Unless something exceptional happens, Crystal Palace will not be relegated this season.
For all the anxiety that has accompanied this campaign, which has heightened after Luton Town’s victory over Bournemouth on Saturday left Palace just five points clear of the relegation zone, dropping into the Championship remains unlikely.
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In a season where much has gone wrong, it is understandable that some remain alarmed by the possibility of second-tier football next year, but it would take something extraordinary for their luck to run out.
It would be an astonishing failure from the top of the club if they are still relegated this season, the weakest for a long time and with two clubs — Nottingham Forest and Everton — receiving points deductions.
Data from Opta in their season simulation, however, puts the chances of Palace being relegated at 2.8 per cent. With Sheffield United and Burnley almost certain to go down (0.4 per cent and 1.9 per cent chance of survival respectively, according to Opta), that leaves just one position remaining, with Luton, Forest, Brentford, Everton and Palace fighting to avoid it.
Palace’s run-in is the most challenging, with Opta ranking their average opponent difficulty at 89 out of 100, with Luton’s second at 88.
On Monday, Everton were deducted a further two points for breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules. That affords Palace a little more breathing space. Everton’s run-in is kinder, although they have won just once in 14 games. Luton have won once in their last 10, Brentford one in 11 and Forest one in seven. It would take a notable improvement to overcome the deficit, with three teams between Palace and Luton.
The major positive of the run-in from a Palace perspective is that several of their rivals towards the bottom will face each other, making dropped points a certainty.
But this supposes that Palace will not take any points from their final seven games. That is improbable. However difficult they are, points are still achievable. Fixtures with West Ham United, Fulham and Wolverhampton Wanderers all offer the potential to take points. Palace have a game in hand, albeit against a seemingly resurgent Newcastle United.
Performances have improved under Oliver Glasner, even if results have not yet followed the pattern. His side have taken the lead in five of six games and produced their most accomplished 45 minutes of the season in the 4-2 defeat to Manchester City on Saturday.
Since Glasner took over, Palace are 14th in the form table, having accumulated five points — the same as those in the relegation fight.
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He says he is not concerned but conceded after last week’s 1-0 defeat at Bournemouth that his side is in a relegation battle.
“As long as the mathematics don’t tell you something different, you are,” Glasner said. “In the Premier League, you can have a point or win everywhere but you can lose everywhere. Newcastle played at home against Everton and they said three points were clear (but the game ended 1-1).
“I’m really convinced, I don’t know when, but I’m sure these games will fall to our side. I’m sure it will happen, not because we are magicians, but because I know the character of the players and I see how they work.”
A visit to Liverpool on Sunday will offer further opportunity to establish familiarity. He may not “wave the white flag” as he promised he wouldn’t against Man City, but it will be difficult for his depleted squad to take points at Anfield. Therefore, Palace may face another fortnight of uncertainty and anxiety.
The following week, they host West Ham and Newcastle in the space of four days, before an away fixture against Fulham.
Two of those games provide good opportunities to pick up points. Win one and safety is far more assured. Fulham, comfortably in 13th, nine points ahead of Palace, will have less incentive to perform, as will Wolves in 11th on 42 points. While that may help Luton as well, who have to face them both, it is of less concern because survival is in Palace’s hands. Luton must better their results.
Since promotion in 2013, Palace have only once taken fewer than six points from their final seven games — during Project Restart in the Covid-19-affected 2019-20 campaign, where under Roy Hodgson they lost every game except a 1-1 draw with Tottenham Hotspur on the final day.
They were clear of relegation then. The threat of the drop will surely focus minds.
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Michael Olise returned from a hamstring injury to make a positive impression late on against City and Chris Richards could be fit to face West Ham if the prediction of two to three weeks is accurate. Marc Guehi may yet return from a knee injury before the campaign’s conclusion. Jesurun Rak-Sakyi is in a similar situation to Olise and will also provide an attacking option from the bench.
It is Olise’s return that will be most beneficial. Even if he is not risked from the start against Liverpool, his potential to contribute in that defining week of three games where he will be most needed will be far greater.
The performance against City should provide optimism that Palace are heading in the right direction.
Those of an older generation may shout ‘but Oldham!’ in reference to a turnaround which saw Palace relegated on goal difference on the final day of the 1992-93 season. That was despite Oldham seeming destined for the drop, with Palace entering the final week five points clear of the relegation zone. That situation is incomparable, however.
This season will register as Palace’s worst in the Premier League since promotion. Both in respect of their eventual points total — likely to be lower than the 41 accumulated in 2016-17 — and entertainment and enjoyment.
Relegation may be unlikely, but this season should act as a wake-up call for Palace’s decision-makers. Glasner must be provided with a squad that can compete more capably next year, or this situation threatens to repeat itself.
The outcome this time is yet to be determined, but if survival is achieved, without strengthening sufficiently, next time it may be even less likely to be favourable.
(Top photo: Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)
