It all comes down to this for Real Madrid.
After a thrilling 3-3 draw with Manchester City in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final at the Santiago Bernabeu, Carlo Ancelotti’s team travel to the Etihad Stadium with the last four in their sights. Win, and they will fancy their chances of adding to their record 14 titles in the competition; lose, and it will be a significant blow, even if they are on track to win La Liga this season for a 36th time.
So, will Eder Militao be back to bolster Madrid’s back line? Will Jude Bellingham silence those who questioned his performance in last week’s reverse fixture? Our Real Madrid writers Guillermo Rai and Mario Cortegana explore the key questions.
GO DEEPER
Has Jude Bellingham lost his magic touch? Real Madrid certainly aren't worried
Guillermo Rai: I’m at Madrid’s Barajas airport, waiting to fly to Manchester. Around 3,000 Real Madrid fans are expected to travel to support Ancelotti’s side at the Etihad.
Mario Cortegana: I had the same experience last year, for the semi-final second leg — but it’s probably best not to think about what happened next.
Advertisement
Aurelien Tchouameni will be travelling with the team, even though he won’t be able to play due to his suspension (he picked up his third yellow card of the competition in the first leg). Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba are staying in Madrid to continue recovering from injuries, despite wanting to support their team-mates in Manchester.
Tchouameni scored a long-range winner against Mallorca at the weekend, so how do you think his absence could affect things?
Rai: A lot more than we thought before Saturday’s game.
I thought Militao would be available against Mallorca after recovering from an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury (he had been out since last August), but he only came on in the 90th minute. I understand the Brazilian won’t be able to start against City with so little playing time since his return, which will impact Madrid in defensive transitions.
Unless there is a surprise, Ancelotti will be forced to turn to Nacho. The club captain produced a good performance in Mallorca and made a goal-saving intervention, but Ancelotti does not have much confidence in him.
Cortegana: Militao’s limited involvement surprised some, given Spanish media had reported he would start.
Club sources — who, like all those we are talking about here, will remain anonymous to protect relationships — have told me Militao will not start at the Etihad. It makes sense, given he doesn’t have the competitive rhythm for such a demanding match (his only other appearance since his return was another 90th-minute introduction, against Athletic Bilbao, last month).
Unless this is all a strategy to surprise City, this means the centre-back partnership will be Antonio Rudiger and Nacho, with Dani Carvajal and Ferland Mendy at right-back and left-back.
Rai: In last year’s semi-final second leg in Manchester, Ancelotti risked playing Eduardo Camavinga at left-back when the Frenchman was injured — that affected the team, because he wasn’t at 100 per cent. But Carvajal and Mendy are fully fit and played well in the first leg. What’s more, the last time City lost at home in the Champions League was in September 2018… when Mendy started in a 2-1 win for his then club Lyon.
GO DEEPER
'Small' mentality and a big noise: Why City feel unstoppable at home
Cortegana: Another thing Ancelotti got wrong in that 4-0 defeat last year was the centre-back pairing. Rudiger was in better form than Alaba but the Austrian started, alongside Militao. Rudiger has impressed in Madrid’s last two ties against City and has relished his battle with Erling Haaland. The Norwegian has failed to score in those three games, but it’s hard to see him being goalless after four matches of this importance.
Advertisement
Another key player in that sense will be goalkeeper Andriy Lunin.
He recovered from his early mistake in the first leg, when he let in Bernardo Silva’s second-minute free kick, but he’s not used to this kind of stage.
Rai: No changes are expected in midfield from the first leg — when Camavinga and Toni Kroos played holding roles in Madrid’s 4-4-2 system with Federico Valverde and Bellingham dropping back as wide midfielders when the team were defending.
City started with two deeper midfielders in Rodri and Mateo Kovacic, when usually they would set up with one. According to Ancelotti’s coaching staff, that meant Madrid weren’t totally overwhelmed between the lines.
GO DEEPER
Real Madrid 3-3 Manchester City: A tactical battle engulfed in chaos
They also enjoyed success in attack, with Rodrygo drifting out to the left, Vinicius Junior moving centrally and Bellingham acting as a playmaker. Expect that system to be repeated on Wednesday.
Cortegana: Rodrygo playing on the left was the big novelty from the first leg and I have a feeling Ancelotti will do the same again, because the various sources at Madrid’s Valdebebas training ground I’ve spoken to all highlighted what you mentioned: how satisfied they were with the first-leg approach.
Ancelotti asked his players to show courage and bravery before that game, and the Italian believes that resonated in the dressing room. Madrid went toe-to-toe with City, something that did not happen in last May’s debacle at the Etihad.
Rodrygo also appears to be in better form than Bellingham, even if those at the club are unconcerned about the Englishman’s performances.
Rai: There’s a quote from Ancelotti which sums up how Madrid see the Bellingham situation. When asked if the midfielder’s levels had dropped in the first leg of the quarter-final in the same way as happened with Paris Saint-Germain’s Kylian Mbappe or Haaland, he issued a warning.
Advertisement
“Calm down, calm down,” Ancelotti said. “It may be that in the first leg they didn’t play their best football, but now there are other games coming up… Be careful.”
Cortegana: Those at Valdebebas admit Bellingham is starring a little less compared to earlier in the season, but they are not worried and have emphasised how important his off-the-ball work was against City.
Wednesday’s game is exactly the kind he was signed for — a Champions League knockout tie, in his home country, against a team who were Madrid’s biggest rivals for his signature last summer.
Ancelotti came out of the first leg stronger. Despite City having some notable absentees, it’s not easy to surprise Pep Guardiola or play with that confidence against the reigning European champions. But the Etihad is an imposing venue and Madrid’s coach can’t afford to relax.
Another defeat like last year’s would cause Ancelotti a lot of harm, although I don’t think it would change the club’s plans for the future at all.
Rai: Ancelotti was brave in the first leg and the only thing you could criticise him for were his changes, which were arguably too conservative — he withdrew Rodrygo instead of Bellingham or Vinicius Jr, both of whom appeared to be more tired.
Another drubbing like last year’s is unthinkable but, as you say, this game will not decide Ancelotti’s future: Madrid are eight points ahead of Barcelona at the top of La Liga, and let’s not forget the Italian agreed a contract extension until 2026 in December.
Cortegana: As we have previously reported, those at the club say they plan for the medium and long term, without getting carried away by the immediacy of results.
La Liga has almost been sewn up and Ancelotti’s team also won the Supercopa de Espana (Spain’s equivalent of England’s Community Shield) in January, beating Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals and thrashing Barca in the final.
Rai: But beating City at the Etihad would be a big statement, given they have never won at that ground — there’s a first time for everything.
(Top photos: Getty Images)