Timberwolves have a Suns problem as the NBA playoffs approach

So much of what happened for the Minnesota Timberwolves in Phoenix on Friday night can be dismissed as just one of those off nights that happen in the NBA.

The Wolves are rarely going to shoot 19 of 47 in the paint for an entire game. Rudy Gobert won’t miss as many dunks as he did in the third quarter. Naz Reid going 3 of 13 is not something the Wolves are used to seeing.

But there is something the Wolves can’t dismiss. They were down 15-0 to start the game and had a disastrous first quarter overall, continuing a troubling trend of slow starts in recent games that has to turn around before the playoffs begin. The Wolves shot just 33 percent in the first quarter of a 97-87 loss to the Suns, digging a hole that even their accomplished second unit could not find a way to make up.

In the past four games, the Wolves are averaging a little more than 20 points and shooting 37 percent from the field in the first quarter while turning the ball over 18 times in the opening frame. They have found their way back into the three previous games, but facing a team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal offered little margin for error this time.

“That’s been a little bit of a habit for us is high-turnover first quarters and struggling to score out of the gate,” coach Chris Finch said to the media in Phoenix.

The Wolves were able to recover from slow starts at home against tanking Toronto and scuffling Houston. They were able to rally to take the lead against Chicago before faltering late. But they were never in the game against Phoenix, the second time this season the Suns have throttled them.

The Suns and New Orleans Pelicans are the two teams this season that have looked most comfortable against the Wolves. It just so happens that Minnesota has a very realistic shot at facing one of them in the first round of the playoffs.

The Wolves (53-24) and Denver Nuggets have identical records at the top of the Western Conference. Oklahoma City (52-25) is one game back. The Suns (46-31) currently sit in sixth place in the conference, and the Pelicans (45-32) are in seventh. If the Pelicans win their first game of the Play-In Tournament and the Wolves finish the regular season in the No. 2 spot, those two would square off. If the Wolves drop to third place — entirely possible given the log jam at the top — the Suns could be coming to Minnesota for Game 1.

The Wolves should go into either series with confidence that they can prevail, especially if Karl-Anthony Towns returns and is ready to go from the start of the first round. But they cannot afford to get off to the sluggish starts they have been lately when the playoffs begin. They did not score their first field goal on Friday night until Jaden McDaniels hit a jumper with 6 minutes, 58 seconds left in the first quarter to make the score 17-4. Minnesota turned the ball over eight times in the first quarter and 14 times by halftime.

Guarantee you'll love everything about this sequence 🤌 pic.twitter.com/5H4aOeWF4M

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) April 6, 2024

Whereas the Bulls, Rockets and Raptors don’t have the weapons to kill a team that starts so poorly, the Suns are built to play with a lead. Grayson Allen, the NBA’s leading 3-point shooter, went 4 of 8 from 3 and totaled 23 points. Durant scored 22 and Beal hit his first five shots to get the Suns out to a 19-point lead in the first half.

“They’ve beaten us handily twice. All credit to them,” Finch said. “The first time our defense was awful. Tonight our offense was awful. We have to put the two together.”

One of the most impressive parts of this surprising season for the Wolves has been the relative lack of blowout losses. The Suns won the first meeting in Phoenix by 18 points on Nov. 15. They led the rematch by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter, but the score was tightened when it went to garbage time and the Wolves finished on a 13-0 run.

Aside from those decisive defeats, a 23-point loss at Oklahoma City in December and a 14-point and 11-point loss to the Pelicans stand out as the few games that the Wolves have looked outclassed.

It was only the third time since the calendar flipped to 2024 that the Wolves have lost by double digits, so there certainly is no time to panic. But they do understand the optics of getting flattened twice by Phoenix as the playoffs approach.

“We know they’re a really good team. We believe in our strength, we believe in ourselves,” said Gobert, who was outplayed by Jusuf Nurkić and finished with just four points and six rebounds in 29 minutes. “We know every game’s different. It will be good to see them in a week. … We know we’ll be better. It’s going to be hard not to be better than we were tonight offensively.”

The Timberwolves were outscored by 26 points in Gobert’s minutes, a rarity this season. He had four points and eight rebounds and was a minus-25 in the first meeting against Phoenix, though that was the second night of a back-to-back. Nurkić’s rugged presence around the rim and the array of Suns shooters give the Wolves defense some problems. But it’s the offense that needs to pick up against Phoenix.

Mike Conley was 1 of 6 from the field and turned it over three times on Friday night, an uncharacteristically sloppy game from one of their most reliable players. Reid missed several shots at the rim and was 1 of 5 from deep. Edwards was the only starter in double figures, finishing with 17 points on 6-of-19 shooting.

The Wolves have been encouraged by how their offense has functioned in Towns’ absence. They came into the game with the eighth-ranked offense over the previous 10 games, no doubt propped up some by games against the Raptors, Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz (twice).

On Friday night, it was a disaster. They shot 39 percent for the game, only made 10 3s and gave Phoenix 24 points on 19 turnovers.

The Wolves have leaned on their top-ranked defense all season long, and that end was good enough on Friday night. McDaniels held Booker to 13 points on 3-of-12 shooting, Beal was just 1 of 4 after hitting his first five shots, and the Wolves forced 18 turnovers.

But even after the nice run offensively over the last few weeks, the Wolves are still ranked just 18th in offensive efficiency on the season. It is a point of emphasis to improve as the playoffs approach. Getting Towns back would certainly help a great deal, but against the most high-powered teams like the Suns, they know it hasn’t been nearly good enough.

“When you’re playing this team, you have to be good offensively,” Conley said. “You have to go out there, and you have to be playing well on the other end of the floor because they’re going to make shots. They’re going to be great on that end.”

Minnesota will play Phoenix in the final game of the regular season. It is not yet clear if that will be a meaningful one for the Wolves. But after two overwhelming losses to the Suns, Conley said they cannot let that affect how they approach the final week of the regular season.

“We can’t think about that as far as a situation we want to avoid or anything like that,” Conley said. “I think we’ll be ready. And I think we’ll have to make those adjustments whenever we play.”

(Photo of Jusuf Nurkić and Rudy Gobert: Barry Gossage / NBAE via Getty Images)