The Toronto Blue Jays had high expectations this season, and so far, they’ve fallen well short.
Rather than chasing a division title, the Blue Jays sit last in the American League East with a 16-20 record and are mired in a poor stretch. After losing 10-1 to the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday, the Blue Jays have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
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The front office put their faith in the core this offseason, expecting that a team with as much talent as theirs would prove 2023’s underwhelming showing, especially on offence, was an outlier and that the team would be better this season. So far, they’ve been worse. At the 36-game mark last year, the Blue Jays were 21-15.
We’re not yet a quarter of the way through the 162-game season, so there is time for Toronto to correct early-season issues and dig out of the hole. But it will be a challenge, and frankly, there have been worrying signs across the club.
Let’s examine some reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic about the slumping Blue Jays.
Reasons for optimism
For every season Bo Bichette has played in the majors, he has been an above-average hitter. So history tells us that the shortstop will find a way out of his early-season slump, in which he is slashing .189/.246/.268 with only one home run. Bichette’s strikeout rate is down from last season, and his walk rate is up, which are both positive signs. But he is not hitting the ball as hard this year, and his swing doesn’t look quite as in sync. But Bichette has been one of the best hitters in the game over the last two seasons and he’s worked his way out of slumps before, notably in 2022, when he had a .921 OPS in the second half after putting up a .720 OPS in the first half.
After his whirlwind debut last season — that included highs and lows — Davis Schneider looks like a legitimate major leaguer this season and is hitting himself into everyday playing time. Schneider is slashing .260/.367/.455. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello also recently shared that Schneider is among MLB’s leaders in barrels per swing. He’s consistently hitting the ball hard and swinging at pitches he can do damage on.
Barrels per swing leaders, min 100 swings
The Jays have a ton of problems right now, but Schneider looks like the real deal, and he's playing basically every day recentlyhttps://t.co/Fq5A9XyJ7i pic.twitter.com/KilHHUfEZf
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) May 6, 2024
Toronto’s starting rotation set a high bar last season, and they haven’t met that mark yet, but a bright spot has been Yusei Kikuchi, who is off to the best start of his career. He has a 2.72 ERA through seven starts and his expected ERA is 2.95, meaning there aren’t suspect underlying numbers. Kikuchi ranks among the top 20 AL pitchers in various meaningful categories such as ERA, FIP (2.31), strikeout rate (26.5 percent), walk rate (5.6 percent) and home runs per nine (0.45). It looks like it’s finally all coming together for the left-hander.
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The Blue Jays’ calculated investment in Justin Turner has paid immediate dividends. Despite being 39 years old, Turner remains a productive hitter — and for the first six weeks, he’s been one of their best hitters, co-leading the club (with Daulton Varsho) in RBIs with 16. Per FanGraphs, he’s already been worth nearly $4 million of the $13 million he’s being paid this year and is showing why the Blue Jays thought he was a bat worth adding.
Defence continues to be a point of strength for the Blue Jays. The club ranks fourth in the majors with 22 defensive runs saved, per Sports Info Solutions. The outfield continues to lead the way, with Varsho — who has split time between centre and left field — leading the team with 8 DRS, while Alejandro Kirk is off to a strong start behind the plate, with 5 DRS that ranks second among all qualified catchers.
Speaking of Varsho, the outfielder is off to a better start at the plate and looks like he is tapping into his power. Varsho leads the club with six home runs and four of those homers have come on four-seam fastballs, a pitch that Varsho is handling very well this year. MLB.com’s Alex Fast noted that Varsho leads the league in slugging percentage against four-seamers (.957) and is batting .348 against them. It’s a stark improvement from last season when he hit .224 against four-seamers with a .438 slugging percentage.
The Blue Jays haven’t had an easy schedule so far. They’ve already played the New York Yankees twice, the Los Angeles Dodgers and now they’re up against the best team in baseball, the Phillies. Toronto’s schedule doesn’t let up right away. They host the Minnesota Twins, who have turned their season around, this weekend and then play division opponents the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays. But beginning May 20, the Blue Jays have 10 consecutive games against the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers, which could be a pocket to pick up wins.
Reasons for pessimism
The offence hasn’t been good enough. The Blue Jays are 24th in batting average (.226), 21st in OPS (.667), 25th in home runs (30) and 27th in runs scored (129). Those numbers get worse when runners are in scoring position, with the Blue Jays hitting .194 in those situations, ranking 29th. The Blue Jays’ offence struggled for long periods last season, which led to the team re-examining their internal processes this offseason, yet they continue to be one of the lowest-scoring teams again. And, this season, the pitching hasn’t been as sharp leading to some lopsided scores. Toronto’s minus-46 run differential is the second-worst in the AL, and their 13-23 expected record suggests they’re lucky to have three more wins.
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There was hope that the career-low numbers that George Springer put up last season would prove to be an outlier — much like the offence as a whole — but so far this season, he has continued on a downward trajectory. He’s not hitting the ball as hard and his .579 OPS is third-lowest on the team, yet he continues to be their leadoff hitter. (The manager has moved Bichette down in the lineup, but thus far, Springer hasn’t budged.)
The Blue Jays were fortunate last season regarding pitcher injuries, with their four starters making at least 31 starts. But logic told us that the good fortune was bound to end and this season, the Blue Jays have had more issues with injuries. Kevin Gausman missed most of spring training, leading to an uncharacteristically slow start. Yariel Rodríguez and Bowden Francis are on the 15-day injured list, cutting into the team’s pitching depth. Another blow is top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, who is on the IL with ulnar nerve inflammation. Fortunately, he avoided a worse diagnosis, but the injury cuts into his precious development time and likely delays his MLB debut.
José Berríos entered Tuesday’s game leading qualified pitchers with a 1.44 ERA but under the surface, there were reasons to be skeptical about the sustainability of his performance. For one, he was striking out batters at a lower rate (18.3 percent) than his career average (23.1 percent). He’s allowed a lot of hard contact, too, with a 50.4 percent hard-hit rate, which ranked in the bottom four percent of MLB. His expected ERA of 4.93 told us he was outperforming his peripherals. On Tuesday, the Phillies tagged him for eight runs on seven hits — including two home runs — over 3 2/3 innings. It was his worst start of the year.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen combined 5.27 ERA ranks 30th. Outside of Yimi García, who has been battling a sore back for the past few days, the performance from a group that was a pillar of reliability last year has been disappointing. Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson and Génesis Cabrera, who all had sub-3.00 ERAs in 2023, have all been largely ineffective, which seriously limits who the manager can turn to late in games. The Blue Jays’ bullpen troubles are further magnified by their scoring woes. If they’re winning, the margins are often slim and the relievers don’t have much room for error.
The AL East is again shaping up to be a juggernaut and the Blue Jays have already dug themselves a hole. Toronto is 7 1/2 games back of the first-place Yankees (24-13) and Orioles (23-12). There is a lot of season left, but the way the Yankees and Orioles have played this season, it sure looks like they’ll be battling for the division. The Blue Jays are well back in the wild-card race — even behind the surprising 17-20 Oakland A’s — and will have to leapfrog six teams to chase down one of the three spots.
The Blue Jays have 126 games remaining, a lot of opportunity to turn things about. But as it stands now, the odds are not in their favour. FanGraphs puts Toronto’s playoff odds at 23.6 percent — the fourth-lowest among all AL teams. For comparison, the even more disappointing 12-23 Houston Astros have a 36.8 percent chance.
(Top photo of Davis Schneider: Matt Slocum / Associated Press)
