Predictions and Odds for UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill highlights loaded fight card

UFC 300 is set to go down on Saturday and it is one of the best fight cards we’ve ever seen put together. It should be an absolute treat to witness.

Not only do we have multiple title fights, but we have the “BMF” belt on the line, as well as a completely stacked undercard from top to bottom.

I will be breaking down a few of my favorite matchups on the slate, but please let me know in the comment section below if you want to chat about any other fights on the card. And if you want full breakdowns for every fight on every slate, you can find that on EstablishTheRun.com, or follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley for more information.

Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill

Two top-level strikers will throw down on Saturday, as the current king of the light heavyweight division Alex Pereira will set his sights on the former champion Jamahal Hill.

If you want a bit more backstory, Hill actually never lost his title, and he was only forced to relinquish it after he suffered a torn Achilles last July. After intensive rehab, he’s back and ready to prove he’s the rightful champion.

Pereira, of course, made history in the middleweight division with his knockout over Israel Adesanya in 2022, which earned him his first championship in only his fourth bout in the UFC. The two shared a long history during their kickboxing careers, and we were fortunate enough to see a couple of tremendous finishes when they met in the Octagon as well.

The rematch ended with Pereira lying unconscious on the mat and it prompted his inevitable move up to light heavyweight. There, he defeated Jan Błachowicz to earn a shot at the belt, and he put away Jiří Procházka in November to claim his second UFC championship.

Pereira is a very dangerous striker and any time he’s given the ability to stand and trade, he’ll be a major threat. He’s deeply experienced, technical and powerful, which is a unique combination in the upper weight classes.

Meanwhile, Hill has never even attempted a takedown, so the presumption is that these two fighters are going to stay on the feet. Hill doesn’t have the same technical pedigree as Pereira, and I can understand why he’s being docked for that, but he does have some tools that may give Pereira trouble as well.

Most notably, Hill is willing to throw lots of volume, and he’s coming off a win in which he landed a whopping 232 significant strikes. His boxing may not be technically superb, but it’s decent, and his cardio, volume and durability have all been strong attributes to his game.

Unlike Pereira, who’s been badly hurt in kickboxing and in the UFC, and knocked out cold, we haven’t seen Hill hurt very often. He’s hittable, with a 47 percent striking defense, but he’s tough as well and has been able to fight through adversity.

Ultimately, this feels like a pretty high-variance situation.

There’s merit to backing Pereira as the better technical striker, who’s facing a hittable opponent, coming off a terrible injury only nine months ago. I could easily foresee an early knockout win for Pereira.

Hill has more volume upside, and I trust his striking to carry him into the latter rounds more than I do Pereira’s. Plus, Pereira hasn’t really proven capable of taking lots of damage, so a knockout win for Hill is very viable as well.

Hill also does have the grappling edge, if there is one. While he may not attempt takedowns, he is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and Pereira has a pretty considerable weakness on the ground. Should the two engage in any grappling exchanges, I think Hill could come out ahead and even finish the fight.

It makes sense that we have a competitive betting line here. Pereira is the favorite on BetMGM at -140, while Hill sits as the underdog at +115. I am not betting this fight.

If I have to make a pick, I am actually going to lean with Hill. I’m willing to take a flier that he’ll be healthy upon his return. If that’s the case, I trust him to land strikes at a higher rate than Pereira, take damage better and potentially have the superior cardio and grappling.

I don’t mind playing Pereira to win by TKO at +125, if that’s the fighter you believe will win. It certainly feels more likely that a victory for Pereira would come early, rather than by decision. If you’re on Hill, I would probably just take the plus-money on him to win, rather than try to guess the method.

Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway

A rare five-round, non-championship fight, Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway will have the honor of competing for the BMF belt on Saturday, in a matchup that honestly does not need any additional flair.

Gaethje and Holloway are two of the most exciting fighters in the history of the UFC, and the expectation is that they are going to war once that Octagon closes.

I have long been a fan of both. Gaethje is known for fighting at an absurd striking pace, taking far too much damage, but fighting through it and breaking his opponents. Holloway is the best volume striker of our generation, and he’s put up other-worldly numbers that I don’t expect to be broken any time soon.

Gaethje is the true lightweight though, and he’s been fighting at 155 pounds for his entire UFC career. Holloway is a traditional 145-pound fighter, and has only moved up to lightweight once before, when he lost to Dustin Poirier in 2019.

Because of that, and because Gaethje is a devastating striker with clear damaging potential, he’s a significant favorite this weekend. I’m not sure I agree though.

While I can respect the offensive prowess of Gaethje, Holloway has elite metrics and elite durability, which I think can clearly give him a path to victory in this matchup.

Holloway currently lands 7.17 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.75 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. He somehow was credited with 445 significant strikes in a win over Calvin Kattar in 2021 which is absurdly high. I love that his volume upside is basically unmatched.

Furthermore, Holloway has never been knocked out, let alone knocked down in his UFC career, which spans 29 fights.

