The Bengals of the last four years in March have been like the good son who went off to college. They were predictable, trackable beings in high school. They played the same sports, hung out with the same friends, went to the same places.
Then, they went off to college and every holiday or semester break when they returned, they surprised you. First, they had a tattoo. Next, they joined a band. Is that a mullet? What do you mean you want to study abroad in Mongolia?
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For a franchise once automatic for March coming in like a lamb and going out like Lambie from Doc McStuffins, this new personality has taken an adjustment period.
But now, with four years of calculated aggressiveness in free agency, we can paint a better view of the new Bengals — face tats and all.
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Looking at this grouping of player acquisition, with an emphasis on the last three years as the roster shifted from gutting to augmenting coach Zac Taylor and player personnel director Duke Tobin’s vision, you can better pinpoint where the value will lie next week, who fits their newfound profile and, more importantly, who doesn’t.
Combine that with knowledge of their philosophical approach this season and you end up pinpointing realistic targets and decisions between players.
First, this is the list of players the Bengals signed in the free agency period since 2020 with expectations of taking on a starting role once the ink dried.
*AAV cap% = Average annual value of the contract divided by NFL cap at year of signing
Year | Player | AAV cap% | Age | GTD | Yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 8.2% | 26.2 | $16M | 4 | |
2023 | 7.1% | 26.8 | $31.1M | 4 | |
2020 | 7.0% | 27.6 | $15M | 3 | |
2020 | 6.6% | 25.7 | $20.3M | 4 | |
2022 | 4.8% | 26.9 | $13M | 3 | |
2022 | 4.2% | 27.1 | $11M | 4 | |
2021 | 4.1% | 32.2 | $5.5M | 1 | |
2021 | 4.0% | 25.8 | $7.5M | 3 | |
2022 | 3.4% | 28.6 | $5M | 3 | |
2021 | 3.4% | 26.7 | $4.6M | 1 | |
2021 | 3.3% | 27 | $6M | 4 | |
2023 | 3.0% | 26.8 | $7M | 3 | |
2020 | 3.0% | 25.2 | $3M | 3 | |
2022 | 2.9% | 28.9 | $5M | 3 | |
2020 | 2.0% | 26.3 | $1.5M | 1 | |
2023 | 1.8% | 27.8 | $3M | 3 | |
2022 | 1.7% | 28.5 | $2M | 1 | |
2020 | 1.5% | 29.2 | $1M | 3 | |
2023 | 0.8% | 24.6 | $400K | 1 |
Once you play around sorting different categories, three important themes stick out.
Big money goes to big boys
When the Bengals are willing to go into the highest reaches of the market, they typically only do so for the trenches. Five of the six contracts topping four percent and at least $10 million guaranteed went to the defensive or offensive line.
The only exception was the biggest contract mistake of the Taylor-Tobin era with Trae Waynes barely playing in stripes.
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If pinpointing where they would potentially get uncomfortable, look up front. Granted, that’s where the top two position priorities currently exist at both defensive tackle spots and right tackle, but they aren’t hiding the investment.
“We want to build the line of scrimmages,” Tobin said last week at the NFL Scouting Combine. “I don’t know that I would ever stand up here and say D-line is not a position of need and offensive line is not a position of need. They are always going to be a position of need. It’s just a matter of being the right guy at the right time.”
There’s a small asterisk to the two franchise tags applied at receiver to A.J. Green in 2020 and Tee Higgins this year. Yet, the point is when going out into free-agent waters where multiple years must be part of the contract, the heavy investment stayed on the interior.
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Out with the old, in with the young
Maybe the most impactful trend of the new era. The Bengals just will not be investing in aging players. The reasonable one-year deal for Riley Reiff with the Bengals in a bit of a lurch during the second wave of free agency in 2021 is the only time they signed a player 30 or older.
They have been willing to go a touch older on the offensive line. The four oldest players on this list are all offensive linemen, though notably, only Ted Karras would in retrospect be viewed as a success. Perhaps even more validation of their strategy.
In fact, of the non-OL signed for multiple years, none had even turned 28 at signing with an average age of 26.6.
If you were ranking this list from top to bottom by best free-agent signing, you’d end up with all the youngest players: Home runs Vonn Bell, D.J. Reader, Chidobe Awuzie and Trey Hendrickson were the four youngest at signing along with Irv Smith, who barely topped the league minimum.
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Owning the middle tier
The only time the Bengals went into the upper reaches of the market was in seeking value deals on bigger names. One aspect often lost in the Orlando Brown Jr. deal was that the market came back to them. They signed Brown as the 18th-highest-paid tackle overall in terms of AAV. It was well below the perceived market value for the former Chiefs left tackle, despite the record-breaking upfront money. They weren’t in a bidding war with anyone.
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Reader was the most aggressive move of all these, making him the highest-paid nose tackle in the NFL at the time because they were in a desperate spot to reform the roster in 2020.
The lifeblood of their approach has been taking advantage of the middle-class market, shown in the chart between three and four percent of that year’s cap. For this year’s class that would drop between $7 million and $10 million per year.
There are circumstances behind these profiles, but also of note, the positions they have never dipped into free agency and paid more than two percent are running back, wide receiver and tight end. That could change next week if the team releases Joe Mixon.
