The full NCAA Tournament bracket has been released with UConn leading the way as No. 1 overall
Not all Cinderellas are unknowns taking down a giant. Some are power-conference giants in their own right, stooped by bad luck or a season of injuries. Come tournament time, they can be the most dangerous underdogs, thanks to a low seeding that belies their potential. Today, our Bracket Breaker experts Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner are looking at who those teams might be heading into Selection Sunday.
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Once upon a time, namely the winter of 2012-13, there was a team named the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They began the season 15-1, including wins over rivals such as Illinois and Michigan State, and climbed to No. 8 in national polls. But they lost 10 of their last 15 regular-season, finished just 8-10 in conference play, and got knocked out of the Big Ten tournament in the first round. The Gophers seemed lucky when the NCAA Tournament selection committee handed Minnesota an 11-seed.
Then Minnesota turned around and destroyed 6-seed UCLA by 20 points at the big dance.
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An early version of our statistical model saw that upset coming from a mile away, and honestly, it wasn’t hard to spot. Minnesota, which had lost four games by fewer than 5 points, was better than its record indicated, while UCLA, with a whopping 11 close wins, was considerably worse. The Bruins had obvious issues (like the very basic not shooting very well), but by far the most important predictive factor was simple: The Gophers led the entire country in offensive rebounding, grabbing a massive 43.8% of their own missed shots. When you pile up possessions that successfully, you’ll be able to withstand bouts of poor shooting, extend your scoring jags and stop opponents from putting together runs of their own.
The result held an important bigger-picture lesson, too: Strong programs that need time to gel, that go through stretches of bad luck, or that sustain injuries or suspensions may end the regular season with relatively unimpressive win totals. But if they manage to take such blows, rack up some losses and make the NCAA Tournament anyway, they will likely be underestimated and highly dangerous. We call these teams “wounded assassins.”
We don’t like to quote ourselves—aww, who are we kidding, we love to quote ourselves!—but eight years ago, we wrote:
“We usually think of Cinderella as a fresh-faced ingenue, but who says she can’t be a grad student, returning after missing a prom or two to show everyone she can still dance?”
We were referring to Syracuse, which went on to become a classic wounded assassin in 2016 and again in 2018. UCLA in 2021 was another archetypical example. And today, with power conferences hoovering up almost every possible non-auto-bid, it’s more likely than ever that their members will get seedings low enough to make them early-round underdogs.
GO DEEPER
March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners
Looking at major-conference teams that are on or close to the bubble, here’s our analysis of the squads that Slingshot sees as the best potential longshots. In our analysis, underdog rating means the estimated percentage chance to beat an average NCAA Tournament opponent seeded five slots higher.
For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast.
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TCU Horned Frogs
Conference: Big 12
Underdog Rating: 42.7
Last year, TCU belonged to a cluster of teams called “Gambling Giants,” which work to seize buckets of turnovers and clamp down on opponents’ long-range shooting while also hitting the offensive boards. History says teams with that combination of traits — Houston and Baylor are other recent examples — do very well as overdogs in the tournament’s opening rounds. Indeed, the Horned Frogs forced more turnovers, grabbed more offensive rebounds and took 10 more shots than Arizona State when beating the Sun Devils in the first round last year.
The profile is also highly effective if a team can build that many possessions and excel at perimeter defense as a lower seed—like those Syracuse teams we mentioned or TCU in 2022, when the 9th-seeded Horned Frogs blew out 8th-seeded Seton Hall.
After the Horned Frogs made it to the second round last year, they added guard Jameer Nelson to a group already heavy with seniors, and he has nabbed steals on 4.5% of opponent possessions, the 15th-best rate in the country.
TCU’s 20-10 record this year looks a couple of games worse than it should, thanks to four losses by 2 points or fewer or in overtime. The Horned Frogs appear fast because they push the ball up the court, but that’s deceptive: They hold opponents to an average possession length of 18.1 seconds, which ranks 323rd in the NCAA. They don’t shoot many threes but are more than 5 percentage points better at making them (36.2%) than in 2023. They beat Houston in January.
Whether it’s in the first or second round, what overdog should feel safe against them?
