Once a week for an hour, The Athletic’s Newcastle United subscribers get the opportunity to ask me for my views and insight into what’s happening at the club.
I have pulled together some of the questions and my answers from the third edition of our now weekly “Inside Newcastle” live Q&A.
Want to ask me a question? I’ll be back on Monday at 2pm BST for another session…
Adam N asked: Will the club have a bigger transfer budget this summer?
Chris Waugh: Theoretically, Newcastle will have a greater capacity to spend this summer, post-July 1, once the rolling three-year calculation for the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) knocks out the 2021-22 season. The expectation is Newcastle will be able to bring in players — primarily due to the positive uplift from the Adidas deal and other sponsorships, as well as the Champions League revenue — though there is an acceptance revenue must also be generated by player sales.
It is impossible to be precise on what Newcastle’s budget will be because it is determined by several variable factors which could change between now and the off-season — and even those inside the club do not know the specific figure. However, there will be wriggle room to spend.
Ben F: Why does Eddie Howe carry four senior keepers in his squad?
Waugh: It has been unusual for Newcastle to have four goalkeepers in their Premier League squad this season and, against Chelsea in November, they became the first top-flight side ever to name a quartet of shot-stoppers in their matchday 20.
The expectation is Loris Karius will depart when his contract expires this summer, while Martin Dubravka’s future is uncertain and the Slovakia international may push for first-team football elsewhere, especially if another goalkeeper arrives, with Newcastle in the market for one. With Nick Pope the established No 1 and set to resume his starting role once he regains full fitness following his recovery from shoulder surgery, that in theory leaves at least one goalkeeper space in the senior squad.
Mark Gillespie is a curious case. The 32-year-old is reportedly set to sign a one-year extension, despite having never made an appearance under Howe. Karius was partly signed initially as emergency cover for Pope, once Karl Darlow suffered an injury in September 2022, seemingly because Howe did not feel he could trust Gillespie to step up.
However, Gillespie, as a Geordie who was released from Newcastle’s academy, is viewed as a positive influence behind the scenes and someone who helps maintain the off-field culture. That seems to be the primary reason behind his extended stay, alongside the fact two other goalkeepers could depart.
Ethan A: Do you know anything about the links to Tosin Adarabioyo?
Waugh: Newcastle have tracked the Fulham defender long-term and held discussions about signing the 26-year-old when his side were still in the Championship.
Tosin has featured during preliminary internal meetings ahead of the summer, although how high up any list of potential targets the Englishman is remains unclear.
Like Bournemouth’s Lloyd Kelly, Tosin’s free-agent status makes him an attractive proposition heading into a summer during which Newcastle hope to strengthen several areas of their squad. Defenders are required, given Jamaal Lascelles and Sven Botman’s respective ACL injuries.
Adam C: If the FA decides not to extend Sandro Tonali’s ban, can he play in the post-season friendlies in Australia?
Waugh: Regardless of whether the FA extends Tonali’s ban — and Newcastle insiders remain hopeful it will not, or at least that any suspension will be backdated and run concurrently with his present one — it does not seem likely the Italy midfielder will play in Australia.
As The Athletic reported in December, Newcastle’s understanding is that Tonali is forbidden from playing in exhibition matches or friendlies, although he can take part in behind-closed-doors practice games. Both matches in Australia seem to fit into the former category, rather than the latter, so it seems that Newcastle supporters will not see Tonali in action again until the end of August, when his present suspension is due to conclude.
George C: What the heck is ‘anchoring’? And why is that good/bad news for Newcastle?
Waugh: Theoretically, the view inside the game is that it represents good news for Newcastle and their owners in the short-to-medium term. Those clubs with ambitions of being upwardly mobile can potentially benefit the most from a hard spending cap because the established elite will see their own expenditure curbed.
The way “anchoring”, which is used in some U.S. sports, would work is that each club would, on an annual basis, be able to spend up to a multiple of the broadcast revenue for the top-flight side who earned the least from the Premier League’s central distribution pot. That expenditure would include the player wage bill, agent fees and the amortisation of transfer fees — essentially the value of a signing, spread over the length of their contract (up to a maximum of five years). A multiple of 4.5 times and five times the broadcast revenue of the lowest earner have been proposed as possible figures to work towards.
According to Kieran Maguire, the football finance lecturer and host of the Price of Football podcast, both potential multiples would permit Newcastle’s capacity to increase their annual expenditure.
Much talk about new financial control measures based on total spend on player wages, amortisation & agent fees being a multiple of the broadcast revenue for the lowest TV earner in PL. If multiple is 4.5x then only 2 clubs would have to reduce spending & others *can* spend more pic.twitter.com/wIdqcVoV8j
— Kieran Maguire (@KieranMaguire) April 29, 2024
Newcastle are shackled by PSR, which prevented the club from bringing in any signings in January. The anchoring rules are not expected to be enforced until the 2025-26 campaign, when wider reforms of PSR will also come into play, meaning that Newcastle will still be constrained this summer.
In addition, the new PSR regulations will also continue to restrict Newcastle’s expenditure further than anchoring will, as they will still only be able to spend up to 85 per cent of their own revenue per season.
