Read the latest MLB Power Rankings from The Athletic MLB staff.
By Chad Jennings, Andy McCullough and Stephen J. Nesbitt
The eternal dilemma of April baseball is that while all these games count, they do not really matter. The return of baseball brings with it an added veneer of meaning: Surely, we tell ourselves every spring, a hot start foreshadows greatness and a cold spell forebodes doom. We tell ourselves this even though we know the past suggests otherwise.
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You do not need to look far for proof. The 2023 Texas Rangers were 4-4 on April 8. The 2022 Houston Astros were 6-8 on April 23. The 2021 Atlanta Braves were 9-12 on April 25. The 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers … OK, that season was pretty strange.
The point is that these games count in the standings, but so do all the games that follow. The story of the season takes months to unfold, so you shouldn’t draw too many conclusions from the first few weeks.
Then again: Where’s the fun in that? We waited all winter for baseball. Might as well overreact.
Here’s our latest ranking, with one overreaction for each club after the season’s first fortnight.
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1. Atlanta Braves
Record: 6-3Last Power Ranking: 1Early-season overreaction:
Atlanta’s National League East supremacy is in jeopardy.
The lineup is still terrifying. No question there. But Atlanta’s starting rotation looks so much weaker than it did two weeks ago. The elbow injury of Spencer Strider could sideline the budding ace for the rest of the season. His elder teammate, Max Fried, has been a mess in his first two outings. Fried could not finish the first inning in his season debut; for his second act, he gave up eight runs (seven earned) to Arizona. The offense should be enough to stave off the Phillies this season. But a romp to another division title looks unlikely. — Andy McCullough
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 9-4Last Power Ranking: 2Early-season overreaction:
Mookie Betts is going to have one of the most iconic seasons in baseball history.
The Baseball-Reference list of highest single-season position player WAR is basically Babe Ruth, a bunch of other dudes from 50 to 100 years ago, a handful of Barry Bonds years, and that 34-homer season by Cal Ripken Jr. But sneaking in there at No. 22 all-time is Mookie Betts in 2018. He, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper are the only active players to sniff the top 100, and Betts might outdo himself this year. Baseball-Reference already has him at 1.5 WAR (which is higher than half of MLB teams’ offensive WAR totals as of this writing). Add in the fact he moved to shortstop and is playing for one of the highest-profile teams we’ve seen in decades, this could truly be one of the most talked-about seasons of all time. — Chad Jennings
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3. New York Yankees
Record: 9-2Last Power Ranking: 4Early-season overreaction:
Anthony Volpe will be the American League’s starting shortstop at the All-Star Game.
Volpe put forth a competent but underwhelming rookie campaign in 2023, a season that demonstrated his maturity but left fans wondering if his bat would ever be dangerous enough to put him in the upper echelon of shortstops. He is off to a roaring start in his second season, flashing power, speed and patience. He’s been hitting in the back half of the lineup, but he may not stay in the shadows behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto for too much longer. — McCullough
Fantastic Mr. Fox 🦊@Volpe_Anthony. pic.twitter.com/a4ieL11kRj
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) April 9, 2024
4. Baltimore Orioles
Record: 5-4Last Power Ranking: 3Early-season overreaction:
Corbin Burnes won’t walk a batter until May.
Burnes aced his opening act as an Oriole. He struck out 11 across six innings of one-run baseball on Opening Day. In his second outing, he scattered nine hits but limited Kansas City to two runs. In both games, he avoided issuing a free pass. A dip in his command was part of what made Burnes a little more vulnerable in recent years, so his ability to pump strikes should bode well for Baltimore. — McCullough
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 5-6Last Power Ranking: 6Early-season overreaction:
The Tampa Bay bullpen ain’t what it used to be.
The strength of the Rays has so often revolved around its arms. The team tends to blur the lines between starters and relievers, so it was easy to miss last season that Tampa Bay’s bullpen was more ordinary than usual — 12th in ERA, 11th in FIP, 18th in strikeout rate. The group has struggled to start the season and the top trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam and Colin Poche all got whacked around last Friday. Then again, an early-season trip to Colorado is never good for any pitching staff. — McCullough
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6. Houston Astros
Record: 4-7Last Power Ranking: 5Early-season overreaction (take one):
The run is over, and Alex Bregman will be traded by the All-Star break!
Early-season overreaction (take two): The Astros refuse to go away because Ronel Blanco has arrived!
