Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 38 mailbag: Best captains, how to beat Haaland and where the goals will be

What are the burning issues before the final gameweek of the 2023-24 Fantasy Premier League season? To find that out, we asked you.

Nearly 11 million players bring the curtain down on their seasons in Gameweek 38, which comprises 10 Premier League games kicking off at 4pm (UK time) on Sunday.

So, before Sunday’s 2.30pm (UK time) deadline, our FPL writers Holly Shand (HS) and Abdul Rehman (AR) have answered the best of your Gameweek 38 questions.

Should we transfer in Nkunku for the final gameweek? — Alasdair M

HS: Christopher Nkunku (£7.2million) has ultra differential status for the final gameweek of the season since he is in under one per cent of sides. A haul from him on Sunday could provide a significant boost to overall rank. The Chelsea striker scored against Brighton & Hove Albion last time out.

With Mykhailo Mudryk (£6.3m) ruled out, there’s hope of increased minutes for Nkunku, but we need to be mindful that he’s played just 411 minutes of Premier League football this season, starting just two games. It’s a high-risk, high-reward punt. I’d prefer to go with Noni Madueke (£5.3m), who has two goals and two assists in the last four gameweeks, although he is listed as a midfielder.

One free transfer for GW38. What are your thoughts, please, on Kevin De Bruyne (injury doubt? Pep Guardiola saves him for the FA Cup?) to Mohamed Salah?! (I’ve already got Phil Foden) — Tony M

AR: Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m) to Mohamed Salah (£13.4m), if you can make that move, is a no-brainer for me. Even if De Bruyne was fully fit, I would still make that transfer.

Salah is the second-best option this gameweek and an outside shout for captaincy, too. He also won’t be owned by many managers due to his price.

De Bruyne, with his Achilles injury, may not even feature at all, and you don’t want to be holding any injury doubts going into the final gameweek. 

This is actually a very rare opportunity to have Salah at such a low ownership. Only 23 per cent of managers have him in their squad and his ‘effective ownership’ last gameweek in the top 10k was around four per cent. (Effective ownership is the percentage of teams in which a player starts. If a player is captained, they’re counted twice and if they’re triple-captained, they’re counted three times.)

What would be your free hit squad? — Loic L

HS: On the final day, it’s really important to back the sides with the most to play for, so we should triple up on Manchester City and Arsenal.

From City, Erling Haaland (£14.3m) is a must-have while Phil Foden (£8.5m) and Josko Gvardiol (£5.2m) are in impressive patches of form. An Arsenal triple-up is harder to pin down, with Kai Havertz (£7.5m) my favoured attacker right now. I’d be tempted to back goalkeeper David Raya (£5.2m), along with Ben White (£6.1m), who carries the highest potential of the defenders.

Liverpool present some interesting options for Jurgen Klopp’s farewell at Anfield too, with Salah at the top of the shopping list. Then you’ve got top performer Cole Palmer (£6.3m) in a home game against Bournemouth — he feels like a must-have given his form at Stamford Bridge. Full-back Malo Gusto (£4.3m) got his sixth assist of the season against Brighton in midweek and should be nailed to start, with Reece James (£5.3m) suspended. An attacking 3-5-2 formation is best to navigate a wealth of midfield options, with Crystal Palace striker Jean-Phillipe Mateta (£5.0m) easy on the budget to fit in the forward line. 

• Free Hit XI: Raya; Gvardiol, White, Gusto; Salah, Foden, Palmer, Havertz, Son Heung-min; Haaland, Mateta.

After bench-boosting in double Gameweek 37, I am left with a template team for GW38. What differentials should I go after and how many hits should I take to chase in my mini leagues? — Edward C

AR: My favourite differentials for this gameweek are Michael Olise (£5.7m), Salah, Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£6.8m). All have great fixtures and their ownership will not be too high.

I would try to avoid hits if possible as they are unlikely to pay off on the final day. You are more likely to fall further behind taking hits in Gameweek 38 but if you are in a position where you have to, then take the hits for attackers.

If you are chasing, then look to bring in differentials with your free transfers. If you are chasing a big deficit, make sure the players you bring in won’t be owned by your rival and depending on how far you are behind, maybe even look to captain a differential. 

I don’t think you have to look at a differential captain if you’re chasing a rival who is 10-15 points ahead as that can be made up by one or two different players. However, if the lead is 20 points and above and the mini-league is your main aim, then you can look elsewhere.

The best captain differentials this week are Salah, Son Heung-min (£10.0m), Olise, Havertz and Eze, in that order.

Crystal Palace’s Michael Olise is a Gameweek 38 differential (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

Which teams should be avoided because they are ‘on the beach’? — Martin W

HS: There’s lots to be decided on the final day of the season, including the title, European places and overall league position, leaving very few sides on the beach.

