In the Netherlands, they would call it a ‘rampjaar’. Translation: a ‘disaster year’. The phrase dates back to 1672, a time of conflict, division and political instability in the Low Countries during the Franco-Dutch War. A time so bad that, at its darkest point, the Dutch ate their prime minister.
Erik ten Hag was always going to avoid that grim fate, whatever happened at Wembley this weekend, but that is exactly how Manchester United’s season was being viewed at around 2.59pm on Saturday as they prepared to take on Manchester City in the FA Cup final. An annus horribilis. A disaster year. A rampjaar.
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Eighth, their lowest finish of the Premier League era. Sixty points, only two better off than their worst tally since the competition began in 1992. A goal difference of minus-one — the wrong side of zero for the first time in 34 years. An early Champions League exit, too. A failed defence of the Carabao Cup on top.
And now, for their final trick, another go at an FA Cup final against their double-chasing cross-city rivals, where staying level for longer than the first 12 seconds would represent an improvement on the 2023 edition.
But a little more than two hours later, with Wembley’s east stand bathed in evening sunshine and 35,000 United supporters celebrating a result that very few of them would have realistically expected, you wondered how much of what had come before 2.59pm still mattered.
Let’s not get silly. This was not Sunderland in 1973, Southampton in 1976 or Wimbledon in 1988. It was the fourth-highest wage bill in the Premier League coming out on top by the odd goal against its highest overall. In fact, at the last count, it was the most expensively-assembled squad in world football beating the second-most.
And yet in the circumstances of United facing arguably the finest team in world football, amid the circus that had revolved around the club over the previous 48 hours, it was still a shock of considerable magnitude and a result that may change some people’s perception of their 2023-24 season.
Do the last nine, mostly miserable, months pale into irrelevance when set against a second trophy in as many years under the Dutchman? Ten Hag himself would argue they do, especially to a media that he said has judged him unfairly during an unrelenting injury crisis, on top of numerous off-field distractions.
This is a success achieved despite all those struggles and should be hailed as such, even if the bigger picture this season has been that of a team going backwards. Not one of Sir Alex Ferguson’s other successors won trophies in consecutive years.
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It was notable, though, that Ten Hag did not plant the trophy on the table in his press conference afterwards — despite Louis van Gaal doing so eight years ago following what proved his last match as United manager, despite Ten Hag himself doing so when he won the Carabao Cup 15 months ago.
Maybe he knew that United’s success would still not be the focus of the post-match proceedings, as much as he might have wanted it to be. He dealt well with questions about his job security. He was defiant, insisting he would continue to win silverware elsewhere if his future does lie away from Manchester.
Yet understandably, he did not always look like a manager who had just won a cup final in those moments. And by contrast, opposite number Pep Guardiola did not always look like a manager who had lost one.
Guardiola pointed the finger at himself, blaming his game plan for City’s defeat.
It was a strangely anaemic City performance and their first defeat in 90 minutes since early December, although not entirely out of character. It was not an especially worse display than in the narrow semi-final win against Chelsea last month, for example.
Guardiola’s disappointment was clear, particularly at his most self-critical moments when discussing City’s sub-par first half. But there were also repeated reminders of what has been achieved this season regardless, and of the celebration of a fourth successive league title in a parade today (Sunday) on the streets of Manchester.
Whereas victory meant a potential lifeline for one manager, defeat was just a flesh wound to the other. An opportunity missed, yes, but with another season surely to offer many more around the corner. That confidence comes from a winning culture, something that City developed long ago and that United are still seeking to emulate.
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Because for all the criticism of United making plans to potentially replace Ten Hag in the build-up to this game, with all the parallels with countryman Van Gaal’s situation in 2016, it was once a City manager who walked out at Wembley expecting that FA Cup final game to be his last match in the job, whatever the result.
That Roberto Mancini lost the 2012-13 final to a relegation-bound Wigan Athletic hardly helped his cause but the axe was likely to fall regardless. Like Mancini’s appointment to replace Mark Hughes four years earlier, the decision demonstrated an unforgiving edge to City’s ownership.
Sir Jim Ratcliffe has made no secret of his admiration for how City operate, not only through his appointments since buying into United back in February but through public proclamations, showing no hesitation to praise the way the club is run while announcing his investment in their historic rivals.
And so, on the main subject of the day, maybe the question to ask is: would City stand by a manager who had finished eighth in the league but won the FA Cup?
Even when allowing for the injuries, for all the uncertainty he has had to put up with, and for the not unrealistic prospect of better times ahead under his management, the likely answer to that question feels ominous for Ten Hag.
It is a question that could easily surface over the coming week, as Ratcliffe and his INEOS counterparts review the season and assess their manager’s performance so they can make a cold, considered decision not based on the euphoria around a single result.
Winning the FA Cup has at least avoided a rampjaar, and that can only count in Ten Hag’s favour. But even if this achievement changes how United’s difficult season is remembered, it remains to be seen if it will be enough to save their manager.
GO DEEPER
No socks and no sacking... for now: Erik ten Hag's strange (FA Cup winning) day at Wembley
(Top photo: Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images)