It’s been a weird start to the season. The Astros certainly expected to win more than four of their first 11 games, and they surely thought they’d get some of those wins on the strength of their offense. Instead, their first three wins were a no-hitter, a one-hitter, and a two-hitter — and two of those pitching gems belonged to 30-year-old Blanco, who threw the no-no last Monday and then followed with six one-hit innings against the Rangers on Sunday. We’ve literally never seen anything like it in the expansion era. Still, the Astros haven’t been great. They were swept by the Yankees on Opening Weekend, then lost two of three to the Rangers last weekend, renewing questions about their pitching depth and making Jose Abreu’s struggles even harder to ignore. Plenty of room to overreact in either direction at this point. — Jennings
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7. Texas Rangers
Record: 6-4Last Power Ranking: 11Early-season overreaction:
David Robertson’s going to reach 200 career saves this season.
Granted, Robertson doesn’t have a save opportunity yet this year, but a glaring Rangers weakness has been would-be closer José Leclerc. He finally saved a game on Saturday, but that was his first scoreless appearance of the year, and he had to pitch out of self-made trouble to get it. If Leclerc loses the ninth inning, 38-year-old Robertson would be the most obvious alternative, and he has been good enough to warrant a look. If he can take over the closer role, and the Rangers can keep winning, Robertson would have a shot at the 25 saves he needs to reach 200 for his career. — Jennings
8. Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 5-5Last Power Ranking: 9Early-season overreaction:
Trea Turner needs another standing ovation.
As Turner took flight late last year, he credited Philadelphia fans who rose up to salute him amid a months-long slump. He hasn’t reached that point yet — there’s a huge difference between a cold two weeks and a frigid four months — but Turner has not hit the ground running. He has demonstrated his ability to bounce back, though. Like the Phillies, who treaded water in the first couple of weeks, he should be just fine. — McCullough
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9. Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 4-7Last Power Ranking: 8Early-season overreaction:
The Diamondbacks are totally fine.
For this one, let’s try to be overly pragmatic. Obviously, the record isn’t great, but there’s little shame in being swept by the Braves (which happened to Arizona this weekend) and most of the D-Backs’ hitters have been at least fairly productive (Corbin Carroll is a notable exception and surely he’s going to hit eventually). There’s a massive divide, though, between the top of the D-Backs’ rotation (Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have been terrific) and the bottom (ERAs above 5.00 for Brandon Pfaadt, Tommy Henry, and Ryne Nelson). That problem should correct itself when the team finally gets to use offseason additions Jordan Montgomery (who’s building up in the minors) and Eduardo Rodriguez (who’s on the IL with a lat strain). That said, things got a little harder this weekend when an MRI revealed shortstop Geraldo Perdomo has a torn right meniscus. — Jennings
10. Seattle Mariners
Record: 4-7Last Power Ranking: 7Early-season overreaction:
The Mariners are paying the price for inadequately addressing their offense.
It’s maybe an overreaction to say that after less than two weeks, but the lack of offense is concerning. The Mariners are one of the lowest-scoring, highest-strikeout teams in baseball. Only the White Sox and Mets have a lower OPS. Little wonder the Mariners have yet to win a series.
Granted, the pitching has also been pretty bad, but the Mariners made changes at second base, third base, designated hitter, and both outfield corners this offseason. So far, Mitch Haniger is the only new guy hitting very much. Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco have struggled, as have holdovers Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford (who had a combined sub-.500 OPS through 10 games). You know who’s been awesome so far this season? Jarred Kelenic, Teoscar Hernández and Eugenio Suárez. Why can’t the Mariners get guys like that? — Jennings
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11. Chicago Cubs
Record: 6-4Last Power Ranking: 16Early-season overreaction: Shota Imanaga for Cy Young.
Oh, we could drool over the Cubs lineup, which has the league’s best OBP. We could hype up Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ or Dansby Swanson. We could praise the acquisitions of Cody Bellinger (again) and Michael Busch. But this Cubs season hinged on finding starting pitching. And they got the best one on the market. That’s right. Shota for Cy! Imanaga has yet to permit a run as a major leaguer. He has allowed just four baserunners across 10 innings, striking out 12. His splitter gets all the attention, but his low-90s mph four-seamer is eating up big leaguers like Shohei Ohtani. This also cannot be left unsaid: The Shota vibes are immaculate. — Stephen J. Nesbitt
All my homies love Shota Imanaga pic.twitter.com/uMYlPPiMFf
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 7, 2024
12. Minnesota Twins
Record: 3-5Last Power Ranking: 12Early-season overreaction:
The worst part of the 2023 Twins lineup, without the best.