Liverpool are technically in this small group, with third place in the table secure, but they’ll want a result for Klopp’s final game in charge. Aston Villa have fourth place secured and an away tie, diminishing the appeal of their assets, while West Ham have ninth place sewn up before facing title contenders Manchester City.

Theoretically, Nottingham Forest could be relegated if they suffer a very heavy defeat to Burnley but they know they are essentially assured of 17th place. Meanwhile, relegated Sheffield United host Spurs but will be keen to end on a high as they entertain their fans at Bramall Lane.

I’ve managed to save my free hit until GW38. Which player in each position do you think is essential and who do you think (in each position) is worth a final-game punt? Also, many thanks for all the articles over the season. They’ve been a pleasure to read — Derek Y

AR: Thank you, Derek I am glad the content has helped. I will list the two best players in each position this week and then also list my favourite differentials for each position.

Nailed picks

• Goalkeeper: Raya, Stefan Ortega (£3.6m)
• Defenders: White/Gabriel, Gvardiol
• Midfielder: Son, Palmer
• Forward: Haaland, Nicolas Jackson (£7.0m)

Differentials

• Goalkeeper: Alisson (£5.7m), Guglielmo Vicario (£5.3m)
• Defenders: Trent Alexander Arnold (£8.4m), Gusto
• Midfielder: Salah, Olise
• Forward: Joao Pedro (£5.2m), Mateta

Generally, to maximise the Free Hit, it’s best to have a core of the nailed picks, with two or three high-upside differentials.

Top three differential captain choices? Don’t mind which team, I can transfer in anyone! — Sam W

HS: The most exciting captain differential for the final day of the season is Salah as Anfield says farewell to Klopp after nine seasons.

It’s been a tough second half of the season for Salah but he did produce a 13-point haul in his most recent home game and notched two assists in the reverse of this fixture earlier this season.

Elsewhere, I’d look at Havertz or Leandro Trossard (£6.6m) at Arsenal. Havertz is their top fantasy scorer this calendar year, with six goal involvements in his last four league games. Meanwhile, Trossard has scored four goals in the last four gameweeks.

GO DEEPER

FPL tips: The differentials and captains to give you the edge in Gameweek 38

Which game is the most likely goal-fest? I’ll be about 40 points behind in my mini-league, so need an unusual player to bring in and captain, and hope they get something like 20 points. An easy ask, right? Thanks for both your content this season — Mark B

AR: Thanks, Mark. It’s been a pleasure! Forty points is a big deficit on the final day and you will have to go for a differential captain, assuming your rival will captain Haaland.

The Manchester City game should have the most goals, followed by Liverpool vs Wolves, Arsenal vs Everton and Sheffield United vs Spurs. So City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs attackers would be the first port of call.

Chelsea and Crystal Palace could score a few in their respective games and both teams have some good differentials: Eze, Olise, Mateta, Madueke and possibly Nkunku if he starts.

If you can get Salah in for free, he would be by best differential captaincy shout. I can’t see his ownership being more than 15 per cent in the top 100,000. If he gets a haul and Haaland somehow blanks, you may have a chance.

Erling Haaland is likely to be heavily captained in Gameweek 38 (Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

Up by six points in my league but I don’t have Haaland. Do I take a hit to get him in over Alexander Isak/Dominic Solanke and drop Kevin De Bruyne, or roll with what I have and hope ‘the robot’ blanks? — Austin M

HS: Covering Haaland is important on the final day since he has scored seven goals in his last four and will be the overwhelming captaincy favourite. De Bruyne is a doubt, so there’s no guarantee of minutes for him. His form at the Etihad has been underwhelming, too, with six successive blanks.

Dominic Solanke (£7.0m) has a tough trip to boyhood club Chelsea. He has never scored against them. You’ll have far more fun on Sunday with Haaland in your side, and even with the points hit, you’ll still be ahead of your rivals at kick-off by two points. Good luck in your quest for mini-league success!

I’m three points off top spot in my league. Any advice or players to target? I’m thinking an Arsenal midfielder? — John S

AR: A three-point lead is nothing at any stage of the season. You should play your game and make the best moves for your team. If getting an Arsenal midfielder is the best move for you, go for it.

You should only differentiate from your rival if, for example, you have the same team.

Here are the best players to target in each position to cover all bases, without mentioning the highly owned and obvious picks…

• Defenders: Alexander-Arnold, White
• Midfielders: Salah, Olise, Havertz, Eze, Luis Diaz (£7.6m), Brennan Johnson (£5.8m)
• Forwards: Chris Wood (£4.7m), Joao Pedro, Mateta, Rodrigo Muniz (£4.3m), Jackson, Cody Gakpo (£7.1m)

(Top photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)