At least the Minnesota Twins can take comfort in knowing that when they hit what they’d thought was rock bottom, they were able to look down and see the Chicago White Sox staring up at them.
Sweeping a four-game series from an inept rival didn’t fix all that ails the Twins, but 11-13 sure feels a lot better than 7-13 and now at least the path to .500 and beyond doesn’t feel quite so daunting. Better yet, the Twins get to play the lowly White Sox, who are a league-worst 3-22, again next week.
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While we wait to see if the Twins beating up on the White Sox is a temporary reprieve or the start of a lasting turnaround, let’s open the mailbag for the first time this season and see what’s on your minds about a fourth-place team.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
We'll take it! #MNTwins | #MLB pic.twitter.com/RRqh1inygC
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 25, 2024
Of the three American League Central teams off to good starts, who poses the greatest threat to the Twins’ chances of repeating? — John L.
As we’ve seen, no one poses a greater threat to the Twins’ chances of repeating than the Twins themselves, but I’ll stick with how I had them ranked heading into the season:
1. Cleveland Guardians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
My outlook on the individual teams hasn’t changed a ton yet, but I think we’ve learned the AL Central as a whole is much stronger than last season and it will likely take more than the expected 85-ish wins to take the division. We’ve also learned the White Sox are considerably worse than even their most pessimistic projections, so they’ll help pad some win totals.
For whatever it’s worth, FanGraphs now projects the AL Central as basically a four-team race, giving the Guardians (31.0 percent), Twins (30.6), Royals (20.3) and Tigers (18.1) between an 18 and 31 percent chance of winning. On the eve of the season, the Twins (53.7 percent) were projected as the clear favorites, followed by the Guardians (21.4), Tigers (17.1) and Royals (7.5).
How many wins would the Twins need at the end of May to give them a shot of turning it around? — Allen H.
I’d say being above .500 as of June 1 would leave the Twins with a reasonable chance to win the division. And despite the awful start, it wouldn’t take much to have a winning record five weeks from now. At that point, they’d still have 105 games remaining.
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It’s easy to forget given how well they played in the second half last season, but the Twins limped into the All-Star break at 45-46. And that was in mid-July, with “only” 71 games left. They ended up winning the division by nine games.
Baseball seasons are really, really long. It takes a real effort to dig a hole so deep you can’t climb out, especially when you play the White Sox constantly.
Based on the poor start, how long before the Twins start jettisoning some of the struggling veterans who don’t fit in their long-term plans? — Rob C.
June 1 is a reasonable assessment point for this question, too.
Generally speaking, the Twins have been much quicker to make changes with slumping young players, who can simply be sent back to the minors for a reset. We’ve already watched them do it with Matt Wallner and Louie Varland. But a slumping veteran on a one-year deal can be trickier to handle, because making a change usually leads to a permanent parting of ways.
This front office has often been hesitant to do that, in part because they want to preserve maximum depth and in part because how teams treat a respected player at the end of their career can shape their league-wide reputation. It’s also just not smart for a front office to get in the habit of making permanent roster decisions based on the first month of a season, as tempting as that may be.
That said, when it’s a terrible start by a 38-year-old such as Carlos Santana, or even a 33-year-old like Kyle Farmer, it’s natural to question if it’s more than just a rough month. Santana hasn’t been an above-average hitter for a first baseman since 2019. Farmer’s value is largely tied to fielding flexibility, and the Twins no longer view him as a better backup shortstop option than Willi Castro.
Christian Vázquez is also off to a bad start, which is especially worrisome for a 33-year-old catcher coming off a dreadful 2023 season, but his situation is more complicated because he’s under contract for $10 million in 2025 as well. Even if the Twins were to eventually move on from Santana and Farmer, or fellow one-year piece Manuel Margot, they’d likely treat Vázquez differently.
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Is there a realistic chance that Cole Sands could be used in the rotation? And what is the process for that type of role change? — Kyle K.
