Early season Statcast: Which hitters have been unlucky? Who should have more homers? And more

Good fantasy players live in a state of constant dread and worry.

The glass is always half empty. In fact, you shouldn’t even see the glass. You’re anticipating what can go wrong. Which slumping hitter can lose a job? Which closer is one more ill-timed bleeder away from being jettisoned to the 7th inning in blowouts? Which starter, two or three starts in, is surprisingly shaky and en route to being a dud?

In other words, good times!

But what advanced statistics have given us is not necessarily predictive information but perfectly descriptive data. We know exactly what players SHOULD be doing right now based on the quality of contact— for or against. And while the projection systems turn their nose at the descriptive in chasing the predictive, let me try to convey to you the wonder of it all. The fact that Statcast/Baseball Savant can do this for every player is just a miracle. And it allows for optimal roster management because now we know where we actually should be worrying and where bad surface stats are an illusion, because the foundational performance is just what we should have expected — or at least close enough. Horribly struggling players can now be fairly judged as having been: much better, basically what we expected… or even actually very good.

By the way, none of this radar technology is meant to discourage old-school approaches centered on strikeouts and walks (for both pitchers and hitters). But you shouldn’t need me for that. Just as a nod to tradition, before we get into the expected stats outliers, let’s review some early performers who stand out (for good and bad reasons) in simple BBs/Ks.

Worrisome Hitters (BB/Ks)

Non-Worrisome Hitters (BB/Ks)

Worrisome Pitchers (BB/Ks)

Michael King (11/15)
Tyler Glasnow (7/15)
Christian Javier (6/9)
Framber Valdez (6/10)

Non-Worrisome Pitchers (BB/Ks)

Garrett Crochet (1/21; he’s been great but just noting that he SHOULD be great)
Jared Jones (2/17)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3/15)
Bobby Miller (3/14)
Logan Webb (1/13)

We’re going to look at pitchers via Statcast next week. Let’s focus on hitters beyond walks and Ks (but obviously incorporating them) first with expected batting average and then expected homers. This is not meant to be a prediction going forward. It’s meant to reset your mind so that you’re worrying about the things that deserve concern and shrugging your shoulders at the things that do not because of bad luck.

Here’s a link to all the expected hitting stats through Sunday.

Let’s highlight the expected batting averages of the players who we should feel a lot better about than we do when looking at their actual stats:

Francisco Lindor should be hitting .252 (actual .083); not great but in the range of a hit or two below expectation, which is nothing.

Brandon Nimmo should be hitting .261 (actual .103); Jonathan India .400 (.242); Evan Carter .316 (.192); Yordan Álvarez .363 (.256). To be clear, this is with average luck, defense/positioning based on their contact quality and hit trajectory.

The Statcast Lord giveths and takeths away. So who are some hitters we’re loving a little too much because they’ve been lucky?

Anthony Volpe should be hitting .267 (actual .424); Brice Turang .252 (.360); JJ Bleday .209 (.282); Oneil Cruz .244 (.333); Tyler O’Neill .298 (.357); Elly De La Cruz .185 (.242). We’re not saying drop these guys. But don’t expect anything approaching their current success. And a lot of these players are fast and should over-perform expected batting average to some degree — just not by this much.

We’ve played barely any season but expected homers always interest me. The differences are small but meaningful.

On the plus side, Michael Conforto has earned four homers (we round up or down) not the three he’s hit. But the biggest loser is Bobby Witt, who should have four homers, not two. (This adjusts for parks, mostly — if a ball would be out of most parks where he hit it, it’s an expected homer.)

On the down side, Mookie Betts should have three homers, not five (still great, of course). Isaac Paredes should have one, not three.

Adjust your vibes accordingly. And I will see you here next week!

(Top photo: Sarah Stier/Getty Images, Jamie Squire/Getty Images, Rich Schultz/Getty Images)