No NFL team wants to be stuck in the middle, and certainly not in the cutthroat AFC, which features the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and a slew of other contenders.
The Chiefs are really in a class of their own, but close behind them are the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins, whom I’d put in the top six because of my confidence in their quarterbacks, even if I still have some questions. These six teams also have the highest projected 2024 win totals in the AFC, per BetMGM, as the betting public expects all six to hit double-digit wins.
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If that proves accurate, it could leave the rest of the AFC fighting for one playoff spot, and there’s no shortage of competition. Let’s take a closer look at six teams muddled in the middle of the conference, and who’s trending toward (or away from) contention, starting with the other half of perhaps the NFL’s toughest division, the AFC North.
Cleveland Browns
Now that the Browns have extended the contracts of their top two decision-makers, coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry, the elephant in the room is the quarterback carrying a $63.8 million cap charge. The Browns are already projected to be nearly $43 million over the cap in 2025, per Over the Cap, so they must show progress and results this season.
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Deshaun Watson is now four years removed from top form. Is this just who he is? If he ever returns to his previous level, can he stay healthy? If your glass is half full, you might point to Watson’s performance in the Browns’ win over the Ravens last season, but it was a very rocky road, even taking the most optimistic view.
Last season, the only team to finish with a lower passer rating than the Browns (73.7) was the Nathaniel Hackett-coordinated Jets (70.5), which is not the best company to keep. Cleveland also tossed a league-leading 23 interceptions.
There are other questions, like if and when running back Nick Chubb can return from a serious knee injury. Many think Thanksgiving is a realistic time frame. I think they still lack juice on the perimeter. Newly acquired wideout Jerry Jeudy remains a question mark after what was mostly an underachieving four seasons in Denver.
On the bright side, the defense comes back intact in “run it back” mode. It’s easy to understand why. The Browns ranked first in total defense (270.2 yards per game) and third-down defense (29.1 percent conversion rate). The unit was not unblemished, though, getting lit up in Houston in the playoffs. Browns fans have to hope that was an exception and not a blueprint for the rest of the league to follow in 2024.
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Ultimately, the Browns might be as good or better than last season (when they went 11-6), but in this brutal division, it might not translate to results unless the QB takes a big step.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers might have the best QB room in this group of middle-tier teams, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. With new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and his play-action, RPO-heavy scheme, Fields’ skill set fits the best. Because of that, I think Fields will play a bigger part in the offense than most — even the Steelers, who have given Wilson all of the first-team reps so far — might think. Fields’ rare athletic ability and the pressure that puts on defenses will be fun to watch.
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But here is the caveat and still the biggest question: Can he get the ball out on time? It’s the missing link in Fields’ game, one that the Bears’ offensive coaches could not solve. If the ball doesn’t come out, the scheme won’t matter.
Wilson, on the other hand, has to show consistent discipline to play within a very structured system without trying to “cook.” If you go back to Wilson’s last season in Seattle, he’s in a situation similar to Watson, now four years removed from his peak level of performance.
Any way you look at it, Wilson and Fields are playing for their careers as NFL starters, for different reasons. But I like the fit because whoever starts will be paired with a consistent, disciplined, power running game that goes north and south, unlike the finesse, east-west system that never made sense to me — and never fit the Steelers’ personnel — during former coordinator Matt Canada’s tenure.
Defensively, the Steelers still have the talent for a top-10 unit, and adding linebacker Patrick Queen while weakening a division opponent was a good move. That said, they have some concerning trends from 2023 to fix: They ranked 21st in total defense (341.1 yards per game) and third-down defense (39.1 percent conversion rate), 23rd in yards per play (5.4) and 19th in rush defense (115.1 yards per game). With the same coordinator (Teryl Austin) and system in place for 2024, I have the same questions in 2024.
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The Steelers could really swing in either direction. It might take them time to sort out the quarterback situation and click with Smith’s new scheme, but I like their overall direction.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars might be the most talented team in this muddle. Frankly, they should be better than they are, and there is no way around it.
They have defensive players who are hard to block, but I had questions in 2023 about the scheme and how they deployed players or adjusted on the fly. Now a new coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, arrives with a different approach for the same cast of characters. They must go from playing checkers to chess. That said, defense is not why the Jags leave us wanting more.