So long as we’re extrapolating tiny samples, let’s consider the Twins as they square off against the Dodgers. Minnesota last year led the AL in homers (yay!) and strikeouts (whoops!). That all-or-nothing approach has been tweaked. Now it’s just nothing. Through their first seven games, the Twins had the fewest homers in the league (three) and the second-highest strikeout rate (26.7 percent). Carlos Correa and Alex Kirilloff are off to strong starts, yet we’re still waiting for a homer from them or Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, or Matt Wallner. — Nesbitt
13. Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 6-3Last Power Ranking: 15Early-season overreaction:
This is a lineup up there with the Braves and Dodgers, only faster.
Corbin Burnes may be gone and Devin Williams is out with an injury, but the Brewers have the golden right arms of Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea and some of the best bats in baseball. William Contreras and Christian Yelich are OPSing 1.000, Willy Adames and Oliver Dunn (??) are right behind, Jackson Chourio is more than holding his own against MLB pitching at 20 years old, and Brice Turang just stole another base. It ain’t exactly the days of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks, back when the Brewers were a perennial top-10 offense, but it’s giving opposing batteries an exhausting day at the office as Milwaukee hits and runs and runs and runs. — Nesbitt
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14. Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 5-6Last Power Ranking: 10Early-season overreaction:
Justin Turner will be the team’s best hitter.
The Blue Jays signed Turner, the 39-year-old professional hitting extraordinaire, as a complement to the team’s existing top trio of George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Turner supplied five extra-base hits with a .936 OPS in his first nine games for Toronto, at a time when Springer, Guerrero and Bichette all got off to slow starts and the Blue Jays ended the week in last place in the American League East. Turner may prove to be a bargain at $13 million. To reach the postseason, though, the Blue Jays will need more from their incumbents. — McCullough
15. Boston Red Sox
Record: 7-3Last Power Ranking: 21Early-season overreaction:
Tyler O’Neill will ease the pain of trading Mookie Betts.
O’Neill, the new right fielder for the Red Sox, hit five homers in his first nine games with Boston — the same number Betts produced in his outrageous 12-game start. O’Neill will surely cool off, but he did demonstrate why Boston bet on his upside in acquiring him from St. Louis this winter. O’Neill was a top prospect heading into 2019 and he hit 34 homers in 2021 before injuries derailed his career. So far, he looks like he’s getting back on track. — McCullough
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16. Cleveland Guardians
Record: 8-2Last Power Ranking: 18Early-season overreaction:
The Guardians are the “This is fine” meme.
Cleveland has one of the best records in baseball. They have the league’s best run differential. The pitching staff’s ERA (2.28) rivals Mariano Rivera’s career mark (2.21). The Guards are a spectacle so great that hundreds of thousands flocked to downtown Cleveland on Monday to see it. Or the sky. Whatever. All that, and yet the room is on fire. Shane Bieber has potentially thrown his last pitch for Cleveland, as he’ll undergo Tommy John surgery in the coming days. Gavin Williams had elbow soreness this spring, and among those joining him on the injured list are James Karinchak and Trevor Stephan. The Guardians are off to a great start, and the pitching staff could crumble at any minute. This is fine. — Nesbitt
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17. San Francisco Giants
Record: 4-7Last Power Ranking: 14Early-season overreaction:
The Giants are the most dramatic team in Opening Day history!
Sure, they’re off to an underwhelming start. Blake Snell had a rough start in his debut Monday, Mike Yastrzemski is not hitting and neither are Jung Hoo Lee or Matt Chapman, and even the mighty Logan Webb got knocked around by the Dodgers. This is not great for a team that seemed to have some momentum after some notable late-spring additions.
In the home opener, though, the Giants continued a rather bizarre franchise tradition with the 11th home-opener walk-off in the 66 seasons since the Giants relocated to San Francisco. They’ve walked off in 9.5 percent of their other home games and in more than 15 percent of their home openers. Decorative bunting and baseline introductions for every home game, we say. Prove us wrong, Giants! (Either that or start Jordan Hicks every night because that experiment is actually working.) — Jennings
T-18. San Diego Padres
Record: 6-7Last Power Ranking: 13Early-season overreaction:
The trade deadline fire sale will be more popular than the eclipse.
