Timberwolves at Mavericks Game 3 odds, expert picks: Dallas returns home up 2-0

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - MAY 24: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks signals to his team during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals at Target Center on May 24, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
By Dan Santaromita
May 26, 2024

The Athletic has live coverage of the Mavericks vs. Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals

In the second round, Minnesota won the first two games on the road against Denver and the defending champs responded with two wins in Minneapolis. Now the Timberwolves are on the other side of that scenario, heading to Dallas trailing the Western Conference finals 2-0.

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Both of Dallas’ wins went down to the final minute, but Minnesota is really going to be thinking it should have won Game 2. The Timberwolves led by as many as 18 points and were up five with less than 90 seconds left, but didn’t score in the last 89 seconds and Luka Dončić nailed a memorable playoff game-winner with three seconds left.

Here’s a look at the storylines, odds and staff picks for Sunday’s Game 3 of the Western Conference finals in Dallas.

All odds from BetMGMFind the best deals on StubHub for tickets.


No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves at No. 5 Dallas Mavericks

How to watch: 8 p.m. ET on TNT

Dallas leads series 2-0

Series odds: Mavericks -600, Timberwolves +425

How can Minnesota respond after losing two games at home that were there for the taking? Dallas has simply been better in the last minute of both games in this series. The Timberwolves have one field goal and three combined points in the final minute of the two games, including two killer turnovers in the final minute of Game 2.

Dallas is now heavily favored to advance to the NBA Finals. The Mavericks head home up 2-0 and even a split in Dallas is enough to keep the Timberwolves on their heels. Road teams have won plenty this postseason, but this is an incredibly tough spot to get out of, especially for a relatively inexperienced team.

Minnesota needs Anthony Edwards to get going. Whether he’s hit a wall from exhaustion or is just slumping, he hasn’t played well in his last few games. Edwards has been held under 20 points in three of the last five games dating back to the Denver series. He is 17-for-57 (29.8 percent) from the field in his last three games.

That could be one source of optimism for Minnesota going forward. The Timberwolves have had chances to win both games (and won Game 7 in Denver with Edwards shooting 6-for-24) this series with Edwards not playing well. If he can get going again, Minnesota should have a chance to win in Dallas.

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Naz Reid has been huge for Minnesota with a team-high 23 points on 7-for-9 3-point shooting on Friday. He had a decent look at a potential buzzer-beater, but it rimmed out. Reid may not have another 7-for-9 in him, but he has picked up some of the slack with Edwards not playing at his best.

Meanwhile, Dallas’ superstars have stepped up. Dončić has scored 65 points in the two games in this series and has been efficient in doing so. He even had a triple-double (32 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds) on Friday. Kyrie Irving took over Game 1 with a 30-point effort.

In two close games, the difference has been the play of the superstars. Dallas’ have been great. Edwards has not been for Minnesota.

Expert picks for Timberwolves at Mavericks


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Luka Dončić shows the Timberwolves — and the NBA world — that he is that guy

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Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns outclassed so far in Western Conference finals

(Photo of Luka Dončić: David Berding / Getty Images)

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Dan Santaromita

Dan Santaromita is a senior editor for sports betting at The Athletic. Dan previously wrote for NBC Sports Chicago and ProSoccerUSA. He is a University of Missouri graduate who resides in Chicago. Follow Dan on Twitter @TheDanSanto