Texas A&M Aggies
Conference: SEC
Underdog Rating: 40.9
Here’s a typical Aggies possession: Missed shot, offensive rebound, missed shot, offensive rebound, missed shot, tip-in or defensive rebound. Okay, maybe it’s not quite so clear-cut, but the Aggies are the country’s best offensive-rebounding team (42%) and third-worst three-point shooters (27.8%).
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With that profile, it’s no surprise that the Aggies are massively inconsistent. They started the season with a 15-8 record, including wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa State and close losses to Houston, FAU and Memphis. Then they lost five straight games — including a 25-point blowout against Alabama and a 35-point mauling by Tennessee — before wrapping up the regular season with three straight wins.
This is not the team to bet on to make a deep run: Texas A&M just can’t muster that kind of consistency. But in a one-game setting when Wade Taylor is cooking, the Aggies are gobbling up almost half of their own missed shots, and an opponent is struggling a bit? Texas A&M can beat anyone. And that’s why our model is bullish about their upset chances.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Conference: SEC
Underdog Rating: 35.4
If our model had a soft spot in its heart, it would be for the Bulldogs. Last year, Mississippi State was like some kind of parody answer to a question from Slingshot: If a team builds possessions to protect itself from a bad shooting night, how well can it do everything except shoot?
In 2023, Mississippi State ranked 14th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, 9th in forcing steals — and 363rd out of 363 D-I teams in 3-point shooting, at a horrifying 26.6%. That combination was enough to earn them half a bid, but the Bulldogs got neutered in the 11-seed play-in game by Pitt, which didn’t do much very well except shoot threes.
Also, we love going deep on every random bit of information we can find on the teams we admire, but we admit we haven’t shown Chris Jans enough appreciation over the years. At New Mexico State, Jans took over a program that was the definition of a schoolyard bully, using its size and heft to amass offensive rebounds and destroy inferior WAC opponents year after year, only to lose in the NCAA Tournament. (Anyone remember Sim Bhullar?) Jans quickly and completely transformed those Aggies into a smaller, fleeter team that shot the lights out, took nearly half their shots from behind the arc, kept making the tournament and pulled off a 12-5 upset of UConn in 2022. He’s a terrific coach for an improving longshot.
That term applies to Mississippi State, which our model sees as the sixth-best team in the SEC. Though the Bulldogs finished the regular season under .500 in conference play thanks to very tight losses to Kentucky and South Carolina, they’re stronger overall than last year. And they still pack strong longshot traits. They grab offensive rebounds on 35.9% of their own missed shots (ranking 20th) and steals on 11.4% of opponent possessions (44th). And they strangle opponents on the perimeter, allowing foes to shoot just 29.4% on threes (the 5th-lowest rate in the nation). Mississippi State’s own three-point shooting is still below average (32.9%). But it’s markedly better than a year ago, largely because so much of it is now concentrated in attempts by outstanding freshman guard Josh Hubbard, who has launched nearly 200 more bombs than anyone else on the team and hit them at a 36.7% clip. Add it all up, and our model estimates the Bulldogs’ underdog characteristics will improve their performance by a substantial 3 points per 100 possessions against a Tournament Goliath.
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Texas Tech Red Raiders
Conference: Big 12
Underdog Rating: 32.8
A big Big 12 win over No. 11 Baylor on Saturday showed what the Red Raiders can do: In a 10-point victory, they held the Bears to just 5-of-21 shooting from behind the arc (23.8%) and seven offensive rebounds (18.9% of missed shots) while committing only 11 turnovers (16.2% of possessions) of their own. Sophomore standout Darrion Williams kept up his tremendous play: He’s had double-doubles against Kansas, Iowa State and Baylor over the past month, and he’s shooting 47.1% on threes for the season (11th in the country).
