The 16 teams who missed out in the playoffs have a little extra time to reflect on their 2023-24 season to identify what went wrong and how to move forward. And as the postseason rolls on, those 16 teams get a close-up view of what to strive toward.
There is no single path to contention in the NHL. But it helps to have a deep lineup stacked with elite skill (I know, thank you Captain Obvious). The Stanley Cup Checklist provides a guideline for where that elite skill is most important, with key elements every team should aim for.
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• Elite first-line center who’s among the very best players in the world
• Elite first-line winger to support the elite center
• Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines
• Top-line center to play behind the elite center
• Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six
• Elite No. 1 defenseman
• A second No. 1 defenseman to play behind him
• A top-pairing defenseman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2
• Another top-pairing caliber defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair
• A top-10 caliber starting goaltender
The data on the checklist is based on every champion from the 2010 Chicago Blackhawks to the 2023 Vegas Golden Knights, with an average value per position and a range of one standard deviation in each direction. Two values are provided: a player’s projected Game Score Value Added which includes three years of data, weighed for recency and adjusted for age; and actual GSVA, which is purely based on this past season on a per-82 game basis.
A team doesn’t need to check every box — sometimes areas of strength in one direction can help make up for another — but the more high-end talent they have, the more potential a team tends to have.
This is far from the only way to analyze teams — it doesn’t account for a team’s depth or playing style, among other things. But it provides a look at how rosters as currently constructed measure up to past champions, which helps pinpoint areas of strength and weaknesses that should be built on this summer (and beyond).
Cup Checklist Legend
Red X: Falls below the range entirely
Grey checkmark: Passable, but below the average champion
Black checkmark: Above average relative to the average Cup winner
Gold checkmark: Exceeds the range entirely
St. Louis Blues
The Blues simply aren’t playoff caliber just yet. The goaltending did the most to help St. Louis get there this year, but it’s clear this team is lacking everywhere else. Defense is a red flag with few checkmarks in sight, but contract clauses aren’t making life any easier for management to upgrade that. Up front, there are obvious holes as well. Just adding another high-end forward would knock most players into more appropriate roles. But the more likely solution at this point may be trading someone like Pavel Buchnevich for a haul to make things worse before they can get better.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild have more pieces than most teams who missed the postseason in the West. A healthy Jared Spurgeon next year will be a game-changer and ideally help elevate Jacob Middleton’s game after he completely trailed off without his mainstay partner. Jonas Brodin was fantastic this year, and Brock Faber should be even better with another year of seasoning.
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But Minnesota needs more consistency from its stars to open the year and could use some scoring depth to support them so the team isn’t as reliant on Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy to do the most every night. Goaltending is the biggest can of worms after Filip Gustavsson failed to match his breakout year, leaving management with offseason questions on the best path forward.
Calgary Flames
The 2023-24 Flames finished the season pretty differently from how they started after making subtractions throughout the year. Without Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov, there are more openings on the blue line. The question now is who will fill them next year — could Nikita Okhotyuk or another young gun own a lineup spot? There’s room for it.
Without Elias Lindholm, Nazem Kadri moves up the depth chart. He had a better year than expected, as did Blake Coleman. But most other forwards have fallen shy of their projected value — especially at the top of the lineup with Jonathan Huberdeau. The Flames need a spark up front, and maybe there is a way to help bolster that if another key player ends up on the move this summer. Jacob Markstrom’s status is the ultimate question mark, and his absence would cause the biggest ripple effect on this roster considering his impact this year.
Seattle Kraken
It’s not entirely surprising to see a lot of grey on Seattle’s checklist considering its balanced approach. But there is one noticeable “X” at the top of the lineup in Matty Beniers. Despite showing defensive promise, Beniers didn’t bring the heat offensively, which is why his actual value falls short of projections. There’s still star potential here, and there could be even more depending on whether Shane Wright becomes a lineup regular. Wright’s actual value is a huge standout here, but the checklist overemphasizes the few NHL games he’s played. His projected value, on the other hand, is a bit of an underestimate.
The Kraken haven’t had the splashiest approach over the last few years, but adding a bit more oomph to the lineup and a new coach could be what this team needs to kick it up a notch.
Arizona Coyotes/Utah
(Bear with us during this awkward transitional period in team names)
Forget the Utah move and new ownership for a second. If you saw this graphic a few months ago, there would be some concern about whether the Coyotes will ever stop spinning their wheels and get the necessary investment to push forward. With new ownership, that finally isn’t the case.
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We’ll see if management gets the green light to go full Golden Knights this summer and really get aggressive on the trade market and in free agency. There certainly is room for it, especially on defense. But even with some tweaks, there is potential in Utah around Clayton Keller and the young core.
Utah probably isn’t a contender in a year, but the help it needs is coming into place.
Anaheim Ducks
On the surface, this is a daunting checklist. But we can see the vision in Anaheim. Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger gave glimpses this year of what the Ducks can become. Troy Terry did, too, after a strong second half of the season. And there will be even more young guns ready to add a spark depending on who makes the team, from Cutter Gauthier to the Ducks’ 2024 draft pick.
Lukas Dostal had the better numbers this year, while John Gibson has the experience to back him up and boost his projected value. The better the team gets in front of the blue paint, the better its goalies should be thanks to that much-needed support.
There are obvious flaws on both ends of the ice in Anaheim. But the Ducks just need some time to cook as they put together the building blocks to a long window of contention.
Chicago Blackhawks
With the 2023 No. 1 pick, the Blackhawks found their franchise cornerstone in Connor Bedard to build around. But like the Ducks, this is a marathon process that will take time.
Chicago has their star in Bedard — he’s their franchise cornerstone who will highlight the Blackhawks for years to come. And they’re starting to get those key ingredients around him. Alex Vlasic progressed a ton this year into a legit top-four defenseman despite taking on an incredibly challenging workload. Frank Nazar could be another bright spot next year.
But a rebuild is a long process and Chicago has a ways to go. For now, there are veterans to help support their up-and-comers — like Nick Foligno and Jason Dickinson, who earned some Selke attention this year, and Taylor Hall, who struggled with poor injury luck. Some have slotted higher than they should, but that’s how it goes on a rebuilding team until young talent is ready for more meaningful minutes.
San Jose Sharks
We normally wouldn’t put an undrafted player on this list. But with the No. 1 pick, Macklin Celebrini is a slam dunk to join the Sharks. Similar to the Blackhawks with Bedard, Celebrini is a franchise cornerstone who will check off that elite center slot for years to come.
That’s pretty much where the positives stop. There is no way to spin their defense as anything other than a disaster. The forward group is somewhat up in the air with a handful of pending free agents. Back in goal, the Sharks have a few stopgaps if their young netminders aren’t ready, at least.
For the most part, the Sharks core is undefined. Unlike Chicago and Anaheim, the checklist doesn’t depict too much for them yet. The pieces aren’t in place just yet, but maybe the vision is finally starting to come together.
— Data via Dom Luszczyszyn, Evolving-Hockey and CapFriendly. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo of Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov: Christopher Mast / NHLI via Getty Images)
