Can the Pacers upset the Celtics? Plus, a Lakers’ coaching search update

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - JANUARY 8: Tyrese Haliburton #0 of the Indiana Pacers dribbles the ball during the game against the Boston Celtics on January 8, 2024 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
By Zach Harper and Shams Charania
May 21, 2024

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In case you were inspired by Anthony Edwards and feeling entrepreneurial, sorry to inform you BringYaAss.com is taken and leads to a Minnesota tourism site.

Eastern Conference Finals

Can the Pacers reach the NBA Finals?

Tonight, the Eastern Conference finals between the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics and the No. 6 seed Indiana Pacers tip off. Game 1 is at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Celtics are heavy favorites to continue marching through the East for a Finals return, but Indiana has refused to go away. These teams have two of the most efficient regular-season offenses ever (Boston: first, Indiana: second). Here’s what you need to know:

How did Boston get here? It took the Celtics 10 games to reach the conference finals. The last time they did that, the first round was still a best-of-five (2002). They beat Miami in five after dropping Game 2 at home before doing the same to Cleveland.

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How did Indiana get here? Some will say injuries, which is partially true. They played a Bucks team that missed Giannis Antetokounmpo for the entire series and Damian Lillard for part of it. Indiana won that series in six and faced a battered Knicks team missing half its rotation, winning Game 7 in New York.

What happened in the regular-season series? The Celtics went 3-2 against the Pacers, including a 51-point win (no Tyrese Haliburton) and an In-Season Tournament loss. Only one of their matchups happened with Pascal Siakam in the mix.

Does that matter? Probably not. They haven’t played since Jan. 30.

Any key injuries? Kristaps Porziņģis is still dealing with his calf injury and will miss part of the series. Bennedict Mathurin is out for Indiana.

Key matchup for Boston: Once again, the Celtics can throw so much perimeter defense at an All-NBA-caliber guard. Haliburton will have to deal with Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Jaylen Brown. These are three All-Defense-quality players. In four games against Boston, Hali was held to 15.8 points, nine assists and 41.1/32.1/100 shooting splits. 🗜️🗜️🗜️

Key matchup for Indiana: Siakam and Myles Turner on Jayson Tatum. The Celtics star feasted on Indiana this season, averaging 32.5 points, 11 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 57.8/48.6/70.8 shooting splits. He dropped 30-7-7 in the one game against Siakam with the Pacers. They must slow down Tatum and pray.

What does an upset look like in this series? First and foremost, it probably means Porziņģis never really plays. If and when he’s out there, it’s curtains for Indiana. Haliburton needs to have an all-time series, as would Turner and Siakam. And we’d need to see the Celtics just collapse on offense at least four times.

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What are the betting odds from BetMGM? -900 for Boston, +600 for Indiana

What does your gut tell you? Boston wins in six.

What does your brain tell you? Boston wins in five. Let’s preview Game 1 below, shall we?

The Latest From Shams

Lakers’ coaching search update

The Lakers have started interviewing candidates for their next coach, league sources not authorized to speak publicly on the matter tell Jovan Buha and me.

The team has held formal meetings with JJ Redick, New Orleans Pelicans associate head coach James Borrego and Boston Celtics assistant coach Sam Cassell over the past several days, according to those sources. While Redick and Lakers star LeBron James co-host the podcast “Mind The Game,” James has made it known he is staying out of the team’s coaching search.

Jovan and I have more details on the Lakers’ process and search right here.

Celtics-Pacers, Game 1

Three things to watch

Game 1 of a conference finals can be a “feelout” type of game. Other times, the other team makes a statement that rattles the confidence of its opponent. Here are three things to look for in Boston tonight.

Protecting the 3-point line: Both teams can put up an absurd barrage of 3s, but which one can limit the other’s shooting? The Celtics are set up to defend, but if their shots don’t fall, do they have another mode? Boston shoots 40.6 percent from deep in wins and 32.4 percent when losing. Indiana allowed the fewest 3-pointers this season, mostly because the Pacers leave the paint so wide-open. Who wins the math battle here?

How aggressive is Haliburton to start this series? Hali’s numbers don’t change across the board between wins and losses – same with turnovers. But when the Pacers win, Haliburton has a 64.6 percent true shooting percentage and averages 21.1 points. When they lose? Those figures drop to 55.1 percent and 18.8 points. He has to score.

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Can Indiana compete on the boards? We saw the Pacers struggle on the boards against New York, but they managed to pull out the series. They were one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. This season, when they win the battle on the boards, they’re 32-8, including the playoffs. When Boston wins it, they’re 51-6 (!!!) including the playoffs.

Putting the “D” in Dallas Defense

How did the Mavericks get elite on defense?

Through 62 games, the Mavericks were the 23rd-best defense in the league. Another way of putting that is they had the NBA’s eighth-worst defense. They couldn’t stop anybody. You could have knocked down a jumper against them, but mostly because I believe in you. Then, over the final quarter of the season, after midseason acquisitions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington got acclimated, things took a dramatic turn.

The Mavericks became the best defense in the NBA – literally. Their defensive rating improved by 10.1 points per 100 possessions, which fueled their surge up the playoff standings. They went from a solid, 34-28 team ranked eighth in the crowded West to winning 16 of their final 20 games and securing the No. 5 seed. And that surge has continued in the playoffs. What changed? Let’s look at the numbers.

The biggest changes you’ll see from the first 62 games to the final 20 games of the season is Dallas’ defensive rebounding rate skyrocketing, and the opponents scoring in the restricted area plummeting. The Mavs went from one of the worst in the league in both to being really good at rebounding and elite at protecting the rim. In the process, we saw solid improvement in 3-point percentage allowed. You should look at their rim protection in the playoffs, which has been Dikembe Mutombo-esque.

They also started forcing more turnovers, allowing fewer second-chance points (see the defensive rebounding rate again), allowing fewer fast-break points and getting even better at limiting points allowed off turnovers. While the points off turnovers have reverted in the postseason, everything else has improved greatly.

Part of this is the Mavs sticking to a mostly basic shell defense and not varying from it. Gafford and rookie center Dereck Lively II have been great protecting the rim and grabbing boards. We’ve also seen Washington step up in a way that I’m not sure anybody could have imagined based on his time in Charlotte. Derrick Jones Jr. has been stellar. Throw in Kyrie Irving dedicating himself to the defensive end, Luka also giving more effort, and you can see why Dallas reached the conference finals.

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The Mavericks didn’t go through cupcake opponents either. The Clippers had the fourth-best offense in the league in the regular season (yes, Kawhi Leonard being out affected this, but there was still a ton of firepower in LA). And the Thunder had the third-best offense. Jason Kidd has the Mavs playing defense after Nico Harrison fixed the roster’s deficiencies. Starting tomorrow, they have to stop Anthony Edwards.

Bounce Passes

Why does the NBA believe in referee Scott Foster and the people don’t?

Did Dereck Lively II get snubbed from the All-Rookie First Team?

The Wolves aren’t a laughing stock anymore. They’re here.

(Top photo: Jesse D. Garrabrant /  Getty Images )

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