As I wrote last month, the development of quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been uneven, leaving the Jaguars stuck on offense and lacking the consistency to take the next step. Until they can take better care of the ball (30 turnovers in 2023, fifth most) and improve on third downs and in other high-leverage situations, it’s going to be a struggle.
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It’s really not oversimplifying it to say coach Doug Pederson’s future is tied to Lawrence’s development. Offense is Pederson’s specialty, and if he can’t fix it, that’s an obvious red flag. It’s also difficult to decide how much to pay a quarterback in this market, where new deals are eclipsing $50 million per year and the margin for error is thin. Do the Jaguars have enough information to pay Lawrence like a top-five QB right now? What other options are there? I think doing so now would be risky.
Put all of it together and the Jaguars have perhaps the highest ceiling and lowest floor of this bunch. If Lawrence takes a leap, they could make noise in the playoffs. But if he gets paid and stagnates, Jacksonville could be looking for another new coach with a salary-cap mess on its hands.
Los Angeles Chargers
I love where the Chargers are and the changes they have made. With his structured, old-school approach, Jim Harbaugh is just what the doctor ordered, bringing a bright and clear vision — from both a coaching and personnel standpoint — after years of fog and inconsistency in the organization. Now the Chargers know what they want to be, and they have specific targets to fit that vision.
The Chargers’ issues from 2023 are relevant, but this is a culture change that goes beyond numbers. Harbaugh’s style of leadership should be welcomed by players on both sides of the ball. He’s authentic, and he has the direct communication skills that today’s NFL players want and need.
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We all know quarterback Justin Herbert is really good, but there’s an understandable talent void at other key positions on offense. A salary-cap squeeze led to the departures of receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler. That’s nobody’s fault — all teams have to make difficult decisions about how to allocate their resources. I’m quite confident that new GM Joe Hortiz and his staff will rectify the talent level soon.
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The Chargers did add players with great intangibles like Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt, who can set the hard-nosed tone that Harbaugh wants. They need a few more players with similar makeup, but it’s going to take time. The lack of overall talent on the roster might hold them back temporarily, but I think they are positioned to get it right.
New York Jets
The Jets have taken a totally different approach to team building, going all in to a degree we haven’t seen in years. I’m not sure any team has ever gone in so deep and been so dependent on a single player — and, more specifically, a single, 40-year-old Achilles tendon — during my time in the NFL. If nothing else, it’s gutsy.
Now Aaron Rodgers has decided to skip mandatory minicamp. Are we really surprised? This is the same team that traded for a pass rusher (Haason Reddick) who everyone knew was looking for a new contract, who has not spoken to his new head coach since the deal was made and who is also skipping minicamp.
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The Jets have talent, but not to the extent that some claim. Many areas of this franchise can be questioned: coaching, game planning, effort level and engagement of the players, front-office evaluation and the acquisition of players.
Sure, the Jets could be a playoff team, but they could also be a total dumpster fire, so much so that even people in their own building are just crossing their fingers and hoping for the best. The questions are many, and the answers are few and far between.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos went 8-9 in 2023, and it felt like they might have been further from where the head coach wanted them to be than any other team in the league. Sean Payton had a QB he clearly did not want, a defense that gave up 70 points in a single game and a front-office relationship that appeared awkward as an arranged marriage. Catching the Chiefs requires everyone to be on the same page, and this team certainly wasn’t.
Denver’s quarterbacks have all now been hand-chosen by the QB whisperer. Rookie Bo Nix could be the Week 1 starter, but Payton has made it clear that the job is up for grabs among Nix, the newly acquired Zach Wilson and holdover Jarrett Stidham.
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Working with $67.6 million in dead money — the most in the league — can limit anyone’s team-building, so this might be another year of just surviving to get to 2025. But I believe Payton will make this team competitive. I really like the addition of Josh Reynolds, especially for just $9 million over two years. If (and I know it’s a big if) fellow receiver Tim Patrick can leave behind his snakebitten injury history, this offense will be better than it was a year ago.
I think the defense made significant strides to improve by the end of 2023. Sometimes, minimizing change makes you better in the wake of chaos like this team has faced over the past two years. Because of that, I could see this team improving by a game or two in 2024.
(Top photos of Russell Wilson, left, and Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert: Joe Sargent and Kathryn Riley / Getty Images)