If we’re going to overreact to a sluggish start (Monday night’s wild comeback notwithstanding), let’s play it out to the logical conclusion. The Padres have been trying to go big for a few years now, and if it continues not to work, the biggest thing they could do would be to start over wherever they can. Xander Bogaerts is contractually bolted to the floor, but it would be fascinating to watch such an aggressive front office put all its effort toward ripping its roster apart. The Padres have an interesting mix of young big-league talent and guys with exceptionally long-term contracts. What could and would the Padres move if they were to commit to a total reset? — Jennings
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T-18. Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 9-2Last Power Ranking: 22Early-season overreaction:
Ke’Bryan Hayes was right.
At the tail end of a story this spring about the Pirates’ payroll and player-development issues, Hayes said, “I feel like this year, our division is up for grabs.” With Oneil Cruz back, he added, the Pirates had their sights set on being a playoff team. Look at them now. Sure, they were great last April, too, and have had some fortunate bounces fuel this hot start, but the Buccos are making real noise. Now, they’ve got to sustain it. There’s another level there if Mitch Keller rebounds and a couple of regulars — like Andrew McCutchen, Henry Davis and Jack Suwinski — get going. — Nesbitt
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20. Detroit Tigers
Record: 6-4Last Power Ranking: 19Early-season overreaction:
Tarik Skubal will be MLB’s best lefty starter this season.
Losing a weekend series to the A’s took some of the wind out of the Tigers’ sails, but it has not slowed the Skubal hype. After a stellar half-season in 2023, Skubal was projected to be one of the best lefties in the game this year, alongside the likes of Framber Valdez, Max Fried, Blake Snell, Justin Steele and Jesús Luzardo. The 27-year-old threw six scoreless on Opening Day and was scoreless into the fifth on Friday before a pair of homers marred his line. He won’t face the White Sox and A’s every time out, but with his command and stuff, he can snuff out any lineup. — Nesbitt
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21. St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 5-6Last Power Ranking: 17Early-season overreaction:
This team needed more than just pitching, pitching, pitching.
And even that isn’t going great. Even if Sonny Gray twirls a 65-pitch perfect game Tuesday, in his pitch-count-limited Cardinals debut, St. Louis has gotten disappointing results so far from its rotation — the primary area addressed this offseason. Yet the lineup, with a couple of contributors injured, has been equally concerning. As of Monday, the Cards had half their lineup fighting the Mendoza Line, were tied for the fewest homers in the NL (seven), and had been caught stealing more times (three) than they were successful (twice). This team’s in trouble. — Nesbitt
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22. Cincinnati Reds
Record: 6-4Last Power Ranking: 20Early-season overreaction:
Elly De La Cruz can’t stay at shortstop.
A bunch is going wrong in Cincinnati right now, so this slow start can’t be pinned solely on De La Cruz. But they gotta make a change. With Noelvi Marte suspended and Matt McLain injured, De La Cruz is the everyday shortstop, and the results have been rough: four errors, -2 Defensive Runs Saved, -4 Outs Above Average. Going with De La Cruz, Jonathan India and Will Benson up the middle is not ideal. (Then again, “ideal” went out the window for the shorthanded Reds a while ago.) Can Santiago Espinal still play short? If the Reds can move De La Cruz back to third or let him roam the outfield, his bat might just wake up, too. — Nesbitt
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23. Kansas City Royals
Record: 6-4Last Power Ranking: 25Early-season overreaction:
Brady Singer deserves the Cy Young Award over Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo.
Listen, it’s splitting hairs, but the topic on everyone’s mind after the first full week of the regular season is what my AL Cy Young Award ballot currently looks like, so here’s a sneak peek:
1. Brady Singer
2. Cole Ragans
3. Seth Lugo
4. Ronel Blanco
5. Marcus Stroman
The Royals are on a four-game winning streak as the Astros come to town. Through two starts apiece, the Opening Day starter Ragans has a 1.46 ERA, Lugo has a 0.71 ERA and Michael Wacha has a 2.25 ERA. Singer has a 0.68 ERA and 0.53 WHIP. Crown him. — Nesbitt
24. New York Mets
Record: 4-6Last Power Ranking: 23Early-season overreaction:
The Mets should be sellers again at the deadline.
After a spending spree by owner Steve Cohen heading into 2023, the team shocked the industry by pivoting to a teardown early in the summer, dealing away future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Could Pete Alonso meet a similar fate in 2024? The slugging first baseman will become a free agent after this season, and the team has gotten off to a laggard start. A revival from Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo would aid the team’s hopes, but the club still looks unlikely to make a serious postseason push. Will new president of baseball operations David Stearns ship Alonso out? Probably not — not when the club is expected to try to re-sign him this winter. — McCullough
25. Los Angeles Angels
Record: 6-4Last Power Ranking: 24Early-season overreaction:
Mike Trout is back, baby!
