleb Williams: Michael Reaves / Getty Images, Kamil Krzaczynski, Jason Parkhurst / USA Today)