Tensions are always high heading into a Game 7, but this one feels different for the Edmonton Oilers.
There’s no getting around it as they prepare for Monday’s winner-take-all contest of their second-round series against the Vancouver Canucks. This is the most important game of the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era.
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Never has the result of a single contest had the ability to change the narrative around this franchise or potentially alter its course in the nine seasons Nos. 97 and 29 have played together.
Beat the Canucks, and the Oilers move on to their second Western Conference final in three years. Already the best team in the regular season from the time Kris Knoblauch was hired on Nov. 12 with a .703 points percentage, the Oilers would deserve full marks for getting to another final four.
They won’t be the favourites against the Dallas Stars, who are skilled and deep at every position and have the best goaltender if Jake Oettinger is at his best.
But the Oilers are much better than they were when they took on the Colorado Avalanche in the league semifinal two years ago. They were just happy to be there in 2022. Coming off a high of handling Calgary in a Battle of Alberta series, they were just pleased to finally break through.
The Oilers were overmatched.
“We felt like losing to Colorado was a big step forward for our group,” McDavid told The Athletic before the playoffs. “We lost to a better team that was on their path.”
Added winger Zach Hyman: “We thought we probably should have won a couple games, but they were better.”
That’s not the case and wouldn’t be their mindset this time around. The Oilers might be the underdog, but they’d have a real shot to get to the Stanley Cup Final. There’s no reason to believe they couldn’t give the Stars a hard-fought series.
They wouldn’t just be knocking on the door; they’d be hacking at it with an axe.
They won’t even get that chance if they lose on Monday.
Should that happen, the Oilers will have worked all season to overcome a dreadful start only to end up right back where they were when last season ended. Only it’ll look much worse now.
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The Oilers players were devastated to lose to the Vegas Golden Knights. They thought they gave that series away.
“It feels like there’s no progress or maybe even a step back just with losing a close series,” McDavid said. “There’s no shame in losing to a team like Vegas. We felt like we were better than we showed in that series. That’s what’s disappointing.”
They’ll rue being eliminated by the Canucks, a team they were heavily favoured to defeat, even more — especially the way they dropped Games 1 and 5.
A loss would leave the Oilers in a possible state of transition, especially because Draisaitl — the other half of an unreal one-two punch with McDavid — is a year away from being eligible for free agency.
Granted the Oilers should remain competitive in the near term in what looks like an underwhelming Pacific Division. But their path for improvement sure isn’t obvious.
The Oilers are the oldest team in the NHL even if they can get younger by saying goodbye to pending UFAs like Corey Perry, 39, and Sam Gagner, 34.
Looking at the roster, it’s hard to find more than a couple of players with growth potential. A few years of underwhelming drafting has left their prospect pipeline among the worst in the NHL. Draft picks are sparse, too, the result of adding veterans in recent years.
Cap space is limited — just under $11 million with a 13-man roster, per PuckPedia — especially as the $3.225 million bill for Connor Brown’s games-played bonus comes due. There are ways to open space like buying out Jack Campbell and trading Brett Kulak so Philip Broberg can be a regular. But any desire to see Darnell Nurse and Evander Kane and their big contracts moved should be tempered because both have no-movement clauses.
But the biggest wild card is Draisaitl, who’s eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1 and is expected to be offered one by the Oilers.
These have been his best playoffs yet with 23 points in 11 games. That’s saying something considering his remarkable production — 100 points in 60 contests — over his career.
What will he think about the direction of the team if the Oilers bow out in the second round again? Of course, McDavid’s contract is up a year later as well.
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So, clearly Monday night is massive for this organization. The importance of the outcome can’t be overstated.
Only one other playoff contest result has even come close to having this type of swing. That was Game 7 of the Round 1 against the Los Angeles Kings.
The 2022 playoffs represented the fourth playoff trip for the McDavid-led Oilers.
The first, in 2017, amounted to the Oilers getting their feet wet even though winning a round and pushing the next series to seven games was a nice feather in their cap.
They lost in the qualifying round to Chicago in 2020. The Oilers overachieved that season and the bubble playoffs were as weird and fake a postseason as there ever was.
They were swept by Winnipeg in the North Division first round the next season. As odd as it is to suggest, they were probably the better team in that series. They got refereed and goalied. They blew a game when Josh Archibald took a selfish penalty.
But there were no more excuses in 2022. Dave Tippett was fired after an ugly midseason swoon and the Oilers took off after Jay Woodcroft replaced him. Woodcroft didn’t have a contract for the coming season, though, and a first-round exit was no longer acceptable.
Whether Woodcroft returned or not, there would have been major changes had the Oilers not won Game 7. Instead, McDavid recorded a goal and an assist in 27:23 as part of one of the best games of his NHL career given what was on the line.
The stakes were big then. They’re enormous now.
The Oilers are two years more experienced and two years more advanced. McDavid and Draisaitl are still McDavid and Draisaitl. But just think of some of the key upgrades. Hyman is better. Evan Bouchard is better. Mattias Ekholm is better than Duncan Keith at the respective stages of their careers. Warren Foegele hasn’t shown it in the playoffs yet, but he had a career season.
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The Oilers should be primed to contend for a Stanley Cup. They can’t let this opportunity slip through their fingers. A win on Monday will keep them on that path and give them their best chance for ultimate supremacy in the McDavid era.
A loss arouses a lot of uncertainty about the Oilers’ future. Most startling, it’ll call into question if they’ve peaked with McDavid and Draisaitl leading the way.
So, don’t feel bad about shredding and biting fingernails on Monday night, Oilers fans.
(Top photo: Derek Cain / Getty Images)