Former North Texas coach and friend of the model Grant McCasland hasn’t quite used the full bag of tricks he brought with him from Denton to Lubbock, but you can see longshot tactics taking hold as Texas Tech climbs back up the Big 12 standings. The Red Raiders play at a slow pace (ranking 247th in the nation). They take more than 40% of their shots from downtown (81st). And along with Williams, their backcourt of Joe Toussaint and Pop Isaacs are getting more minutes and playing more aggressively. “Handsy” is a word that’s been popping up in local stories about this team, and risking increased foul trouble to generate more TOs is a smart underdog move at this time of year. We may not see Texas Tech in the role of David until the tournament’s second round. But the Red Raiders are already 4-4 against top-25 teams this season, and they’ve got enough rocks for their slingshot to make any giant wary.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Conference: ACC
Underdog Rating: 32.7
Pittsburgh has already flashed serious giant-killing chops this season, beating Duke at Cameron. Granted, the Blue Devils were missing two starters, but our model likes what it sees from Jeff Capel’s squad. They play slow, take a lot of threes (44.5% of shots) and rank in the nation’s top 10 in both defensive rebounding and avoiding turnovers.
The Panthers have work to do: Mock brackets seem to think they are still on the wrong side of the bubble heading into the ACC tournament. But a couple of wins in Washington, D.C., could vault them into the NCAA field and hand a high seed a frustrating first-round matchup.
St. John’s Red Storm
Conference: Big East
Underdog Rating: 31.4
Rick Pitino may have issues with his team’s athleticism, but he can’t criticize the Red Storm’s relentlessness. St. John’s ranks sixth in the country in offensive rebounding (38.4%) — the biggest reason our model has them pegged as a dangerous matchup should they crack the tourney field.
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Granted, the Red Storm have to create second chances because they are a poor shooting team. They knock down only 33.6% of their threes. But they also create offense off their defense, thanks to a 10.2% steal rate. St. John’s showed off its upside in a commanding win over Creighton two weeks ago and rides a five-game winning streak into the Big East Tournament, where the team will hope to cement an NCAA tourney bid.
Villanova Wildcats
Conference: Big East
Underdog Rating: 30.9
While we’ve all grown accustomed to Villanova as one of the top teams in the nation, we forget that the Wildcats began the Jay Wright era by embracing a high-variance, Bracket-Breaker style of play. Those teams shot tons of threes, crashed the offensive glass and forced bundles of turnovers. In his two years since inheriting the program from Wright, Kyle Neptune has embraced some similar concepts — with a twist.
The Wildcats once again hoist a ton of threes — 47% of their shot attempts, 16th in the country. They only make 34% of them, which leads to a wide range of outcomes. The Wildcats have wins against North Carolina and Creighton and losses against Penn and Drexel. Neptune’s ‘Cats don’t gamble as much in other ways, though. They prefer to protect the defensive boards rather than extend their defense in search of turnovers, and they eschew offensive rebounding to control tempo and take care of the ball (14.4% turnover rate, 31st in the nation).
Our model loves the combination of a stout defense (14th in the country) and plodding pace (347th in adjusted tempo). Give Villanova a hot shooting night, and you’ve got a formula that we’ve seen lead to upsets time and time again.
Northwestern Wildcats
Conference: Big 10
Underdog Rating: 28.2
Fifth-year senior point guard Boo Buie not only has the best name in college hoops, he may be responsible for executing more of his team’s plays than any player in basketball. Buie plays more than 90% of Northwestern’s minutes, and runs an offense that’s more slow-motion than motion. The Wildcats typically walk the ball up the court and set a high screen for Buie. If he doesn’t get the matchup he wants, Buie passes to his screened teammate, who drives, then passes back to Buie at the top of the key, and they start again. And again. If there were no shot clock, Buie might score more than 90% of his team’s points, too. This extraordinarily patient style — Northwestern averages 64.6 possessions per game, ranking 346th in the NCAA — keeps games under control and prevents even the very best teams in the country from running away from the Wildcats: They’ve split two overtime games against Purdue and lost one game all season by double digits (to Illinois).
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Since there is a shot clock, Buie eventually needs to drive or shoot, and here’s the other factor that makes Northwestern a compelling underdog: With SG Ryan Langborg on board this year after transferring from Princeton, this entire squad has taken a leap forward in long-range efficiency. Buie and Langborg are both hitting more than 41% of their bombs, and the Wildcats as a group are at 39.6% (ranking 7th in the country, up from 282nd in 2023). This is a smart, fun team that closed the regular season by forcing 10 turnovers and committing just one in a blowout win against Minnesota. They’ve had to deal with injuries, but by now you know what that makes them: a literally wounded assassin.
(Photo of TCU’s Emanuel Miller: Chris Leduc / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)