HOUSTON — The Houston Astros are paying Josh Hader to close, but can’t create many chances to make it happen. He has appeared in two save situations across Houston’s first 20 games, forcing manager Joe Espada to find any spot for the sport’s second-highest-paid reliever to hone his craft.
Hader has pitched in three tie games, two more when his team trailed by a run and two others when the Astros were behind by at least two runs — already equaling the number of appearances he made in games the San Diego Padres trailed last season.
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Of greater concern after his first 10 Astros appearances: Hader has also matched the number of earned runs he allowed all of last year. His 8.31 ERA is a staggering statistic in an early season full of them: misery magnified by the massive five-year, $95 million contract Hader signed this winter.
Hader is far from the only problem plaguing the underperforming Astros. Whether to call him a problem at all is a matter of interpretation. Evaluating relievers by ERA at any point in the season is dangerous, but doing so after 10 outings is even more so. That Hader has a 2.90 FIP and .444 BABIP suggests some poor luck that an ERA won’t show. That Hader lowered his ERA by a full run with one clean inning on Wednesday reinforces the fickleness of small samples when assessing relievers.
The Atlanta Braves and Houston were tied at four when Hader entered Wednesday’s game in the ninth, a consequence of Ryan Pressly’s two-run eighth inning and an absence of clutch hitting for the seven innings that preceded it. The Astros have not handed their closer a save chance since April 7.
Josh Hader K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/bfuU6K2dtW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 17, 2024
“When you’re in different situations, the hitters are going to react differently in their at-bats. They’re big-league hitters. They have an approach. If they need to score two runs, one run, their approach is going to be different from when they’re up one or two runs,” Hader said before Wednesday’s game.
“That would probably be the only difference. My mentality going in is trying to get in, attack the zone and get outs. Maybe there’s a little bit different adrenaline rush between those outings, but overall my job still stays the same.”
Hader is paid to pitch regardless of scenario or score, but in the past, he has not hidden his preference to pitch only one inning. He required 15 pitches to punch out the side on Wednesday and — with a team off day on Thursday — conceivably could have returned for the 10th inning.
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Espada said he did not consider it. Instead, Seth Martinez threw his bullpen-leading 12th inning of the season and allowed the runner he inherited on second base to score. Only five relievers in the sport entered Wednesday with more innings thrown than Martinez, a 29-year-old still trying to find his footing as a full-time major leaguer.
“That’s his job: throw the ninth inning,” Espada said of Hader. “… Hader did his job.”
"When I was told to my face that [multiple innings] are not worth anything, it's about saves… that's where I was like, I'm not gonna blow my arm out if you're not gonna invest in me"
Josh Hader talks about why he's not going multiple innings anymore 👀🌶️ #Spicy #Padres… pic.twitter.com/eHSsioSDDf
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) February 8, 2024
Espada anointed Hader the team’s closer on the first day of spring training. Earlier this season, the skipper said Hader “has never expressed not wanting to pitch in certain situations,” adding “he’s ready to come in and help us any time, any inning for however many outs we need.” Hader, it should be noted, is one of only 18 relievers who has made at least 10 appearances this season.
It is not wise to overtax leverage relievers in April, but Houston’s 6-14 record may soon create urgency to change convention — perhaps even putting Hader in more mid-inning, leverage situations as opposed to clean save opportunities.
If Houston can’t create save opportunities for him, the club must find a way to extract more value from its best reliever. That Hader has a 3.47 career ERA in 125 career non-save situations should not matter. Young relievers like Martinez are in danger of being overworked and diminishing their effectiveness, again calling into question the rationale of not adding other established arms to a bullpen that lost 207 1/3 innings from last season.
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Hader split his 2022 season between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego and, still, appeared in just four games with his team facing a deficit. Last season, he threw just eight times with a tied score. He’s already done it three times across Houston’s first 20 games.
One of the four games Hader has thrown while trailing will skew his numbers for the foreseeable future. He entered Monday’s game against the Braves with Houston behind by a run. The first five Braves he saw reached base. Four of them hit singles, all against Hader’s sinker.
Hader secured only one out, surrendered four earned runs and, for only the third time in 358 major-league relief appearances, allowed at least four hits while failing to finish an inning.
“It sucks to get banged up for six hits in a row, but at the same time, you play this game long enough, s— is going to happen,” Hader said.
If Hader has any growing concern over his horrible start, he is a master of hiding it. He still rues his biggest mistake of the season — a hanging slider that Toronto Blue Jays utilityman Davis Schneider smacked for a go-ahead home run on April 2 — but is otherwise comfortable with the quality of an arsenal that’s appeared more hittable in April.
UN-BABE-LIEVABLE 👨🏻 pic.twitter.com/T9ZsOX1Oj7
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) April 3, 2024
“Those two outings, they probably weren’t the best, but one mistake out of an entire five outings is pretty damn good in my part of what I can control,” Hader said, referring to his outing against the Blue Jays and the one against Atlanta on Monday.
“I can’t control if I execute a pitch and a guy hits it. I can’t control if I make a mistake and he misses it. It’s just the way the game goes sometimes. For me, as long as I can show up, make sure I’m still doing the stuff I know I can do and have the confidence doing it, I feel like I’m in a good spot.”
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Opponents had nine hits against Hader in his first 7 2/3 innings. Seven of them came against his sinker, though four of those hits arrived in that aforementioned outing against the Braves on Monday. Another came courtesy of New York Yankees star Juan Soto, who hit a wonderfully executed sinker on the outer half for a go-ahead single on March 31. That Hader could not prevent Gleyber Torres from stealing second base beforehand loomed large.
“We can look back and say, ‘Do I hold the runners in the Yankees game a little bit better so he doesn’t steal second?’ Maybe. You can always look back and say there could’ve been things I could’ve done better, but I also had one stolen base on me pretty much my entire career,” said Hader, who had allowed 15 stolen bases in the seven seasons preceding this one.
“He just got me — timed me up and got me — and put himself in a really good position for a really good hitter to do his job.”
Hader is sitting at 95.6 mph — down slightly from the 96.1 mph he averaged last season, but nothing to cause alarm. Poor command hindered him in his appearance against Atlanta. The vertical release point on his sinker is about two inches higher than last season, too, perhaps contributing to the problem.
A flaw in his mechanics may be causing the inconsistency, but Hader surmised that the situation he entered also affected the Braves’ approach. Hader faced a lineup that didn’t need to slug to extend the game. They treated his arsenal accordingly.
“Two of those pitches were executed up and away, they just weren’t trying to do damage to it, right? They were trying to see the ball through, get it deep,” Hader said.
“I think maybe we could turn back and say maybe the location wasn’t the best, but if they miss it, we don’t say anything, right? I think we can always start spinning when things don’t go according to plan, but I don’t think the sinker is in a bad spot by any means to where I’m worried about it getting hit.”
(Photo of Josh Hader: Thomas Shea / USA Today)
