Yu Darvish made his final start of the 2023 season on Aug. 25, almost a month after Joe Musgrove made his final start of the 2023 season. From Aug. 26 on, the San Diego Padres went 21-12. Their starting pitchers combined for a 3.41 ERA in that span. For five weeks, the Padres showed they could survive and even thrive without two pillars of their starting rotation.
Advertisement
They also hit .268 with a .781 OPS across those 33 games. They got Cy Young Award-clinching outings from Blake Snell, solid showings from Seth Lugo and, among other examples of useful depth, three scoreless starts from Nick Martinez. They played 22 games against teams that would finish the year in fourth or fifth place.
The 2024 Padres will play their next 13 games against teams currently in fourth or fifth place. Darvish and Musgrove are each back on the injured list for the second time, but this two-week stretch still represents a critical opportunity to build what would be a welcome cushion in the standings.
Over the weekend, the Padres (32-30) won a series against the Kansas City Royals. In coming from ahead to lose the finale on a walk-off, they also fumbled a chance to move to four games above .500 for the first time since 2022. And it was less than three years ago that San Diego, with its starting rotation decimated by injuries, imploded after being 17 games above .500 in August.
The Padres appear poised to call up prospect Adam Mazur to start Tuesday at Angel Stadium in place of Darvish, who has been hampered this season by neck tightness and now a groin strain. Randy Vásquez picked up his first win for San Diego on Saturday and could make at least a few more starts in place of Musgrove, who is experiencing a recurrence of the elbow inflammation that sidelined him in the first half of May. Given their extensive injury histories, Musgrove and Darvish likely will be handled with considerable caution for the rest of the season.
Would San Diego, fielding limited major-league-ready rotation depth, be content to trust the likes of Vásquez and Mazur? Those two, partly out of necessity, will get their chances. But this should not be a surprise: The Padres are again active in the trade market after acquiring Dylan Cease in March and springing for Luis Arraez in early May.
Advertisement
League sources indicate that the Padres have recently checked back in with Arraez’s and Cease’s former teams and other potential trade partners. The Miami Marlins are expected to sell off more pieces before the July 30 trade deadline, with controllable left-handers Jesus Lúzardo and Braxton Garrett among the top candidates to go. Owners of the worst record in the majors, the Chicago White Sox could dangle reliever Michael Kopech, starter Erick Fedde and perhaps even Garrett Crochet. (Like Lúzardo, Crochet is under control through 2026.)
Contact prevails
When the dust finally settled in the top of the eighth inning Friday, the Padres had set a new franchise record. The Royals, meanwhile, had just experienced the baseball version of lingchi.
San Diego’s 11 hits in the frame surpassed its previous single-inning high (10). The first 10 hits were singles. The final hit was an opposite-field, ground-ball double. The result — a nine-run pileup that felt like a thousand cuts — was the ultimate example of what manager Mike Shildt and hitting coach Victor Rodriguez have preached since spring training.
“What we’re doing on the road is built for (Petco Park),” Shildt said recently. “Petco Park hitting, that’s just using the whole field, take what the game gives you.”
The Padres have yet to find their offensive stride on their spacious home field. But they continue to demonstrate the effectiveness of their approach in other places: On the road, they are 19-11 with the majors’ highest batting average (.295) and on-base percentage (.349). They have compensated for a relative power outage from their biggest stars by using the whole field and consistently putting the ball in play.
| Year | Zone contact % | Chase contact % | Swing % | Line drive % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 85.0 | 60.8 | 47.3 | 26.4 |
2023 | 83.0 | 58.2 | 44.4 | 22.4 |
The additions of Arraez, who is hitting .391/.414/.455 with San Diego, and Donovan Solano (.404/.472/.532) have fueled a more contact-oriented approach. With Xander Bogaerts sidelined indefinitely and Manny Machado mired in the second-longest homer-less streak of his career, the Padres need to keep it going. Friday at least provided their best template yet.
Advertisement
Bullpen dominos
The Royals showed resilience late in Friday’s game by scoring five ninth-inning runs and forcing Shildt to bring Robert Suarez into an unexpected save situation. The final frame also exposed the questionable big-league readiness of rookie reliever Stephen Kolek and set off a costly, multi-day sequence. After Shildt used Suarez to finish off Saturday’s win in a non-save situation — Suarez faced the top of Kansas City’s order with a four-run lead — the closer was unavailable for Sunday’s series finale. Yuki Matsui took the mound in the bottom of the ninth, promptly allowed three runs, and absorbed his third blown save in three big-league save opportunities.
The Padres liked Kolek’s stuff enough to take him in the Rule 5 draft in December. Despite a 6.66 ERA in 25 appearances, they still like his stuff. Of course, results are what matter at the highest level. Opponents are hitting .321 and slugging .468 against Kolek. They have crushed his sweeper for a .364 average and a .773 slugging percentage. And his present lack of trustworthiness, even in lopsided games, can produce an undesired domino effect, as it did over the weekend.
Tuesday could bring a significant decision for a team carrying nine relievers. The Padres plan to call up Mazur or another pitcher to start against the Los Angeles Angels. For the corresponding move, they could option reliever Logan Gillaspie back to Triple-A El Paso. (Gillaspie was recalled when Musgrove and Darvish went on the injured list.) Alternatively, they could stop carrying Kolek and place the 27-year-old on outright waivers. (If a Rule 5 pick clears waivers, he must be offered back to his previous organization — in Kolek’s case, the Seattle Mariners — for $50,000.)
There is potential in Kolek’s arm; he sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, and the aforementioned sweeper has above-average movement. There is value in his soaking up low-leverage innings while preserving the arms of other pitchers. And there are reasons why most would-be contenders do not carry Rule 5 draftees. For now, the Kolek experiment continues.
(Top photo of Stephen Kolek: Denis Poroy / USA Today)
