I’m back home from Fort Myers, Fla., we’re less than three weeks from Opening Day, and the Minnesota Twins’ roster looks close to set after a long-awaited flurry of trades and signings.
So, let’s open the mailbag for the final time before the 2024 season begins and see what’s on your minds about a team in search of its fourth American League Central title in six years.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
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As of right now, who do you think grabs the final spot or two in the bullpen coming out of camp? — Andrew S.
There’s likely only one bullpen spot truly up for grabs if everyone is healthy.
Jhoan Duran, Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa, Steven Okert and Jay Jackson are expected to fill seven of the eight spots, and the final choice could come down to what type of role the Twins envision needing. Will they simply take the best reliever? Or do they want someone capable of eating multiple innings per outing as a long reliever?
Jorge Alcala has looked very good early in camp, throwing 96-98 mph like the pre-injury version of himself who showed so much promise in 2020 and 2021. Purely from a stuff standpoint, Alcala is seemingly ahead of another candidate for the last relief spot, Josh Staumont, who’s struggled to regain peak velocity. Both pitchers have minor-league options remaining, so that won’t be a factor.
Brent Headrick and Cole Sands are the obvious long-relief candidates already on the 40-man roster, and they’ve filled that role previously. My sense is the Twins would prefer not to interrupt Louie Varland’s development as a starter, but they could temporarily use him in the bullpen to guard against Anthony DeSclafani’s being limited by elbow issues early on.
(I’ll have a lot more about the Twins’ bullpen later this week.)
Are there any Twins non-roster invitees you think will make the Opening Day roster? — Garrison A.
I’d be surprised if anyone outside the 40-man roster cracked the Opening Day roster this season, although Willi Castro made the team as a non-roster invitee last year and no one expected that until multiple injuries cleared space for him late in camp. And then Castro wound up ranking fourth on the team with 409 plate appearances. Injuries can change everything.
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Is there a chance Matt Canterino makes the team out of camp? — Adam L.
No. Matt Canterino’s comeback from Tommy John surgery has gone well thus far, but he was sidelined for 18 months and has never even faced Triple-A hitters. The Twins will take it slowly with Canterino, building him back up gradually in the minors. It would be a positive outcome if he emerged as a second-half option for the Twins, perhaps as a reliever. Patience is required for the payoff.
Great to see Matt Canterino back in game action as he pitched 2 innings yesterday in Spring Training 💪
He had 9 whiffs on the day including 3 strikeouts in his first game back in almost 2 years🔥#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/GirRbHm9J8
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) March 1, 2024
What does Austin Martin’s future with the Twins look like? — Tim M.
Trading for Manuel Margot squashed whatever chance Austin Martin had of being on the Opening Day roster, but he’s going to be part of the Twins’ plans this season at some point.
Injuries, limited power and lesser bat-to-ball skills than expected have lowered Martin’s stock since he was the No. 5 pick in the 2020 draft and the headlining prospect of the José Berríos trade in 2021, but he still profiles as a quality major leaguer. Martin, who turns 25 years old later this month, is slated to be essential depth for the Twins this season after finishing 2023 on a high note at Triple A.
He’s a contact-oriented hitter who draws a lot of walks, posting a .390 on-base percentage against Double-A and Triple-A competition. And once on base, he’s a fast, aggressive runner, averaging 40 steals per 150 games in the high minors. Martin can play second base, left field and center field, plus shortstop and third base in a pinch. Expect to see plenty of him at Target Field this summer.
Do you think Jose Miranda is still viewed by the Twins as a key piece of their future core? — Patrick D.
No, but that can change in a hurry if he stays healthy and starts hitting again.
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Last season was basically a lost year for Jose Miranda because of right shoulder problems that started in spring training and ended with offseason surgery from which he’s still rounding back into form. He’s also now considered strictly a first baseman/designated hitter, so the bar for his offense is higher than ever and he’s behind Carlos Santana and Alex Kirilloff on the depth chart.
Still, he’s very capable of hitting his way back into the Twins’ plans with a good, healthy Triple-A stretch. Kirilloff getting hurt again or Santana showing his age could reopen the door for Miranda. And even falling short of that, there could be a spot for the 25-year-old as a right-handed platoon player, similar to the role Donovan Solano filled for the Twins last season.
Would you give separate letter grades to the front office and to ownership for the Twins’ offseason? — Tom K.
I think it’s important to differentiate between the front office and ownership in assessing the Twins’ offseason. Being told to cut $30 million in payroll changed everything for the baseball operations department, severely limiting free-agency and trade options, and forcing it to make a series of compromised decisions. It would be a mistake not to view the front office’s moves through that lens.
Given how much their hands were tied by a return to Metrodome-era spending relative to the average MLB payroll, I thought Derek Falvey and company did a decent, “C-plus” job working the margins of the roster to at least maintain solid depth and avoid any gaping holes. There were no big splashes, and not adding a front-line starter is disappointing, but they weren’t put in position to succeed.