What does all this mean for next week? Understanding the position priorities of interior defense, right tackle, safety, tight end, potentially running back and a wild card at cornerback, let’s take a look at fits that make the most sense and popular names that should be tossed out. All of this under the realization a few names released this week could end up in the mix.
Interior defender
In
Projection for Tart, coming off his tumultuous year and release by the Titans lands right in the sweet spot at $9 million per year. Plus, the Bengals were one of the three teams to put a claim in for him last year. He turned 27 last week and the defensive line market is not great for youth.
The two former high picks — Davis 56, Kinlaw 13 — could be high-value, change-of-scenery candidates. Both are young, showing flashes of the physical traits that made them intriguing prospects. The problem is the Bengals have mostly bet on players with prolonged runs of proving they can do it. So, both of these likely fall into the one-year range.
Maybe
D.J. Reader
The complicated nature of his case is well-documented, but he would fall under the one-year-only range because of age and cost combo. His value in Cincinnati is higher than anywhere else, but it’s not out of the question in a rough defensive tackle market if his injury scares teams off early.
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He’s pushing their age limit (28.9), but is a proven commodity as a run-stopper who would likely come in below or inside the mid-tier range.
Out
Christian Wilkins (expensive), Leonard Williams (expensive/age), Grover Stewart (age), Sheldon Rankins (expensive/age), Fletcher Cox (age)
Many of the biggest names expecting to land the largest contracts don’t hit the Bengals’ age threshold for significant deals. Wilkins would be the only exception, but he would fall under the refusal to get into a bidding war. He might end up the most coveted free agent on the market and his agent is friend of the franchise David Mulugheta.
Offensive tackle
In
The mid-tier option here, Becton has not yet turned 25. His athletic potential is unquestioned and he has a history with offensive line coach Frank Pollack. This would be a bet on developmental upside and maturity. Would he be willing to play the right side, something he did with some resistance with the Jets? Will Cincinnati be comfortable with his injury history? Depending on his market and Cincinnati’s price, it could absolutely match up for both sides.
Maybe
The most enticing maybe of the cycle. The bidding war will be a problem and he could be viewed as too expensive. If his market explodes as some think it could, he’s out of their range. However, at 26 years old, a proven quality starter and a versatile offensive line piece for the Patriots, Onwenu would be the perfect fit and check every box as an example of where the Bengals are willing to spend more for a big splash. The question is, will he elicit a bidding war or will the plethora of draft options tame his market?
Tyron Smith, Trent Brown, Jermaine Eluemunor
These three would all fall under the Reiff exception for age. Smith is the most notable and would require figuring out if he moves over to right tackle, but at 33 with an injury history, there’s risk there. But if you got a full healthy season on a one-year deal, the reward is sky-high.
Brown also doesn’t fit the age profile but could warrant an exception in the case of looking for versatility and potential pairing with a first-round pick.
Out
Jonah Williams (expensive), Donovan Smith (age/level), George Fant (age/level), Cam Fleming (age/level)
There’s a collection of players that for their talent level and age, it would not fit with Cincinnati’s profile to add to the mix. Williams will likely be too expensive to return to the Bengals, who are more interested in a different path at the position.
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One ideal mid-tier target from other needs (S, SWR, TE, RB)
In
Hasn’t turned 25 yet and shined in his first expanded role with the Ravens last year, including a savvy interception of Joe Burrow in Week 2 that turned the tide of the Cincinnati loss. His tackling is a concern, but he gives off Trey Hendrickson-Saints vibes in that he has done well whenever given more opportunity and took off last year. The Bengals love ascending players in creating value deals. Stealing from a division rival wouldn’t hurt, either.
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The Bengals would be less likely to pay a slot receiver rather than draft an answer there, but if they did, Mooney would fit the bill. Victimized often by poor quarterback play in Chicago but he looked like a future star early in his career. Only 26 and hitting free agency with a low price tag and high upside.
RB Zack Moss
Hitting free agency for the first time, he would be the mid-tier of running backs, and for a team looking for explosiveness, that’s his specialty. Fifth in the NFL in Rushing Yards Over Expected per attempt, 15th in breakaway percentage. Low wear and tear as a successful complementary back in two spots, but shined last year in Jonathan Taylor’s absence.
TE Hayden Hurst
Fits their mold at tight end of players wanting to play with Burrow on a smaller, one-year deal. It’s hard to argue with the production and energy he brought in 2022. He’s a touch older, but if they can feel comfortable with his injury history, he brings built-in rapport with Burrow, knowledge of the offense and fewer variables after last year’s failed Irv Smith transition.
Out
CB Chidobe Awuzie (age), RB Derrick Henry (age/expensive), RB Saquon Barkley (expensive), S Kenny Moore (age), S Xavier McKinney (expensive), TE Noah Fant (expensive)
This is a small collection of popular names often mentioned that should be crossed off for one reason or another from a Bengals’ perspective.
Cincinnati is not the type of team to spend big money at any of these positions, but will be looking for profile fits. We know they won’t take on a third contract at cornerback and have drafted for Awuzie’s replacement. Any expensive or aging running back is out of the question. The same two factors will eliminate many big names at the loaded safety position. The tight end profile of one-year deals for solid players will likely continue and with many other needs. It’s just really hard to see them spending real money at tight end even with an otherwise snug profile fit like young, ascending Fant.
(Top photo of Geno Stone: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
