The Toronto Raptors lost sight of the reality of the NBA.
They believed in some very good players: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet. They added Scottie Barnes to that core, not a perfect basketball fit but a talent upgrade to help a team with no top-line star. That core produced a 48-win team in 2021-22. That year was part mirage, helped by COVID-19 policies that kept many talented opponents from crossing the border. The optimism was real and merited, though.
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They failed to concede that time bends for no team, not even one with a recent championship. Heading into the 2023 NBA trade deadline, when the Raptors were under .500, four of the team’s five starters were scheduled to become unrestricted free agents in the following 17 months. By paying them all, you risked dipping into the luxury tax for a team that was trending toward a first-round loss or, more likely, a worse fate. Let some of them walk, and the team that most relied on its starting lineup would have even less depth.
Naturally, the Raptors traded for another player set to become a free agent, Jakob Poeltl, giving up a future protected first-round pick (plus two second-rounders). We are through 15 of those 17 months, and only Poeltl and Gary Trent Jr., the two least accomplished of the quintet, are still Raptors. VanVleet left in free agency. The Raptors traded Anunoby in a creative move in December but moved Siakam from an unfavourable position a few weeks later. Trent could be gone as a free agent in July.
Sunday brought the final kick in the teeth, with the Raptors conveying that pick in the NBA Draft Lottery. They came in slotted sixth but also had a better than 50-50 chance of falling out of the top six, thus losing the pick to the San Antonio Spurs to complete the Poeltl trade. They were one of a handful of teams to slide as the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets both leaped up despite worse odds, giving the Spurs the Raptors’ pick, which wound up eighth. A shame: The eighth pick always pans out for the Raptors.
Given the possibility of giving up a similar pick in a better draft, losing the pick is not the worst-case scenario for the Raptors — more about that in a moment. It is a lesson to internalize, though. If you lose sight of time, the idea of sustainability blurs. You cannot afford to do that without being penalized for it, especially with a collective bargaining agreement that has become more punitive to teams that spend freely. Time and math are unforgiving foes.
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No matter how much the Raptors believed in the remnants of their championship team, there was no pausing those contracts. Extension discussions with VanVleet had already failed. At the time of the Poeltl trade, Siakam was still focussed on the possibility of earning supermax status, thus unwilling to sign an extension. The CBA meant Anunoby would have been selling himself short if he considered the richest extension the Raptors could offer him. Adding Poeltl almost definitionally required surrendering one of them or paying the tax.
What would the Raptors have had to do to make a compelling, sensible pitch to ownership to do the latter? Get to the conference finals at some point in the next two years? Siakam’s new team, the Indiana Pacers, is now two wins away from clearing that bar (hey, so are Anunoby’s Knicks!), so it wasn’t impossible to believe the Raptors could do the same. The odds weren’t good, though.
That ends today’s dwelling on the past. The Raptors might as well learn from their mistake, staying focused on the main thing: building around Barnes. Players do not remain patient forever, so the Raptors cannot forget about winning entirely. Still, he is just 23. There is a runway for discovery.
Sunday’s lottery is a relief in two ways. First, the Raptors now own all of their future first-round picks. As of draft night, they can trade any of those picks. Barring a star in his mid-20s becoming available, they should not do that. Crucially, it gives them an unobstructed view of the future. They won’t have to consider the possibility of surrendering their pick if they are having a disappointing season next year.
If they want to make an all-in play for high-end talent, they can consider trading Poelt to a contender with size issues and engaging in some light tanking next year. I would not advise it without seeing how the Raptors look to start next season, but we have already seen how low this team’s floor is. Given some poor injury luck, it is an option.
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With no incoming lottery pick, the possibility of creating meaningful space under the salary cap and targeting specific free agents this offseason is also in play. There are better summers to have that option than this one, but it is better to have the choice than not.
They could say goodbye to Trent and Bruce Brown and find a way to maximize fit, both in terms of age and playing style. Fair warning: It will be difficult for the Raptors to accomplish that while also improving their overall talent. Making the safe assumption that they give Barnes a contract extension and Quickley a new deal, this will be the last offseason they have this chance for a while.
No matter how shaky this draft looks at the top, a lottery pick or two will probably become All-Stars. Others will become useful starters and rotation pieces. Given where the Raptors are now, the chance to find such a player under team control would be more valuable than having Poeltl.
They still have lesser opportunities to find a player like that with the 19th and 31st picks. They also have relative financial flexibility they could use in free agency or trades. The Raptors are in an OK position. This time around, they just have to keep their eyes on the clock.
(Photo of Scottie Barnes: Kena Krutsinger/NBAE via Getty Images)
