It was a tough night for the Toronto Maple Leafs against the Boston Bruins, a team they’re still chasing in the standings.
And a tough night for one defence pairing — TJ Brodie and Timothy Liljegren — in particular.
We’re only three days from the trade deadline, and all signs indicate the Leafs are going to continue to try to add here by Friday at 3 p.m. Their needs have essentially been the same all season, too: more help on right defence and another option at centre.
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One key indicator that GM Brad Treliving isn’t finished came last week when he acquired Ilya Lyubushkin from the Anaheim Ducks. The Leafs pulled off a complicated double retention deal by giving a sixth-round pick to the Carolina Hurricanes in order to help shave Lyubushkin’s cap hit from $2.75 million down to $687,500 — meaning he’s making $87,500 less than even the league minimum salary.
Treliving absolutely didn’t need to do this; the Leafs had plenty of other options to create the cap space to accommodate Lyubushkin, even at his full salary.
At first glance, it looks like Toronto is capped out at the moment. According to CapFriendly, for example, they have just $152,000 in space, even after demoting Nick Robertson.
But they’re also carrying a very full roster, with 13 forwards, seven defencemen, three goaltenders, two players on injured reserve and three more on long-term injured reserve.
Here’s what the Leafs lineup looks like currently, using the lines they had in place against Boston:
Several of the simplest moves the Leafs can make to create more space can come via waivers. Noah Gregor is the likeliest candidate here, but they could also place William Lagesson and even Martin Jones there and open up nearly $2.6 million in space within 24 hours.
Combining that opening with salary retention (or even more double retention) in a trade would effectively equal the ability to add between $5.2 million and $10.4 million in additional salaries.
So basically, using only waivers, they can fill any holes necessary. In theory.
The problem there, as we know by now, is the Leafs are short on assets to trade. They lack many high-end prospects and have only four picks in the first three rounds in the next three drafts (two firsts and two thirds).
And giving up more picks for double retention may get too costly, especially when they can find more cap dollars elsewhere in the lineup.
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A few other options to create money include:
1. Placing Mark Giordano, who has a head injury, on LTIR ($800,000)
2. Waiving Conor Timmins, who has missed all but 16 games this season and is close to returning from an illness ($1.1 million)
3. Trading another roster player as part of a deadline move
I could see either Liljegren or Brodie moved in Scenario No. 3, if there’s a blockbuster available for the Leafs that involves bringing in another right defenceman.
The most prudent course of action here will be placing Gregor and Lagesson both on waivers by Thursday at 2 p.m. I’d hang onto Jones for insurance in goal — he will almost certainly be claimed in this environment where so many teams need help in the crease — and instead put both Giordano and Timmins on LTIR, at least temporarily.
That alone would give Treliving $3.6 million and two roster spots to work with on Friday at the deadline.
Landing both a right-shot D and a centre for that amount of space is doable. To use two examples from Chris Johnston’s latest trade board: Philadelphia’s Sean Walker and Seattle’s Alex Wennberg combine to earn $7.15 million, meaning 50 percent retention would allow them to both fit into a $3.6 million-sized hole.
There are plenty of lower-cost options that will be available, too, if the Leafs miss on the few real names available this year. Someone like Lars Eller, a dependable checking centre with the Pittsburgh Penguins, could be a no-brainer given he would be making only $1.225 million at half salary.
I suspect it’s going to be very difficult for the Leafs to be players for the Hanifins and Guentzels at this deadline, but their recent 13-3-0 run prior to the Boston loss solidified a few things.
For one, they’re going to make the playoffs. They also have a chance to move higher in the Atlantic Division.
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And, overall, there just aren’t a lot of teams that scare you around the NHL right now.
Despite an underwhelming first half to their season, the Leafs are tied for the eighth-best record in the league. They can score as well as anyone and have a top power play. Over this last 17-game run, they’ve been the NHL’s top team in goals per game (3.88) by a wide margin and sit seventh best in goals against (2.76).
Most importantly, they’ve tightened up significantly defensively, allowing the fourth fewest shots per game in that stretch.
If they get good goaltending from one of their three options down the stretch and make a savvy addition or two, it’s possible the Leafs have something here.
As outlined above, they also have enough cap space to do something that makes an impact. Perhaps not as much as last season’s haul but enough to help patch their two biggest weaknesses.
Getting strategically aggressive should be the play here.
The toughest part of that for Toronto, however, is we’re looking at a historically weak deadline day. And until now, the sellers have been holding strong for the right ransom. While the salary cap shouldn’t be an impediment for the Leafs, their lack of assets to deal and the high prices being sought could conspire against them.
It’s really going to require some creativity to address their needs in this environment.
(Photo of Timothy Liljegren skating with the puck against Boston’s Justin Brazeau: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
