Whatever happens on the final day, Arsenal can be proud of their season.
They have recorded the most wins in a single Premier League campaign (27), gone unbeaten against all the ‘Big Six’ sides and set themselves apart as one of the league’s most consistent performers in attack and defence.
They have shown they belong in title races with Manchester City.
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Each of their most recent title races (2007-08, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2015-16) were followed by battles for a spot in the top four. This season not only backed up their title challenge of last year but improved on it — a theme consistent with Arsenal for the past three seasons.
It will be an incredible achievement if they win the Premier League at the weekend, but their trajectory provides perspective even if they do not. After successive eighth-place finishes in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, Arsenal gathered momentum in 2021-22.
| Season | Position | Points |
|---|---|---|
2019-20 | 8th | 56 |
2020-21 | 8th | 61 |
2021-22 | 5th | 69 |
2022-23 | 2nd | 84 |
2023-24 | 2nd* | 86* |
* with one match to play
Two seasons ago, Mikel Arteta had recruited most of what is now the foundation of his squad and were in the hunt for Champions League qualification for the first time since 2017. They fell short, finishing fifth, but they improved through a mix of introspection and recruitment.
They started the 2022-23 campaign hoping to seal a place in the top four, but that objective was soon upgraded to a chase for the title after an exceptional start (they lost just once in the Premier League up to February, but then lost five times in their remaining 19 games). Once again, they did not meet the end goal, but self-reflection and recruitment were key to allow the objective, and reality, of this season to be another title race.
Arsenal have improved year-on-year but this season has not been perfect. Arteta and his players know there is room for improvement, with the winter trip to Dubai allowing the squad time and space to work on smaller details, which has helped them in the second half of the season.
In previous years, that type of growth could be seen in the change in their ability to sample the ‘mood’ of a game and change its direction, or, as Arteta calls it, how they “live the game”. Naivety and inexperience undid Arsenal in the 2021-22 season but control has since become second nature to a side who so often find a way to sap an opposition’s energy. For a change from last season to this, Arteta seems to have been more willing to have different ways of setting up, which has given Arsenal more ways of getting results.
The Community Shield was the first example of this, with Declan Rice used as an aggressive No 8 to help Arsenal’s press before he was used as a No 6 for the start of the league campaign. The use of Kai Havertz and Leandro Trossard as dove-tailing forwards, which coincided with Arsenal’s flurry of goals in 2024, is another example.
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With Gabriel Jesus injured in February, Arteta said: “It’s a great opportunity to adapt players in certain positions, roles and spaces and see how they react. They are so willing and sometimes that gives you a different solution that you didn’t think about. When you have players that are willing to change that, only good things happen.”
Aside from Arsenal cutting out unforced errors, Arteta can still use his squad more carefully to ensure players can make an impact when called upon. The transfer market will also be there to make further gains, as was the case with the six players under 23 signed in 2021, Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko in 2022, and Rice and Havertz in 2023.
Rather than there being a sense of these last two title races being Arsenal’s only shot, a lot of factors create a feeling of ‘when’ rather than ‘if”. Arsenal are not only closer to Manchester City from a points perspective — two going into the final day compared to five at the end of last season — but also in regards to being truly competitive and dominant in their league matches.
As well as keeping 11 clean sheets in 2024, they have only been behind in a game for 15 minutes since New Year’s Eve (after conceding in the 84th minute against Aston Villa, which ended after nine added minutes).
The competitiveness that has been on display from August through to May is the benchmark. Even if success does not come this year, or even next year, the important thing is that the ingredients are there. What determines who crosses the line first often comes down to who has that extra spark in the vital moments, but being there (in a title race in April/May) is more than half the battle.
Last April, their momentum was halted with three successive draws against Liverpool, West Ham and Southampton before losing to City. April 2022 also cost them, with three straight losses to Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton giving them a mountain to climb for Champions League qualification. This time, they stumbled with a 2-0 loss against Villa but responded by winning every league game since.
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Another key is belief and Arsenal have that. It can be generated by moments like the Community Shield win over City and more consistent signs like their progress over the past three seasons. Unlike many teams in the Premier League, that belief that they can compete until the end of the title race will be built on both moments and consistency when next season starts, which is a much better starting point than most.
Although wider dialogue may focus on the black-and-white view of winning and falling short, there are more factors to consider when assessing Arsenal’s trajectory — even if one outcome would be preferred. The important thing before this weekend is that the Premier League title is still possible. If they do not achieve it, there will be disappointment, but that should not fester long enough to take away from where this team are going.
This group has grown together and will continue to do so, with many on long-term contracts. They will be back competing and putting themselves in a position to take advantage of any slip-ups others may make.
For more perspective, Arsenal’s loss to Leeds United towards the end of the 2002-03 season is remembered as a shocking gut punch to their title ambitions that year. Earlier in the season, Arsene Wenger said: “It’s not impossible to go through the season unbeaten and I can’t see why it’s shocking to say that.” He was mocked, but Arsenal went on to do it the following year.
Nobody is talking about invincibility with this Arsenal side but they have the tools to keep competing, even if this campaign ends in disappointment.
(Top photo: Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)
