Four MLB pitching prospects who could see time in the majors, based on stats and scouting

Data is everywhere, including the minor leagues, and the public is increasingly getting access to it. Statcast-type numbers are coming from Triple-A games, and a few Single-A parks have also hooked themselves up to the stream. For pitching in particular, that’s pretty exciting — we now have pitch shape and velocity numbers for minor leaguers.

But pitching is still an art. The way a pitcher generally broadcasts his confidence, specifically with different pitches, matters. A scout can see how he uses his pitches, which ones he feels he can command and how he reacts to adversity — that’s part of the puzzle.

Like most teams in baseball, we’ll try to blend the scouts and the stats here. I’ll bring Stuff+ reports on four of the most exciting young starters in baseball, who all happen to be close to producing in the major leagues. Andrea Arcadipane, a fantasy baseball columnist for The Athletic who founded Scout Girl Report and previously worked in baseball operations for the New York Yankees, will watch the pitchers and add some color to the data.

Your very own front office reports! Pick your favorite young arm, there’s plenty to like here.

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Sarris: Given that his best pitches by Stuff+ are the sweeper and the sinker, the big question mark for Warren is what he will do against lefties. The four-seam doesn’t have great numbers here, but he’s confident enough in it to throw it often, and any amount of command increase on that pitch (or the harder slider) will have great ramifications for his outcomes against lefties. The good news is that the changeup is a strong weapon for him — the battle will be getting ahead of lefties.

Against righties, all of his weapons are fully operational. There are statistical comparisons between his arsenal and the departed Michael King — we might see a similar path to playing time in the big leagues as the Yankees mostly deploy him against a string of righties mid-game.

With Gerrit Cole’s MRI, though, and the fact that Warren looks mostly stretched out and ready to go this spring, he could move into the rotation for good sometime soon. We will be hoping that Warren is more King than Clarke Schmidt, as the changeup and four-seam Stuff+ numbers suggest.

The Yankees could call on Will Warren with Gerrit Cole unavailable at the start of the season. (Kim Klement Neitzel / USA Today)

Arcadipane: Warren throws from a low three-quarters slot. His calling card is his command and control, which are above average. He has a four-pitch mix that works to both hands to produce weak contact and ground balls. His best pitch is his sinker, which has above-average movement. Warren throws it to both hands. He also throws a four-seam, but it is not as impressive as his sinker in terms of pitch shape and results. He has two variations of a slider: sweeper and gyro-slider. He throws the gyro-slider inside to left-handed hitters and the sweeper away from right-handed hitters. He’s able to throw the sweeper in-zone for strikes (some pitchers exclusively use the sweeper as a chase pitch).

Warren doesn’t have big swing-and-miss stuff, but he utilizes his repertoire effectively to get weak contact and ground balls, which works well for him. Additionally, in his limited spring outings, I noticed he consistently threw outer third to right-handed hitters. That might be fine for now, but major-league pitchers need to be comfortable going in on hitters. If a pitcher stays away consistently it becomes easier for hitters to lock in on the outer half. So, as Warren gets more reps in Triple A this season he should explore pitch sequencing that allows him to throw in against right-handed hitters (the sinker would be a great option for this).

With his plus command and ability to face both hands, Warren should be provided the opportunity to start at the major-league level. That being said — Warren has a tough path to a consistent starting role with the Yankees this year when considering his competition.

Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs

Sarris: By Stuff+, Brown is one of the most intriguing Triple-A starters in baseball. Look at his feel for spin as evidenced by gaudy numbers for two (three?) separate breaking balls. At the very least, those breaking balls mean he has a pitch that can get swinging strikes from either hand. Since his four-seam is his best fastball, it should work against lefties or righties too.

The problem is, of course, in that second column. He showed below-average Location+ for both his hard slider and his four-seam in the minors last year. Among the 50 young pitcher breakouts in the Stuff+ era, only one (Andy Ashby) did so without above-average command of the four-seamer, sinker or slider. The sweeper isn’t usually a pitch that you can work backward off, either, because of its large shape and platoon splits.

So we will be watching his fastball and slider command most of all this spring and early in the season. It’s what will separate him from being the power closer he could also end up being.

Arcadipane: At 6-foot-6 and 210 pounds, Brown is an imposing figure on the mound and has power stuff coming from a high slot. He works his 97 mph four-seam to the upper half against both hands and his 85 mph slider to the lower half. He’s able to throw the slider for in-zone strikes or out-of-zone for chase against left-handed hitters. The sweeper comes into play against right-handed hitters — Brown uses it to get swing-and-miss in the zone and to get chase off the outer third.

