This week at dreaded Coors Field, the San Diego Padres will complete a fifth full turn through their rotation, a unit that led the majors in ERA last season before undergoing significant turnover. Here are four early takeaways on a new-look collection of starting pitchers.
Dylan Cease is the new No. 1
Dylan Cease came in tied at 23rd in The Athletic’s annual evaluator-driven ranking of the best starters in baseball, with one executive describing the spring-training acquisition as “the toughest guy to grade. He can be a No. 1 or a No. 5 depending on the grade.”
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In San Diego’s hierarchy, at least, there is little confusion: Cease has quickly emerged as the team’s No. 1 starter. His velocity has ticked back up after a noticeable dip in 2023, and he has thrown his first 99-plus mph fastballs since he was the runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award in 2022. Cease also has logged the five slowest pitches of his career; his sub-70 mph changeup has reminded Padres catcher Kyle Higashioka of his first encounter with the oddity when Higashioka was a member of the New York Yankees.
“We were all just like, ‘What the hell is that?’” Higashioka recalled. “It’s a nice pitch to have sometimes, because if somebody’s ready for 97, they’re definitely not ready for 68.”
As a worthy, right-handed replacement for 2023 Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, Cease certainly has kept opposing hitters off balance. He is both the Padres’ hardest-throwing starter since Dinelson Lamet and the rare practitioner of what Higashioka dubbed “the eephus change.”
There’s reason to worry about Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove
Yu Darvish is on the 15-day injured list with a neck ailment for the first time since 2014. It’s also his fifth IL trip since the Padres traded for him before the 2021 season — and those stints do not include a season-ending, elbow-related shutdown last September.
The Padres will hope Darvish, 37, returns refreshed. His average fastball velocity is its lowest in a decade, opponents have been hitting him harder than ever, and his other peripheral numbers are down across the board.
Back from an shoulder capsule injury that shortened his 2023 campaign, Joe Musgrove has exhibited red flags of his own. He’s yet to top 94 mph this season, and after his seven-inning, three-run outing against the Toronto Blue Jays, he remains among the bottom 6 percent of big-league pitchers in both expected ERA and expected batting average against.
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Musgrove can continue proving his health with more starts like Sunday’s. But just last fall, three prominent pitchers — Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Woodruff and Kyle Wright — underwent surgery to repair capsule tears. The Padres must hope Musgrove’s shoulder holds up over a long season.
Michael King has been hit-or-miss but promising overall
In his first start for the Padres, Michael King struggled to harness his crossfire delivery and issued a career-high seven walks — this after he issued three walks in 3 1/3 innings of relief in Seoul, South Korea. In his subsequent start, he threw seven shutout innings and issued only one walk. A five-inning, four-homer outing followed before King took a no-hit bid into the seventh.
So, is King a talented model of inconsistency, or is he on his way to becoming a reliable mid-rotation starter — or perhaps even better? Some scouts currently see him as more of a No. 4, citing what has been less-than-overpowering stuff; King’s fastball velocity is down from when he moved into the Yankees’ rotation last summer, and all six of the home runs he’s surrendered have come against his heater. Of course, the former reliever deserves time to prove himself, and he already has shown substantial promise.
The depth of the farm system is getting its first test
Darvish’s injury has brought the first test of the Padres’ starting-pitching depth: Saturday, prospect Randy Vásquez came up from Triple A, flashed plenty of intriguing stuff and predictably was a bit wild. Jhony Brito, who was acquired from the Yankees alongside King and Vásquez, followed with three innings of one-hit relief in his best appearance yet.
Both young pitchers could be asked to make more than a few starts by the end of the season. Neither should be expected to have pinpoint command, Vásquez in particular. While Darvish is sidelined, Vásquez will receive at least another start or two. Despite upper-90s velocity, Brito had surrendered consistent hard contact in most of his other appearances.
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With a 4.74 ERA through four outings, knuckleballer Matt Waldron has performed as you would expect from a No. 5 or 6 starter. He might end up going back and forth this season between San Diego and Triple-A El Paso.
Most of the organization’s best starting-pitching prospects reside at Double-A San Antonio. Robby Snelling, 20, has a 1.98 ERA through three starts — and seven walks in 13 2/3 innings. Ryan Bergert has issued only one walk in 12 2/3 innings, and after spending most of spring training in big-league camp, the 24-year-old could be relatively close to the majors. Adam Mazur, 23, has allowed only one run in 16 innings. The Padres believe he could be helpful this summer, maybe in a relief role.
(Top photo of Cease: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
