With the NFL schedule officially released Wednesday night, it’s time to simulate the entire season using my NFL Projection Model. The model forecasts the quality of each team and then simulates each game of the regular season and playoffs until a Super Bowl champion emerges.
That process is repeated 100,000 times to provide a realistic measure of how likely a team is to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. It is important to note we are still months away from the start of the NFL season and things are likely to change. Check out our interactive graphic to see how it looks right now:
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The Big 5
A collection of five teams wins the Super Bowl in more than 50 percent of my model’s simulations: the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. Yes, that means the Buffalo Bills are not among the most likely Super Bowl winners, but they’re not too far off in sixth place and just 3 percentage points lower than the Cowboys. Though I believe that number to be too low, the Bills do have one of the five toughest schedules, according to my model.
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The AFC gantlet
After the Chiefs and Ravens, eight teams have between a 43.3 percent and 65.3 percent chance of making the playoffs in the AFC. For comparison, the NFC only has six teams with a better than 67.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. There are only seven playoff spots in the AFC, and some very good teams are going to get left out, but that’s just reality when nine of the 14 best teams in the NFL are in one conference.
Rookie QB doom
Five rookie quarterbacks could be starting games during this upcoming NFL season, and none of those teams is projected to have a better than 25 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Chicago Bears, led by No. 1 pick Caleb Williams lead the way at 25 percent, and the Vikings (J.J. McCarthy) aren’t too far behind at 20.9 percent. None of the Patriots (Drake Maye), Broncos (Bo Nix), or Commanders (Jayden Daniels) is projected to have a better than 7.5 percent chance of making the postseason.
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Surprise contenders?
The Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers are a bit of a surprise with how high they sit as potential playoff teams, but each has a top-five easiest schedule, according to my model. Both teams should also see a significant upgrade at the quarterback position compared with last year. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins, who is a borderline top-10 quarterback in the NFL, and the Chargers are welcoming back Justin Herbert after an injury-riddled season and now have Jim Harbaugh taking over as coach.
Surprise non-contenders?
The Houston Texans are a little low for my liking, but it’s more the fact they are about to face a top-10 toughest schedule. Last year, the Texans played a last-place schedule; this year they’ll play a first-place schedule. That’s going to limit their ceiling heading into 2024.
The Los Angeles Rams are another team that might seem a little low, but I don’t have a problem with their placement here. On offense, I think they’ll be fine. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford with all those assets should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard. But a new defensive coordinator paired with a young unit and no Aaron Donald seems like a lot to overcome.
(Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
