Ranking the Twins prospects most likely to make a rookie impact in 2024

FORT MYERS, FL- MARCH 16: Brooks Lee #22 and Austin Martin #2 of the Minnesota Twins looks on during the 2024 Spring Breakout Game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins on March 16, 2024 at the Lee County Sports Complex in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)
By Aaron Gleeman
Mar 20, 2024

Last season’s rookie class was arguably the greatest in Minnesota Twins history, as the hitting trio of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner combined for record-setting production and the pitching staff got a big boost from Louie Varland in multiple roles.

Expecting rookies to make anywhere close to that type of impact again in 2024 would be beyond wishful thinking, but the Twins have another wave of talented prospects ready to join the big-league mix this season, including some potential long-term building blocks.

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Here’s my ranking of the 10 prospects most likely to make an impact for the Twins as rookies in 2024.

(Note: Players with at least 50 innings or 150 at-bats in the majors no longer qualify as prospects or rookies and aren’t included on this list.)

1. Brooks Lee, SS/3B/2B

Twenty months after being a top-10 pick, Brooks Lee is a consensus top-100 prospect whose strong spring training performance has added to the belief that he’s nearly major-league-ready. Now it’s just a question of when and where. Lee, 23, ended last season at Triple A and he’s gotten reps at three positions this spring to prepare for whatever path opens up in the Twins’ infield.

Lee was the back-to-back Big West conference player of the year while playing for his father, Larry Lee, at Cal Poly, and the switch-hitting shortstop has been promoted aggressively by the Twins. He’s been up to the challenge, batting .281/.355/.459 with 20 homers, 68 total extra-base hits and 72 walks versus 111 strikeouts in 156 games. And he’s been one of the stars of camp this spring.

Lee is a capable defensive shortstop and has the skill set to be a very good third baseman, but may end up at second base because Carlos Correa and Lewis have the left side of the infield covered for the foreseeable future. He’s on track for a midseason debut, but could arrive sooner if any of Correa, Lewis, Julien, Carlos Santana or Alex Kirilloff is injured. Lee is on the doorstep to the big leagues.

2. David Festa, SP

Anthony DeSclafani being the lone veteran rotation acquisition this offseason increases the Twins’ chances of having to rely on David Festa to make a bunch of starts in 2024. Festa has come a long way since he was a 13th-round pick out of Seton Hall in 2021, adding substantial velocity and racking up 239 strikeouts in 204 1/3 innings to rank as a borderline top-100 prospect.

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Festa’s control still needs work after walking 4.1 per nine innings last year, but the 6-foot-6 right-hander pairs his mid-90s fastball with a power slider and a solid changeup. He profiles as a mid-rotation starter for now, with the potential for more if the 24-year-old can consistently throw strikes and further refine his changeup to be a reliable option versus left-handed hitters.

DeSclafani’s elbow injury forces the Twins to dip into the minor-league starter pool sooner than hoped, with Varland taking over his rotation spot. That could push Festa as high as No. 6 on the season-opening rotation depth chart despite having only three Triple-A starts under his belt, which would all but guarantee him extended big-league action. He could be a long-term rotation fixture.

3. Austin Martin, OF/2B

His window to make the Opening Day roster closed with the trade for veteran outfielder Manuel Margot, but Austin Martin remains in line to play a sizable role for the Twins this season. He finished last season on a high note after a first-half elbow injury, hitting .300/.428/.473 in his final 44 games for Triple-A St. Paul, and Martin is a viable defensive option at second base, center field and left field.

Martin’s power hasn’t grown as hoped since he was the No. 5 pick in the 2020 draft and the headline prospect in the Jose Berríos trade, so he may never live up to that hype. However, his mix of plate discipline, bat-to-ball skills, fielding flexibility and speed should make him a solid regular or a high-end utilityman. Martin has a .390 on-base percentage with 64 steals in 242 high-minors games.

There are several ways in which Martin could find a fit with the Twins in 2024. He can play center field regularly if Margot or Byron Buxton is injured. He can be a right-handed platoon bat in the outfield corners. He can stand in at second base if Julien is out and Lee isn’t considered ready. And he can bounce around, filling in all over the field. Expect to see plenty of Martin this season.

