Lloyd Kelly to Newcastle United: The Athletic 500 transfer ratings

Lloyd Kelly has joined Newcastle United on a free transfer after leaving Bournemouth.

Our writers — experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finances — have come together to rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers against five categories, each given a score out of 100, to reach a total out of 500. Hence, The Athletic 500. The ratings are explained here.

Below is our ranking for this move.

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Tactical fit — 76/100

A look at how the player fits into his new club tactically using Sentient Sports’ bespoke tactical fit model, explained by our tactical expert.

Newcastle struggled with a shortage of centre-backs during the 2023-24 season, with both Jamaal Lascelles and Sven Botman sidelined with anterior cruciate ligament injuries. Kelly can play as either a left-sided centre-back in a back three or a left-back in a back four.

The 25-year-old can also shift into a back three from left-back, which matches with Newcastle’s preferred 3-2-5 structure in attack. This explains his formation rating of 88 according to our tactical fit model.

He appears to be a long-term successor for Dan Burn but also offers superior pace. This mitigates counter-attacks, while Kelly is able to handle one-vs-one situations well.

At 60.9 per cent aerial duels won, Kelly is in the top 12 per cent of centre-backs in the top five European leagues. His height and jumping ability are both attacking and defending assets.

Kelly has a good record for aerial duels (Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)

Kelly’s comfort in possession is vital, notably on the left side, where Newcastle felt Botman’s absence. Kelly’s move supports a shift away from a direct, long-ball setup. His progressive passing aligns with Howe’s plans to transition Newcastle into a possession-based team. He is mobile, comfortable on the ball and provides solidity.

The 25-year-old will reduce the age profile of Newcastle’s centre-backs, with only Botman not in his late 20s or early 30s at present. But it is of note that Kelly only has a style rating of 63, which is calculated by comparing the player’s historical team styles to that of his new team.

Gillian Kasirye

Season rating — 60/100

Rating the player over last season, using statistics from The Athletic’s data team

Kelly had an injury-interrupted campaign for Bournemouth but demonstrated versatility and quality across two positions.

After missing time with a calf injury, he started five straight games through October and November, switching between left-back and central defence. During this period, Bournemouth recorded victories against Burnley, Newcastle, and Sheffield United, with Kelly captaining Andoni Iraola’s side against Burnley.

The left-footer was then out of action until late January with a muscle injury but came back and impressed at left-back for five matches, including a 2-2 away draw at St James’ Park. Unfortunately, Kelly was sidelined again in late February for four games with a hip injury before winning his place back for the season’s final stretch.

Kelly finished with 21 league appearances as Bournemouth achieved an impressive 12th-place finish.

Elias Burke

Gaming rating — 72/100

Rating the player according to Football Manager 2024’s data across current and potential ability

According to Football Manager, Kelly is a Premier League-quality centre-back with the potential to become among the league’s best.

Kelly’s current ability on FM24 is 133, comparable to Tosin Adarabioyo (135), who joined Chelsea as a free agent this summer after spending four seasons at Fulham. He’s at his best performing in a ‘ball-playing defender’ role under the ‘cover’ duty, suggesting Sports Interactive’s scouting team believe he is a strong passer who prefers to protect the space behind the defence rather than aggressively hunt for the ball.

Crucially, if he achieves his potential ability (153), the 25-year-old would rank among top centre-backs including Arsenal’s Gabriel (156) and Botman (156), with whom he will play at Newcastle. Given Eddie Howe’s track record of improving talent, there’s no reason to believe he could not reach that level.

Elias Burke

Financial value rating — 64/100

A four-category summary of the player’s transfer in financial terms — and whether it makes sense for his new club.

Market value – 19/25
There are obvious parallels with Tosin’s move this summer, another free-agent switch in the Premier League. Kelly was a £13million ($16.6m) player when joining Bournemouth from Bristol City in 2019 and has since made more than 50 top-flight appearances. Newcastle will feel it is astute business.

Squad cost – 16/25
Newcastle are on a very different budget to previous windows, with profit and sustainability rules inhibiting their ability to spend big. The long-term absence of Botman called for defensive reinforcements and Kelly’s arrival does not eat into a budget that has its limits.

Contract sensibility – 16/25
Kelly turned down fresh contract offers from Bournemouth with a view to maximising his earning power this summer. A deal running to at least 2029 means there is no Newcastle player tied down for longer and there is also the option for an additional year. Nevertheless, there is very little risk involved given his track record.

Resale value – 14/25
Kelly will be 26 in October and almost 31 when his existing deal expires. No shortage of experience or versatility and the interest from around Europe this summer would indicate he will always have his suitors.

Philip Buckingham

Risk or reward? — 57/100

Is there an injury history or other problems that could crop up in the future and make this deal a bad one in retrospect? Or does the player come with a clean bill of health? Our expert takes a look

Given Kelly is a homegrown player available as a free agent, it is no surprise many clubs were interested in his signature. Still, while he has proven his talent at the Vitality Stadium, his recent injury record is cause for some concern.

Since moving from to Bournemouth five years ago, Kelly has suffered 13 injuries that have kept him out of action for one or more games, including eight that have sidelined him for more than four.

Newcastle’s medical team may take encouragement from the reasonably even spread of injuries, suggesting there is no persistent niggle from which he has failed to recover fully. However, given Newcastle’s injury issues last season, they will be keen to help put his fitness woes behind him.

Elias Burke

Overall rating: 329/500

(Top photo: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)