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The added complication from a Newcastle perspective relates to UEFA’s financial framework, which is different to the Premier League’s. With Newcastle hopeful of qualifying for European competition every season, they must also satisfy UEFA’s criteria which, by 2025-26, will insist that no club spends more than 70 per cent of their revenue on wages, amortised transfer costs and agent fees.
Unless UEFA’s regulations are relaxed, then Newcastle are still reliant upon rapidly increasing their revenue streams, through qualifying for the Champions League and by commercial tie-ups, before they really will be able to spend more freely.
Anchoring appears to be a positive change for Newcastle in the short-to-medium term, but it is not necessarily going to be transformative.
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Ali P: Are we expecting any returning players for Burnley? Is Nico Williams a target for the summer from Athletic Bilbao?
Waugh: Miguel Almiron has the best chance of returning as he is set to step up his recovery from injury. Kieran Trippier is not expected to be fit, having gone to Dubai for some fitness work, while Joelinton and Nick Pope are likely to require a bit longer before they can return, too.
Williams has been tracked long-term and he was viewed seriously as an alternative to Anthony Gordon in January 2023 but, going into this summer, I have not yet heard that he is featuring heavily in conversations. Given he primarily plays on the left wing, and Gordon and Harvey Barnes both operate there, I suspect other players/positions are likely being sought ahead of Williams.
John M: If Moises Caicedo is worth £115million, how much would a proven Premier League striker like Alexander Isak be worth?
Waugh: The Caicedo fee has certainly distorted valuations — as much of Chelsea’s business over the past two years has. There are some inside the club who laugh at suggestions made in sections of the media that figures of around £80million to £90million ($100m-$112m) could tempt Newcastle into selling Isak.
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Bruno Guimaraes’ release clause stands at £100m and Newcastle would not even begin to entertain offers for Isak, who they paid a club-record £60million for in August 2022, for anything less. Some at the club insist they would not countenance bids at any level yet, while the resolute desire may be to keep Isak, as Darren Eales, the CEO, admitted in January, every player has a price in a PSR world.
Isak’s would just happen to be astronomical, given his worth to Newcastle, his age (24), contractual status (it runs until 2028) and the difficulty, bordering upon impossibility, of finding an equivalent or better replacement.
Connor W: Surely Matt Targett is sold this summer… I don’t see him playing much.
Waugh: Targett has only played seven times this season, having been sidelined since November with hamstring and Achilles problems — although he was struggling for game-time regardless. Dan Burn is the first-choice left-back, while Lewis Hall was signed for the long term in that position last summer, and Trippier and Tino Livramento can also play there.
Yet Burn is likely to be required to play as a centre-half for the remainder of 2024, while Trippier’s long-term future is uncertain and Livramento is viewed as a right-back first and foremost. Given Hall is still only 19, he may require rotation in and out of the team even next season and, if Burn is needed at centre-half, then another left-back may be required.
If Targett is sold, then another left-back probably needs to be signed, unless a versatile defender like Kelly, who can play at full-back and centre-half, does arrive. Even then, what sort of fee can Newcastle realistically command for Targett, given he is 28, has had an injury-ravaged season and, even last year when he was fit, only started six Premier League games?
Kevin H: Could Burn’s form change Newcastle’s thinking about signing a centre-back? And how highly is Alex Murphy rated within the club?
Waugh: Burn’s form is being noted internally when it comes to recruitment and, should someone like Kelly join, who can also play left-back and centre-half, then such versatility may lessen the need to sign multiple centre-backs. As you say, that really would put increased pressure on the budget, which is already going to be stretched.
As for Murphy, the 19-year-old is viewed positively by Howe and the coaching staff, having trained on-off with the first team for much of the past 18 months. Injuries have contributed to his promotion to the bench, but when Howe turned to Murphy against Sheffield United at the weekend, he did so partly on merit, because there were alternative options.
There are reports Murphy may be close to a new contract and I do expect the Irishman to get opportunities to stake his claim during pre-season.
Peter A: Is a new sporting director expected to be announced before the end of the season? Once that’s announced would it make the talks around Dan Ashworth with Manchester United easier?
Waugh: Ideally, Newcastle would like a new sporting director in place before the summer because there is already a void with Ashworth on gardening leave, never mind when he finally does move to Old Trafford. While I think a new sporting director being appointed would speed up negotiations with Manchester United for Ashworth — and may avert arbitration proceedings — I do not believe Newcastle’s search for a successor is actively hampering discussions between the clubs.
As for potential candidates, Crystal Palace’s Dougie Freedman has made the final stages of the process, but he is not the only person in the running.
Liam M: What is the financial difference between getting knocked out of the Champions League in the group stage or Europa League/Conference League journeys?
Waugh: I wrote a detailed article on this once Newcastle exited the Champions League in December.
Essentially, the lesser competitions are worth significantly less to Newcastle, although the potential revenues they bring in, especially the Europa League, are not inconsequential. For a start, the additional matchdays, especially if Newcastle go deep into either competition, bring a significant uptick in revenue, even if the prize money is relatively small. Commercial deals tend to pay out more when a club is in Europe as well.
(Top photo: Alex Davidson/Getty Images)