4. Kody Funderburk, RP

The trade for Miami Marlins left-hander Steven Okert in mid-February initially appeared to push Kody Funderburk out of the Opening Day bullpen, but Caleb Thielbar’s hamstring injury likely means the 27-year-old rookie will slot in as a second southpaw. Stuck as a middling Double-A starter, Funderburk made the full-time move to the bullpen last year and was in the majors four months later.

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Funderburk had a 2.36 ERA with 89 strikeouts in 61 high-minors innings, and then more than held his own in 19 innings for the Twins. He can get grounders and some whiffs with a low-90s cutter and sinker, and can put away lefties and righties with a revamped, low-80s slider, giving him the potential to be more than merely a lefty-on-lefty specialist.

5. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP

Acquired along with Martin in the Berríos trade, Simeon Woods Richardson’s prospect stock dropped with his velocity last season. Too often throwing 88-90 mph, instead of his 92-94 mph peak, he managed just 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings at Triple A and allowed 171 base runners across 113 2/3 innings. He struggled in an April 22 spot start for the Twins and wasn’t called up again.

Woods Richardson has looked like a different pitcher this spring, rediscovering his velocity thanks to mechanical adjustments and positioning himself to be in-season rotation depth. He needs to maintain it for months, not weeks, but SWR is still just 23 years old and has the quality changeup to be a valuable big-league starter if his fastball velocity is back for good.

6. Yunior Severino, 1B/3B

Leading the minor leagues with 35 homers last year got Yunior Severino added to the 40-man roster, but the Twins aren’t yet convinced the 25-year-old is part of their future plans. Severino has slid to the bottom of the defensive spectrum after signing as a second baseman, and his strikeout rate is high enough to be a red flag. He was left unprotected in two past Rule 5 drafts and went unpicked.

But it’s tough not to take notice of a switch-hitting slugger with 43 homers in 157 games against Double-A and Triple-A pitchers. Severino is no more than an emergency option at second base and third base, but he’s decent at first base and his power would certainly fit at designated hitter. He’s someone to watch if Santana shows his age or Kirilloff and Jose Miranda are injured again.

7. Jair Camargo, C

Minnesota was the lone American League team to need only two catchers last year, so Jair Camargo spent all of 2023 with the Saints, hitting .259/.323/.503 with 21 homers in 90 games and throwing out 25 percent of runners on stolen-base attempts. That earned him a spot on the 40-man roster, but the 24-year-old is again No. 3 on the depth chart behind veterans Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez.

Odds are the Twins will need a third catcher at some point, so Camargo should at least make his big-league debut this year, but barring an injury (or a trade) he lacks a clear path to regular playing time. Plate discipline has been a career-long weakness, but 20-homer pop and a strong arm are enough for Camargo to profile as a quality backup catcher with the upside to become more.

8. Matt Canterino, SP

Injuries have repeatedly halted Matt Canterino’s development, limiting him to 85 innings since he was a second-round pick in 2019, and now a shoulder strain has paused his comeback from Tommy John surgery. He looked strong early in camp, showing that his high-octane raw stuff remains intact, and the Twins will be tempted to call up the 26-year-old if he stays healthy for even a few months.

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9. Brent Headrick, SP

Brent Headrick is slated for a similar up-and-down role as last season, when he made 14 low-leverage relief appearances for the Twins and logged 75 innings as a Triple-A starter. He lacks the fastball velocity to succeed without improving his control, but the 26-year-old left-hander’s slider has shown signs of being a bat-missing weapon and he can eat innings.

10. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF

This is admittedly a long shot. Emmanuel Rodriguez just turned 21 and has yet to even play a Double-A game, so 2025 is a more plausible ETA. But he’s also a top-100 prospect with huge upside, combining elite discipline, 30-homer power and above-average speed. If he plays well enough to earn a midseason Triple-A promotion, he might be able to force his way into the Twins’ late-season plans.

(Photo of Brooks Lee and Austin Martin: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

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Aaron Gleeman

Aaron Gleeman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Minnesota Twins. He was previously the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus and a senior writer for NBC Sports. He was named the 2021 NSMA Minnesota Sportswriter of the Year and co-hosts the "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast. Follow Aaron on Twitter @AaronGleeman