Have Chelsea improved in the year since they sacked Graham Potter?

Boos at the final whistle, two goals conceded and another disappointing result at Stamford Bridge to leave Chelsea in 11th position. Fans of the club can be forgiven for thinking not much has changed in a year.

Chelsea’s 2-2 draw with 10-man Burnley on Saturday offered the perfect opportunity to gauge whether they have progressed since Graham Potter was sacked as their manager almost exactly 12 months ago.

On the eve of this fixture against a team who look destined for a return to the Championship after a year back among the domestic elite, Chelsea head coach Mauricio Pochettino claimed how “if you look at all the parameters that are used on radio, TV and in newspapers, we should be in the top four.”

Unfortunately, the league table is still determined on wins, draws and losses, not ifs, buts and maybes.

Chelsea co-owner Behdad Eghbali looks on as they fail to overcome Burnley’s 10 men (Crystal Pix/MB Media/Getty Images)

The problem with leaning on data to highlight the positives is you can use it to paint any story you desire. But the negatives can not, and should not, be ignored. The sad reality is that, in terms of league standing, Chelsea have not improved a great deal under summer appointment Pochettino. Any talk of performances worthy of the Champions League qualifying positions feels rather fanciful.

It was on the corresponding weekend a year ago that the Todd Boehly-Clearlake consortium decided it had seen enough as far as Potter was concerned. After losing 2-0 at home to Aston Villa on April 1, Chelsea sat in 11th with 38 points from 28 games. They were saddled with a goal difference of minus one. The manager hired away from fellow top-flight side Brighton just shy of seven months earlier was dismissed the following day.

It is worth remembering Potter did not take over before pre-season — a luxury afforded Pochettino. He was handed the post as Thomas Tuchel’s replacement early in the September, so oversaw only 22 of those 28 Premier League matches. It is much harder to introduce your style of play to the squad after a season is underway, especially given a schedule cluttered with Champions League football, as that one was. Chelsea have not had any European distractions this season.

There was hope Pochettino would spark much better results, especially with the benefit of a summer to work with the squad and no European competition to clog up the midweeks. So how much better off are 2023-24 Chelsea after the same number of top-flight fixtures?

Two points.

Their goal difference is marginally healthier — at plus two, it is at least positive — but they are 11th again. It has hardly been a dramatic transformation.

Dara O’Shea’s header eludes Djordje Petrovic for the visitors’ second equaliser (Crystal Pix/MB Media/Getty Images)

Admittedly, Chelsea have been involved in far more entertaining games under Pochettino than Potter oversaw. The draws with Liverpool (1-1), Arsenal (2-2) and Manchester City (4-4, 1-1) spring to mind. The Burnley fixture was the latest thrilling offering, with the teams contributing a combined 51 shots — 33 from Chelsea, and the visitors mustering 18. Not that the majority of supporters in the stadium would have found the end-to-end nature of the contest particularly good viewing, given the hosts were up against 10 men from the 40th minute.

Even so, the impending anniversary of Potter’s departure offers an opportunity to compare the coaches’ records.

As you can see in the graphic below, where numbers highlighted in blue represent who has the best statistic and those in red the worst, Pochettino comes out on top in most of the categories. Is that evidence of progress?

The Argentinian boasts both a higher points per game average and a better win percentage. His team have scored more goals per game on average, too. Yet that is countered by the current side’s defensive fragility. If Pochettino does have the edge in a head-to-head with his predecessor, it is not exactly the convincing margin for which the Chelsea ownership would have hoped when making their choice last summer.

What if their results from all competitions are taken into account?

Pochettino has not had to confront Champions League (or Europa League, or Conference League) football as Potter did, but has gone a lot further in the domestic cup competitions by reaching the Carabao Cup final and the FA Cup semi-finals, where they will face Manchester City on April 20. Such progress should definitely be considered a success, fuelling Pochettino’s argument for positivity. But the 52-year-old has also benefited from much easier draws than Potter, who had to face treble-bound City at their Etihad Stadium home in the third round of both cups. It came as no great surprise when Chelsea lost those ties.

Even so, looking at all their respective results gives another indication of how much Chelsea have advanced under Pochettino and this illustration does make slightly better reading.

The most telling numbers remain the goals scored and conceded. Pochettino has clearly improved Chelsea’s attacking output — the input of summer signing Cole Palmer, who scored both goals against Burnley, has helped — even if the hefty tally of chances missed every week indicates there is still plenty of room for improvement. But in achieving that goals tally, defensive standards have slipped.

Under their current coach, Chelsea are on course to set a club record for most goals conceded in the Premier League since it began in 1992.

They are just eight goals shy of the grim benchmark of 55 set in 1994-95 (when there were 42 games, not 38) and 1996-97. Given they have let in two goals in five successive outings in all competitions — against the dubious might of Leeds United of the Championship, Brentford, Newcastle United, second-tier Leicester City and 10-men-for-50-minutes, second-bottom Burnley — it will take some turnaround for them not to eclipse that figure over the remaining 10 league matches.

Chelsea have shown signs of progress under Pochettino, though not as many as anticipated (Alex Broadway/Getty Images)

Pochettino will have one year left on his contract come the summer — with the option for another 12 months. His future, as well as Chelsea’s season, will be assessed by the hierarchy then.

Names of potential successors are already being discussed in the public domain, though the club deny they have begun actively looking for a new head coach.

The argument to stick rather than twist again would certainly be bolstered if Pochettino can put even greater distance between his numbers and Potter’s over the final two months of the season.

(Top photos: Getty Images)