I asked those same questions of both manager Rocco Baldelli and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey earlier this week, and they each indicated that Sands stretching back out as a starter could be a possibility if the rotation depth erodes much further. They’d like to avoid that, because Sands has looked great as a reliever so far this season, but the other starter options are limited.
Simeon Woods Richardson was No. 7 on the starter depth chart going into the season, but he’s already needed in the rotation thanks to Anthony DeSclafani’s elbow injury and Varland’s struggles. Inevitably, a No. 8 and No. 9 starter will be required, but Brent Headrick, Josh Winder and Matt Canterino are injured and David Festa could use more development time.
That’s why Sands could be a short-term solution. He came up through the minors as a starter and, unlike most relievers, Sands still uses a deep, five-pitch mix. He’s become a key bullpen piece, and it’s not certain the velocity gains he’s made as a max-effort reliever would remain as a starter, but Sands is the Twins’ most logical candidate for an in-season role change that can often prove tricky.
“We’ll definitely put all of those things on the table,” Falvey said. “He’s thrown the ball really well in the early going. He’s obviously had a multi-inning history for us at the big-league level and the minor leagues. We just want to make sure we do it thoughtfully, if we do it. It’s always hard to do while you’re midstream and you’re trying to compete at the same time. We’ll continue to assess that.”
Ideally, the Twins would like to see what this version of Sands is capable of as a full-time reliever throwing mid-90s fastballs and low-90s cutters. He has a 0.77 ERA and 16-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 2/3 innings so far. But these are the types of compromised decisions that stem from ownership dropping payroll by $30 million and the front office having to shop for bargain-bin starter depth.
Rocco Baldelli on Cole Sands starting to establish himself as a big league arm. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/S0iL8s3GxZ
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 21, 2024
Are the Twins planning to sign a journeyman starter to a minor-league deal for depth? — Justin H.
Falvey downplayed the need for that when I asked earlier this week, but I still think the Twins may have to look to add help from outside the organization if they lose any more rotation depth. Free-agent options are extremely lacking at this point, but even signing a Dallas Keuchel-caliber veteran like they did in the middle of last season would seemingly make sense.
Keuchel, incidentally, signed a minor-league contract with the Seattle Mariners shortly after Opening Day and the 36-year-old former Cy Young Award winner is pitching for Triple-A Tacoma.
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Will an MLB team bite the bullet and sign Trevor Bauer? — A.D.
I have no idea if Bauer will ever pitch in MLB again, but I can tell you it won’t be with the Twins.
How do you apportion blame for the Twins’ bad start among the manager, the front office and the owners? — Steven S.
If those are the only three choices — in other words, the actual players aren’t an option despite quantifiable struggles — I’d assign blame in this order:
1. Owners
2. Front office
3. Manager
And within those rankings, I’d have a large gap between each spot.
Baldelli can only work with the roster he’s provided by the front office, and the front office’s roster-building and decision-making options were severely limited by ownership cutting payroll by $30 million at the worst possible time.
What is your take on The Athletic’s survey of MLB front offices ranking the Twins in the top 10? — Michael K.
In case you missed it: The Athletic polled 40 executives from across MLB and asked them to vote on the best front offices.
Minnesota ranked tied for No. 8, which is sure to be met with eye rolls from fans frustrated by the Twins’ poor start. But on the most basic level, the Twins rank No. 10 in MLB in winning percentage since Falvey took over in 2017, and they’ve done that with a below-average payroll, so ranking No. 8 in overall reputation mostly fits the on-field results.
Based on my interactions with people in and around baseball, the Twins’ front office has a positive league-wide reputation. Falvey and right-hand man Thad Levine are both well-respected among their peers, and players generally speak well of their experience with the Twins. I have little doubt other teams would hire Falvey to run their front office if he were to become available.
One of the executives polled described Falvey as “one of the most exceptional leaders out there” and another said he’s “done a lot of hard work from a culture standpoint and it’s made a difference.”