Check out the early AL leaders, and Trout is up there in home runs, slugging percentage and OPS. He’s also stolen a couple of bases and helped keep the Angels respectable through the first week and a half. It’s not all Trout, obviously. Reid Detmers has been awesome, Tyler Anderson shoved in his season debut, Carlos Estévez is 3-for-3 in save opportunities, and Logan O’Hoppe has really hit. Also, it’s not that the Angels are suddenly favorites to win the West — the team’s infield has been brutal, especially Anthony Rendon — but Trout is basically the last bit of star power they have left (barring a true Detmers breakout). He’s perhaps not back to his peak, but Trout’s healthy and plenty productive, and that’s a great thing for baseball. — Jennings
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26. Washington Nationals
Record: 4-6Last Power Ranking: 27Early-season overreaction:
Stephen Strasburg belongs in the Hall of Fame.
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OK, fine, we know he doesn’t meet the threshold for longevity. But the peak of Strasburg, who officially retired this weekend, was pretty darn good. From 2012 to 2019, when he played a vital role in Washington’s only World Series championship, Strasburg compiled 168 innings per season with a 128 ERA+ and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. A spate of injuries wrecked him soon after he signed a $245 million deal heading into 2020. Strasburg dealt with outrageous hype and tremendous pressure for the entirety of his career. And it ended up being a pretty good one. — McCullough
27. Oakland Athletics
Record: 3-7Last Power Ranking: 28Early-season overreaction:
Paul Blackburn will be the most popular trade chip at the deadline.
In the spirit of this exercise: The A’s won three of their first 10 games, and two of the wins came in starts by Blackburn, who has yet to allow an earned run. He has another year of remaining team control and should be an obvious trade chip come July — maybe even a really good one.
As for a true, it-really-happened overreaction: In the season’s opening week, the Athletics demoted Esteury Ruiz, a center fielder who had a negative bWAR, an 88 OPS+, and negative-17 defensive runs saved last season. The fan base’s organizational distrust, though, was such that the transaction reeked of conspiracy. Hard to give the A’s much benefit of the doubt these days. And given the way much of this lineup has hit (or not hit), Ruiz could be their leadoff hitter again by early May. — Jennings
28. Miami Marlins
Record: 1-10Last Power Ranking: 26Early-season overreaction:
Actually, it’s reasonable to be alarmed.
It is hard to envision a worse start to Peter Bendix’s tenure running the Marlins. Eury Pérez, the team’s 20-year phenom, underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery this week. Fellow pitcher Braxton Garrett is dealing with a shoulder injury. So is another potential member of the rotation, Edward Cabrera. And, oh, as an aside, the team lost its first nine games. Pitching was supposed to be a strength for Miami, but that unit has been decimated. Barring a resurgence soon, the club may be counting down the days before dealing Jesús Luzardo, who will be a hot commodity if he can stay healthy. — McCullough
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29. Colorado Rockies
Record: 3-8Last Power Ranking: 30Early-season overreaction:
It’s time for Ryan McMahon to make his first All-Star team.
McMahon has been a nice player for a while, a consistently league-average hitter good for 20-plus homers a season, but third base is pretty loaded at the moment. This year, though, McMahon has been as productive as any National League third baseman out of the gate, and he plays for a pretty bad team that’s going to need someone to represent it on the All-Star team. It’s looking tricky to sneak a Rockies pitcher onto an All-Star roster. Nolan Jones is off to a slow start, and Kris Bryant’s return to prominence still hasn’t happened. So, why not McMahon? It’s going to be a long year at Coors Field. Might as well send a Rockies mainstay to the Midsummer Classic. — Jennings
30. Chicago White Sox
Record: 1-9Last Power Ranking: 29Early-season overreaction:
Garrett Crochet is already looking like an ace.
When the baseball world awakened Monday morning, Crochet led all qualified major-league pitchers in innings pitched (18), strikeouts (21) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (21:1). OK, that last one’s not totally true — Corbin Burnes and Shota Imanaga haven’t issued any walks — but it shows up on the leaderboard that way. Three starts in, Crochet has dazzled, permitting one run apiece to the Tigers and Braves, and two to the Royals. He has an elite fastball from the left side and a slider that righties can’t touch. The White Sox are in for a long year. Their lineup was bad to begin with, and it’s even worse with Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez injured. But Crochet taking off could make the White Sox very watchable every fifth day this summer. — Nesbitt
(Top photo of the Red Sox: John McCoy /Getty Images)