The two top seeds in the NBA Playoffs each head into their Game 5s at home and with momentum. But one of those series has reached a potential clinching game, while the other is tied and could easily tip in either direction.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are on the brink, playing for survival with two of their key stars sidelined with injuries. The Boston Celtics were wobbly for some of Game 4, but the top seed in the East is looking more like chalk than ever heading into Game 5 at TD Garden.
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In the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder responded and evened up the series with the Dallas Mavericks, whose stars are struggling to deliver. Can Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić find a way to go up 3-2 before heading back home?
We have odds, staff picks and previews for both of Wednesday’s NBA Playoff games.
All odds from BetMGM. Find the best deals on StubHub for tickets.
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers at No. 1 Boston Celtics
How to watch: 7 p.m. ET on TNT
Boston leads series 3-1
Boston looks like it’s following a familiar pattern: Go 1-1 in the first two games at home and then cruise to a victory in five. But Game 4 started with the Cavs looking hot. Cleveland hung around, and covered the spread, in the 109-102 loss, but now the Cavs’ odds to win the series have ballooned from +1600 (long) to +10000 (…extremely long).
This Cavs team really has some stubbornness and looked determined — or desperate — to win. Without two key starters in Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland stepped up, getting 30 points in Game 4 after averaging 14.7 per game in the rest of this postseason. Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Caris LeVert also put up double figures. In the first half, it looked like they had the Celtics off-balance. Boston had 10 turnovers before halftime, and Cleveland took a brief lead in the third quarter.
But it wasn’t enough to stop the Celtics’ roll. They found their balance with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White finding ways to force Garland into tough shots. Boston also beat the Cavs on the boards with a 48-32 rebounding edge.
If anyone was questioning whether Boston could right the ship after their blowout Game 2 loss, that question has been snuffed out. The series odds on BetMGM don’t even include Boston anymore, so sure is the market that they’ll clinch this one and head on to the Eastern Conference Finals.
We may have seen the last big effort that this Cavs team can give in the series, especially without Mitchell and Allen. Mitchell is not expected to play in Game 5.
Cavaliers All-Star Donovan Mitchell is expected to miss tonight's potential elimination Game 5 vs. Boston, sources tell me and @joevardon. Mitchell is dealing with a calf strain. pic.twitter.com/mdp5As2FVI
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 15, 2024
Expert picks for Cavs at Celtics
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No. 5 Dallas Mavericks at No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder
How to watch: 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Series odds: Thunder -155, Mavericks +130
Series tied 2-2
Another star-proving night for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And just a weird one for Dallas. And now the series odds have swapped. Going into Game 4, the Mavs were -225 to win the series, with the Thunder at +180. Now it’s OKC favored to win it at -155 odds. But honestly, I might take those odds.
If you turned this game off at halftime, you probably thought Dallas had it in the bag. The Mavs were cruising off two wins in Games 2 and 3 and were up 11 at the half after controlling the first two quarters. They limited the Thunder to 104.2 points per 100 possessions, which, as The Athletic’s Tim Cato highlights, is far below the league average.
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But Oklahoma City ultimately won this game on the defensive end, with a strategy that included exploiting a terrible no-good shooting night from the free-throw line for Dallas. OKC made 23 of 24 and Dallas made just 12 of 23.
The Thunder were able to contain the Mavericks’ offensive powerhouse, made up of Dončić and Irving, who couldn’t keep up with the offensive efficiency of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA had 34 points on 14-of-27 shooting and became the second player in the past five years to hit 10 mid-range jumpers in the postseason.
Dončić has been playing through injury and managed to put up a triple-double despite clearly pushing through discomfort. But he had just 18 points on 6-of-20 shooting, which was the second-lowest score he’s ever had in a postseason. He had seven turnovers, while Irving was better at creating shots but had just 9 points in 11 shots. P.J. Washington has been the clutch factor in this series for Dallas, as its stars have struggled, averaging 25.7 points over the last three games.
The thing about this matchup is that Dallas looks like it should be winning, with more contributions from its role players than OKC is getting. But the question here is whether its stars can show up. With the next game on the road and lingering injuries still a big question mark for the Mavs, the Thunder may have the edge for now.
Expert picks for Mavs at Thunder
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(Photo of Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Tim Heitman / Getty Images)
