Follow live coverage as UConn, Purdue play for the national championship today
Defending national champion UConn hasn’t faced much adversity the last two NCAA Tournaments. The No. 1 overall seed owns nine consecutive double-digit March Madness wins by an average margin of 22.8 points per game. High-powered Illinois is hoping to give the Huskies their first close NCAA Tournament game in the last two years.
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An enticing East Regional Elite Eight showdown in Boston features college basketball’s top two offenses. UConn is once again favored by close to double figures.
In the Sweet 16, UConn dismantled San Diego State by 30 points to become the first reigning champs to reach the Elite Eight since Florida’s back-to-back title runs in 2007. Trailing only 28 seconds through three games in the 2024 tournament, the Huskies display remarkable consistency during high-leverage games.
All five starters are capable of leading the nation’s most efficient offense (per KenPom). Experienced floor general Tristen Newton is an All-American surrounded by talent. Guard Cam Spencer (18 points) paced the Husky offense in the win over the Aztecs. Talented freshman wing Stephon Castle (16 points, 11 rebounds) registered his first college double-double. Even with 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan and standout sophomore forward Alex Karaban having slow offensive nights, the Huskies made quick work of San Diego State.
Illinois will continue to ride the hot hand of senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. The nation’s third-leading scorer is averaging 28.3 points per game while shooting 59.2 percent from the field during an outstanding NCAA Tournament run. Limited to only 22 minutes in the Sweet 16 win over Iowa State, Shannon still managed 29 points against the nation’s No. 1 defense despite second-half foul trouble.
The Fighting Illini survived the Cyclones’ chaotic perimeter defense and didn’t seem bothered with Iowa State slowing down the tempo. Secondary Illinois options like senior guard Marcus Domask and skilled forward Coleman Hawkins will be asked to elevate their scoring if UConn throws waves of defenders to slow down Shannon.
Inspired defense was a key for Illinois in the Sweet 16 win. A solid unit ranked 84th in the country rose to the occasion with more aggressive perimeter defense. Shannon overplayed passing lanes for three of Illinois’ eight steals and the Illini limited the Cyclones to 39 percent shooting. To stay with an imposing giant like UConn, Illinois needs its defense to elevate as it did against Iowa State.
What: East Region, Elite Eight
Tipoff time: 6:09 p.m. ET Saturday
TV: TBS
Location: Boston
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UConn vs. Illinois odds
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Expert picks
UConn vs. Illinois projected scores
Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the outcome of each game in the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the men’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here are Austin’s projections for the UConn vs. Illinois point spread and total:
Projected point spread: UConn -8
Projected total points: 152.5
Projected final score: UConn 80.3, Illinois 72.3
Players to watch
UConn
- Tristen Newton, graduate guard, first-team All-Big East
- Cam Spencer, graduate guard, first-team All-Big East
- Donovan Clingan, sophomore center, honorable mention All-Big East
Illinois
- Terrence Shannon Jr., graduate guard, first-team All-Big Ten
- Marcus Domask, graduate guard, first-team All-Big Ten
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(Photo of Alex Karaban: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)