In Triple A, the upper-half four-seam seemed to be a big problem for opposing hitters of both hands. Pairing that hard four-seam up with a strong slider/sweeper (both of which he can command very well) led to many uncompetitive swings.

A very intriguing prospect, Brown has the stuff to be an impact high-strikeout pitcher and overall tough out. Control is the biggest area of improvement for Brown, as it is slightly below average and can be inconsistent at times. He suffered an oblique injury last season but is expected to join the major-league rotation early this season.

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

Sarris: Jones is nasty, and this spring, even nastier. His four-seam is elite by shape and velocity and added more ride and velocity this spring. No matter his role, that’s obviously his bread and butter, but it’s also nice to see good stuff numbers for his breaking balls.

Could we rewrite the Brown blurb here when it comes to command? Maybe. More command would make Jones a can’t-miss. But there are some mitigating circumstances here.

First, Jones (like many others) struggled against the automatic balls and strikes system in Triple A, and his 99 Location+ on the fastball is just inches away from good enough. Secondly, he placed his slider well enough that he can (by the numbers, if not the eye) consider using the slider for strikes in hitters’ counts.

The weapons look ready, the rotation spot can’t be far off, and the park situation is a good soft landing for pitching prospects. This is one of the best prospect and opportunity matches in baseball this season.

Arcadipane: Jones offers high velocity to challenge hitters and get swing-and-miss. He throws from a three-quarters slot and has three standout pitches: a four-seam that touches 101 mph, an 89 mph slider with some depth and an 83 mph curveball that gets 12-to-6 movement.

He relies on his power four-seam to set up an at-bat, as his other offerings play off his four-seam very effectively. He likes elevating the four-seam and easily misses bats. With his slider against right-handed hitters, Jones can either get chase by throwing it off the outer third or he can bury it in the dirt. Both options lead to poor swing decisions from opposing hitters.

The biggest two areas for improvement for Jones are improving his overall control and improving the command of his four-seam. Regarding the command of his four-seam — one of the battles Jones is fighting in Triple A involves the four-seam not being thrown in a competitive enough location to get swings. If he gets ahead in the count, he has the stuff to be successful. Commanding his four-seam is going to be vital for his success in the majors, as it sets a strong tone and sets up his secondaries very well.

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

Sarris: These Stuff+ numbers are normalized for the big leagues, suggesting that Jobe already has the physical shapes and velocity to dominate in the majors. He led all starters in Single A last year in this metric and showed five potentially dominant pitches.

The caveat here is less about age and level and more about sample size. We can believe the Stuff+ on the fastball in that sample, but the rest of the pitches weren’t thrown enough to fully believe their ratings here.

When it comes to fastball location, that’s good news. When it comes to the changeup and curve, we should align our stats with what the scouts say. Read below for some more on that.

The only question here is how fast Jobe will get to the majors. After 80 innings combined in the minors last year, seems like 120 might be a soft cap for him this year. Could he get 40 in the majors and preserve his rookie eligibility?

3D tracking — Jackson Jobe

101 mph fastball, 96 mph cutter, 86 mph changeup pic.twitter.com/GFtoP1fC0O

— David Adler (@_dadler) March 12, 2024

Arcadipane: Jobe has very clean, fluid and repeatable mechanics. He attacks hitters with four above-average pitches. He’s confident on the mound and often throws middle to challenge hitters. He has above-average control and does a great job of limiting walks. He forces hitters to think by throwing stuff to all four quadrants of the zone to keep hitters off balance.

Jobe, 21, is still growing into his strength, but he already has above-average velocity on his fastball (95-96 mph). He has sharp movement on his stuff, especially his 85 mph slider and his 89 mph changeup. The slider gets plus sweep and depth. At times he will start the slider outer third and then chase hitters off the plate with it. The changeup gets above-average late fade and tunnels effectively with the four-seam. It gets tight, late movement to deceive hitters. In his first Double-A start last September, he showed his confidence by throwing his slider and changeup to both hands. He also uses his 89 mph cutter in on the hands to left-handed hitters and the changeup to the outer half.

Despite missing half of last season with lumbar spine inflammation, Jobe did not miss a beat upon returning. Based on his above-average control, ability to get swing-and-miss and overall confidence on the mound, I expect a dominant 2024 season from Jobe.

(Top photo of Ben Brown pitching in a Feb. 24 Cactus League game: Matt Dirksen / Getty Images)