Where do Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Guardians go from here?

Cleveland’s starting rotation has been the team’s backbone for a decade, and the group entered this season with a ton of potential — and fragility.

Shane Bieber embodied both qualities, rediscovering his award-winning self on the mound, all while his elbow screamed with each pitch. Now, he’s headed for season-ending Tommy John surgery, leaving his future uncertain and the Guardians’ rotation in early-season disarray, putting a damper on the club’s 6-2 start.

Where does this leave the rotation?

In a precarious spot.

They need Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen to fend off any sophomore-year setbacks. They need Triston McKenzie, who also dealt with a balky elbow last year, to stay healthy. They need Gavin Williams, another member of the Tender Elbow Club, to make a swift-but-certain recovery. Williams is a few weeks from pitching in a big-league game, team president Chris Antonetti said Saturday.

So, it’s Bibee, Allen, McKenzie and then a bunch of patchwork. Carlos Carrasco and Tyler Beede clawed their way onto the Opening Day roster after signing minor-league deals with the organization. Carrasco is in the rotation, and Beede, who was stretched out as a starter in camp, has pitched out of the pen thus far.

Xzavion Curry and Ben Lively both missed time in spring training because of a virus. They have each logged one rehab start at Triple-A Columbus as they build back up. Antonetti said either could be an option. Curry threw 53 pitches in his tune-up; Lively threw 45.

Left-handed prospect Joey Cantillo could have been a candidate, but he’s out for a couple of months with a strained hamstring. Hunter Gaddis, who has shifted to a relief role, is expected to remain there.

Carrasco and McKenzie are starting the final two games of the club’s series in Minnesota this weekend. Allen will slide up one day and start Cleveland’s home opener on Monday in place of Bieber. Bibee could pitch on regular rest Tuesday, but after that, the team will sort through its options. In the meantime, they called up reliever Peter Strzelecki on Saturday to assume Bieber’s roster spot.

Manager Stephen Vogt said his message to the team Saturday was, “It’s OK to not be OK. But this is what it is. We have an opportunity to go out and play every day. The next-man-up mentality is what we have to be thinking about. You can’t replace Shane Bieber. But we do have guys who can step up and give us meaningful innings.”

What does this mean for Bieber’s future?

This isn’t what he had in mind when he resisted long-term contract offers from the club. He’ll enter free agency this winter, having missed significant time in 2021 (shoulder strain), 2023 (elbow soreness), and 2024 (elbow surgery). Since the Tommy John procedure recovery timeline is usually more than a year, he could also miss a decent chunk of 2025.

It’s a hard landing for Bieber, who has proven that, when healthy, he’s among the league’s most effective starters. Since the start of the 2019 season — his first full year in the majors — he has a 3.02 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Even after his fastball velocity plunged and he lost trust in his curveball, he reinvented himself in 2022, leaning more on his cutter and slider and logging 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA.

This season, he totaled 20 strikeouts in his first two starts. He didn’t allow a run in either outing, which is even more impressive given he didn’t bounce back physically between starts. After he blanked the Mariners on Tuesday, the swelling and soreness in his elbow didn’t subside. That prompted imaging and consultations with several doctors, leading to the diagnosis that his UCL needs repairing.

Through a pair of starts, Shane Bieber leads Major League Baseball in strikeouts with 20.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/f7ibqNwGOi

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) April 3, 2024

Bieber turns 29 at the end of May. Might he settle for a two-year deal, in which the mutual hope is a return from injury sometime in Year 1 and an opportunity to rebuild his value in Year 2?

Tyler Mahle, who underwent Tommy John surgery last May, signed that sort of contract with the Rangers. He’ll earn $5.5 million this season, though he isn’t expected to pitch until mid-summer. He’ll earn another $16.5 million next season. (This wouldn’t be the first time Bieber followed in Mahle’s footsteps: When Mahle passed on attending UC Santa Barbara in favor of signing with the Reds out of high school, it opened a spot on the college staff for Bieber, a walk-on pitcher.)

Brandon Woodruff signed a similar deal with the Brewers in February. The Brewers granted him a $2.5 million salary for 2024, even though he’s recovering from shoulder surgery. If they want, they can cut ties after this season or exercise a team option for 2025 (worth $5 million, with a $10 million buyout or $20 million salary for 2026).

Could Bieber strike that sort of arrangement in Cleveland? The home of a vaunted pitching factory seems like a wise place to settle, though the Guardians don’t typically pay for external pitching, especially with increased risk. Perhaps there’s some common ground to strike.

The Guardians fielded trade offers for Bieber over the winter (and even last summer, before he was shut down with elbow soreness), but teams approached it as a buy-low effort and Cleveland didn’t deem anything particularly enticing. By holding onto him, the Guardians positioned themselves to lean on him to contend or move him at the trade deadline. Now, neither is possible.

Bieber made the decision Friday night to undergo surgery in the coming days.

“He’s devastated by it,” Antonetti said. “He feels as though he is letting a lot of people down. And I tried to reassure Shane that couldn’t be further from the truth.”

GO DEEPER

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Who’s the most important player in the wake of Bieber’s injury?

It’s McKenzie. This rotation needs a rock, someone to chew up innings at a high level. So, how about the guy who also suffered an elbow injury last year and who has Cleveland holding its collective breath every time he pitches?

Bieber and McKenzie were essentially co-aces in 2022, paving Cleveland’s path to a division title and an AL Division Series appearance. McKenzie, though, made only four starts last season because of a strain in the back of his shoulder and an elbow sprain. He opted to rest his elbow rather than head to the operating table.

McKenzie has reported no injury issues since the end of last season, but his fastball averaged only 90.5 mph in his first start, down nearly two mph from his typical velocity. The Mariners whacked that fastball on Monday, with an average exit velocity of 101.2 mph against the pitch.

(Photo: Jason Miller / Getty Images)