College basketball’s season ends with the two best teams playing for a national title. UConn battling Purdue marks only the 10th time in NCAA Tournament history two No. 1 seeds will play in the finals. The Huskies are the defending champs on a dominant two-year run. Reigning Player of the Year Zach Edey is the counter Purdue is hoping to ride to its first title. Entering Monday night’s clash in Phoenix, UConn is favored to win by a handful of points.
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The two most efficient teams in the sport this season (per KenPom) feature balanced, experienced lineups. UConn and Purdue are No. 1 and No. 3, respectively, in offensive efficiency. A pair of top-12 defenses accentuate elite offense. But all eyes will be centered on a monster interior matchup. Both the 7-foot-4 Edey and UConn’s 7-foot-2 projected NBA Lottery pick Donovan Clingan are dominant forces capable of impacting any possession.
Unstoppable in tournament play, Edey is averaging 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game on 65 percent shooting. Although not a dominant offensive weapon like his counterpart, Clingan is top 10 in the country in block rate this season (11.8 percent for seventh nationally) and an adequate double-double threat (16.2 points, nine rebounds, 3.6 blocks per game in the Tournament).
UConn anticipates Clingan can slow Edey as a solo defender with occasional help. That will likely require Clingan to push past 30 minutes of playing time, a feat the sophomore only accomplished three times this season. Edey only missed three minutes out of a possible 120 over the last three games.
Scoring balance gives UConn an edge outside the matchup at center. All five Husky starters average double-figure scoring. All-American floor general Tristen Newton is flanked by capable perimeter scoring options like Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban. A career-high 21 points in the semifinal win over Alabama continued a strong tournament for emerging freshman Stephon Castle.
After establishing Edey, the Boilermakers need consistent perimeter shooting and limited turnovers. Second in the country in 3-point percentage (40.6 percent), Purdue made 10 triples in the semifinal win over NC State. The Boilermakers have to improve on the 16 turnovers that let the Wolfpack linger in the second half. Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer played effectively to offset a 1-for-9 shooting effort and five turnovers from point guard Braden Smith.
What: National championship game
Tipoff time: 9:20 p.m. ET Monday
TV: TBS
Location: Glendale, Ariz.
UConn vs. Purdue odds
Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.
Expert picks
UConn vs. Purdue model projection
Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the outcome of each game in the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the men’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here are Austin’s projections for the national title game:
Projected final score: UConn 75.3, Purdue 68.8 (UConn by 6.5, point total: 144)
Players to watch
UConn
- Tristen Newton, graduate guard, first-team All-Big East
- Cam Spencer, graduate guard, first-team All-Big East
- Donovan Clingan, sophomore center, honorable mention All-Big East
Purdue
- Zach Edey, senior center, Big Ten Player of the Year, first-team All-Big Ten, All-Big Ten defensive team
- Braden Smith, sophomore guard, first-team All-Big Ten
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(Photo of Zach Edey: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)