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League-wide perspectives like The Athletic survey can be enlightening because few fan bases believe their front office is great and many or even most fan bases think their front office is bad. If you mostly pay attention to a single team, it can be difficult to see the forest through the trees, and it’s common for fans to wrongly assume their front office’s mistakes aren’t also being made elsewhere.
With how the Twins have performed so far after trimming payroll, would the Pohlads raise payroll next year to field a more competitive team? — Rand C.
That would be nice, but I’d be absolutely shocked.
Ownership slashed payroll by $30 million following a division-winning season and the Twins’ first playoff series victory in 20 years. It’s tough to imagine them reversing course and returning payroll to 2023 levels after a disappointing, non-playoff season, particularly when that would no doubt involve lower attendance than expected and other revenue shortfalls.
On some level, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Owners say they’re losing money, so they lower payroll. That weakens the team, which lowers fan interest and revenue. And then the whole cycle repeats itself, except this offseason the Twins would be attempting to secure a new local television contract coming off a year in which ratings and interest in their product declined. Good luck.
Winning cures everything, of course, and the Twins still have plenty of time to turn things around on the field. But off the field, cynicism is beyond warranted.
Why wouldn’t the Twins reveal how much their new one-year deal with Bally Sports North is worth? — Nathan G.
Only the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays open their financial books, and that’s because they’re forced to do so as part of publicly traded companies. MLB teams otherwise go out of their way to reveal as few financial details as possible. In fact, the specific monetary terms of the Twins’ previous long-term deal with Bally Sports North weren’t known until they were part of a court case last year.
Among other benefits, keeping the books closed allows MLB owners to avoid most risk of being fact-checked when claiming public estimates are overstating their revenues and profits. That in turn makes it easier to spend less on payroll without the same level of backlash that would exist if the numbers were widely available. That’s my theory, at least. Twins officials would say otherwise.
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When can we expect Emmanuel Rodriguez in St. Paul? — Andrew K.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, the No. 3 prospect in the Twins’ farm system, is off to a blistering start at Double-A Wichita, batting .294/.507/.686 with four homers, 11 total extra-base hits, 22 walks and nine steals in 16 games. That’s amazing production for any Double-A hitter, but especially impressive for a 21-year-old facing high-minors competition for the first time.
Emma Round-Tripper!
Emmanuel Rodriguez smacks his first home run of the 2024 season to put the Wind Surge ahead!
M3
Wind Surge: 2
Cardinals: 1 pic.twitter.com/UtPXm5nJTk— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) April 10, 2024
“You couldn’t ask for a much better start,” Falvey said. “He’s always had that ability to manage the strike zone and know the strike zone well, but then to hit for power. He’s just a really young kid with a lot of upside and a lot of tools and ability. That’s been fun to look down and see.”
Assuming he stays healthy and keeps playing well, I’d expect to see Rodriguez promoted to Triple-A St. Paul around midseason, but a 1.200 OPS can speed up timelines. One of my bold preseason predictions was that Rodriguez would make his Twins debut this season, but that’s seeming less and less bold lately.
(Rodriguez exited Wednesday’s game with an apparent hand or wrist injury, but there’s no word yet on his status.)
Do the Twins have any prospects or plans to add some contact and on-base hitters to the lineup? — Becky W.
This is precisely what Austin Martin can bring to the Twins’ lineup. We haven’t seen the full scope of the rookie’s on-base skills and speed yet — he had a .390 on-base percentage and 64 steals in 242 high-minors games — but he’s made a lot of solid contact and had some nice moments at the plate. Martin has helped diversify a lineup that can be too stylistically similar at times.
Will the Twins send down Martin whenever Carlos Correa returns or has he done enough to earn a spot? — Rich K.
Predicting roster moves more than a few days in advance is usually silly, because a lot can change, but Martin has shown enough that the Twins should want to see more. He’s held his own at the plate and already moved ahead of Margot as Baldelli’s preferred non-Byron Buxton center fielder, along with playing left field and second base. He can play. And they should let him.
(Photo of Ryan Jeffers and Cole Sands: Duane Burleson / Getty Images)