As for ownership, it’s hard not to give out an “F” grade. It failed to improve the local television situation after months of empty promises, leaving many fans even more frustrated than before. And it slashed $30 million in payroll after the team’s first playoff success in two decades, bringing all momentum and fan morale to a screeching halt. If that’s not an “F” offseason, I’d hate to see one.
Will the Twins’ self-imposed budget restrictions limit the team at the trade deadline? — Gregory B.
It’s possible, but one thing to keep in mind about the trade deadline is that the salaries being exchanged are prorated. This season’s deadline is July 30, roughly two-thirds of the way through the schedule, meaning players being traded have already been paid the bulk of their 2024 salary. Beyond that, many selling teams are willing to eat salary to facilitate the best possible trade return.
So, for example, if the Twins were looking to trade for a starting pitcher with a $20 million salary at the deadline, they’d be on the hook for only $7 million of that money, and the selling team might be willing to cover some or all of it in the right deal anyway. If that level of additional investment in a contending team is too much for ownership … well, what’s lower than an “F” grade?
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If you had $30 million more for the Twins to spend for this offseason, what would you spend it on? — Anonymous
This is a tricky question because an additional $30 million would have altered the Twins’ entire offseason approach. There’s a chance none of the front office’s moves would have been the same. They would have been considering a totally different set of options and, even with something like the Jorge Polanco trade, their priorities wouldn’t have been exactly the same.
But it’s still an interesting question, and I always love hypotheticals. There are endless possibilities, especially if trade scenarios are included, but I’ll try to keep this very simple and focus on free agents who would have been clear upgrades if the front office had some meaningful spending room.
For instance, rather than signing the 38-year-old Santana to a one-year, $5.25 million deal, the Twins could have added a higher-upside first baseman, Rhys Hoskins, who signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. Similarly, the Twins’ unsuccessful effort to re-sign outfielder Michael A. Taylor likely would have gone differently if they weren’t pinching pennies.
On the pitching front, DeSclafani is a worthwhile flier for $4 million, but they could have aimed higher in the rotation. If the Twins wanted a rehab project on a one-year contract, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and Jack Flaherty had more upside. If they preferred dependability, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo got reasonable multiyear deals. And lots of relievers would have fit well.
Even now, just a few weeks before Opening Day, an extra $30 million could be deployed in a consequential way, perhaps even to land Scott Boras clients Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery on a short-term deal with opt-outs, as the Twins did with Carlos Correa two offseasons ago. And again, an extra $30 million would also have opened up all sorts of trade possibilities that didn’t exist as is.
Is there any discussion internally about signing Trevor Bauer? — Dana B.
No. They aren’t signing Trevor Bauer.
How is Emmanuel Rodriguez looking in spring training? — Andrew M.
I’m not one to analyze spring training performances, especially for 20-year-old prospects, but I do know this is how Emmanuel Rodriguez looked in one very specific at-bat against nine-time All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel.
Emmanuel Rodriguez absolutely crushed this first pitch off Craig Kimbrel for his first HR of the spring 💣
The ball was hit 114.6mph 👀#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/ogEmC6agE9
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) March 4, 2024
Rodriguez is a really good prospect and that ball went really far.
Is this version of Royce Lewis even better than what the Twins envisioned when they drafted him No. 1? — Matt S.
Absolutely, although that’s easy to say about someone who hit .307/.364/.549 as a rookie. No one should ever expect that type of production from a rookie, and it’s unrealistic (but certainly not impossible) to assume Royce Lewis will sustain that MVP-level performance. With those caveats out of the way, this version of Lewis has more offensive upside than the version the Twins drafted in 2017.
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Lewis has become a much different player stylistically than he was coming out of high school. Part of that was forced on him by two torn ACLs that diminished his once-elite speed, but Lewis also worked to tailor his swing for damage. He once profiled as a speedy, top-of-the-lineup shortstop with a line-drive stroke. He now looks like a slugging, middle-of-the-lineup third baseman.
Which member of the 40-man roster is most likely to be a television analyst 10 years from now? — Anonymous
With the caveat that I haven’t really gotten to know most of the new guys yet, there are a lot of players on this roster with a future in television if they want it.
Correa would be at the top of the list whenever he retires, but someone with $300 million and multiple kids might not see the appeal of a regular TV gig. Ryan Jeffers, Kyle Farmer and Chris Paddack also strike me as having the gift of gab necessary. Canterino too, although he might want to wait to see if there’s a future Settlers of Catan broadcast for which he could provide analysis.
On a related note: Paddack started a new podcast called “Under the Feathers” about baseball and hunting, co-hosted by former Twins minor leaguer Logan Campbell. I’ve yet to broach the idea of a “Gleeman and the Geek” crossover.
(Photo of Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