Gaethje just isn’t as technical or defensively sound as Holloway. He’s still willing to put up volume, and he lands 7.35 significant strikes per minute, but he absorbs 7.50 per minute as well and has been hurt and/or TKO’d on several occasions.

Especially in terms of head strike defense, Holloway should have no problem jabbing at Gaethje, and I really would not be surprised to see him connect and potentially hurt Gaethje at some point.

Gaethje has always excelled with his leg kicks, and that’s been one major weapon for him in the past. That’s one tool he has that I do think can hurt Holloway, and I’ll be interested to see how often he chooses to attack with it.

Neither fighter really projects to wrestle much, and I am largely expecting these two to stay standing for the entirety of 25 minutes, or until someone goes down. For the most part, I think exchanges will be competitive.

Gaethje likely holds a power advantage, and the ability to throw damaging leg kicks. Holloway is surely more technical, more durable and has the ability to throw more volume. I tend to lean toward the latter being the better option to back in a five-round fight, but there’s still plenty of variance here.

On BetMGM, Gaethje is the favorite at -160, while Holloway is +130. There was actually a decent opportunity to invest in Holloway over the past couple of weeks, when his line was sitting north of +185 on some books. Money is coming in on him though and the betting line is trending closer to even, which makes sense to me. I would still prefer to back Holloway and taking a chance on him at underdog odds is still viable.

Betting either fighter to win by decision would be the prop I would lean toward. Gaethje at +250 to win by decision intrigues me because Holloway is so durable, and I think he can survive for a while. Holloway by decision at +275 is a decent flier as well, though I think he has knockout upside, too.

It’s another historic matchup that will be can’t-miss television.

Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano

One of my favorite matchups on the undercard, we’ll see devastating striker Jalin Turner square off against a dynamite submission grappler in Renato Moicano.

Turner is an intriguing prospect in the lightweight division, and although he’s stumbled a couple of times recently, there’s no doubt that his threat on the feet is enough to make him a future contender.

Turner has super long limbs and he’s willing to throw strikes at a pretty high rate, landing 6.02 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 4.63 per minute. He’s earned seven wins in the UFC, and all of them have come in Round 1 or Round 2.

Most recently, he knocked Bobby Green out cold in the first round, which was a super impressive result, and I think he’ll have potential to duplicate that against Moicano this weekend.

Moicano first made his run in the featherweight division, before the weight cut became too much and he was forced up to lightweight. In that run, he had dominant wins against Kattar, Cub Swanson and Jeremy Stephens. However, he was hurt badly on several occasions.

Even after moving up a division, Moicano has still run into chin troubles. He was knocked out in Round 1 by Rafael Fiziev and Rafael Dos Anjos hurt him multiple times as well. That durability is always going to be a question mark for me, and it gives merit to backing Turner for his KO upside.

However, despite the durability issues, Moicano is a very well-rounded and legitimate talent. His best skill set is his submission grappling, where he’s able to take the back of opponents and hunt for the rear-naked choke. He’s actually earned six wins by rear-naked choke in his 10 UFC victories, which is quite a lot.

Moicano isn’t necessarily an elite wrestler, but he’s a decent one, and he averages 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes. I also quite like Moicano’s stand-up game. He lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.80 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. He can kick well from the outside, and he’s relatively technical and defensively sound.

If it weren’t for durability issues, Moicano would fare far better in stand-up exchanges than his record shows. And that’s one reason why I think Moicano is being underrated by the betting markets. He is +185 to win on BetMGM, which is only 35 percent implied, and I think that’s a bit disrespectful.

Moicano is surely the superior grappler in this spot, and I think he has real potential to win the fight on the mat. Turner isn’t a terrible defensive wrestler, but he’s not a great one, defending at 75 percent. He’s been taken down four times by multiple opponents, including Mateusz Gamrot recently, and he doesn’t pass the eye test for me.

I did like that Turner tried to scramble up aggressively against Gamrot. That will be a useful skill for him moving forward. He’s also a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and competent on the mat.

He’s just not the most physical fighter and can be controlled. Even Dan Hooker had his back and had a deep rear-naked choke in at the end of the second round in 2023. Gamrot ended the fight in mount as well.

Turner isn’t an extreme liability but he can be taken down, and he can give up position. That’s dangerous against a fighter like Moicano, who’s a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.

On the feet I would favor Turner over an extended period and I would favor Turner’s durability of the two, but Turner doesn’t defend strikes particularly well. He’s actually credited with a 41 percent striking defense rate, which is pretty awful in comparison to Moicano’s 60 percent rate.

Turner has also been dropped multiple times in the UFC, including by Hooker, who teed off on him for three rounds. I wouldn’t say this matchup is completely one-sided in stand-up exchanges.

Ultimately, it comes down to the betting number. Picking Turner to win outright is fine. But I consider this fight much closer to even money than the betting line indicates, and I think Moicano has multiple paths to victory, which includes some domination upside on the ground. You can find Moicano at +200 at some books, and I think that’s a decent spot this week.

If I was playing Turner, I would lean into his KO prop at -135. I think that’s the most likely outcome for Turner in a victory.

(Photo of Alex Pereira: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)