If you told the world when Trevor Lawrence was drafted that his second contract would make him the highest-paid player in the NFL at five years for $275 million, no one would have doubted you. The Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback selected with the top pick in the 2021 draft was billed as a generational prospect and with good reason as he has a generational toolset. He’s 6-foot-6 with the arm talent to make every throw and can run like a gazelle. We’ve seen flashes of that talent on display and long stretches of high efficiency.
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Many would not have batted an eye if he had gotten such a massive contract extension after his breakout second season in 2022. However, his deal comes after a season of regression. In 2023, he didn’t throw for more than two touchdowns in any game and went from ranking sixth in EPA per dropback in 2022 to 19th. Even at his peak last season, the numbers didn’t scream generational but the expectations were he would build on his success and progress. But quarterbacks, especially young ones, are products of their environment and the Jaguars didn’t provide Lawrence with much help.
.@Trevorlawrencee is coming.#DUUUVAL
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) June 14, 2024
Despite ranking 10th in offensive spending with a quarterback still on a rookie contract at the time, the Jaguars ranked 31st in EPA per rush and 29th in pass block win rate. Their expensive receiving corps also was plagued with injuries and inconsistency but still, Lawrence isn’t blameless. He has to make strides in several areas before he can live up to his lofty draft status and contract extension. Let’s look at where the Jaguars and Lawrence failed last season and whether they’ve addressed those issues.
1. Ridley’s misuse and failure
The Jaguars’ biggest offseason move last season was trading with the Falcons for receiver Calvin Ridley, who was coming off a season-long suspension. Ridley is not big at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds and doesn’t have elite speed — he wins with quickness and route running. His best usage is at Z and at slot. He’s not your traditional X receiver who lines up on the line and predominately outside because he can struggle with press coverage and can’t consistently beat corners down the sideline.
Yet, he was primarily used as an X receiver last season. According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Ridley lined up on the line of scrimmage on 78.8 percent of sampled snaps and lined up outside on 81.8 percent of his snaps. The Jaguars had Zay Jones and Marvin Jones play this role in 2022. However, Marvin Jones was cut before the 2023 season and Zay Jones only played in nine games last season because of injuries.
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Ridley should have lined up more off the ball in the slot last season. Complicating the matter, Christian Kirk plays primarily in the slot but the Jaguars were still hesitant to move Ridley around when Kirk was out of the lineup.
Week 14, 14:45 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-1
Here, Ridley lined up on the line of scrimmage and outside against Browns corner Greg Newsome II. The Browns had a cover zero blitz, meaning Newsome had Ridley in man-to-man coverage with no deep help. Ridley ran a “go” route.
Newsome opened up inside and easily stayed on top of Ridley. Though a “go” isn’t a great answer against this technique, the right ball here would have been a back-shoulder pass but Lawrence threw it downfield as if he trusted Ridley could get behind Newsome.
Against off-man, throwing this route means you believe your guy is more athletic than their guy — that’s just not how Ridley wins.
Ridley didn’t get close and the ball was intercepted.
An X is usually bigger because he has to deal with press coverage more often. Ridley struggled against press last season and because of his static usage, he was easily double-teamed and taken out of the game by opponents. Ridley wasn’t maximized in this role and the offense suffered because of it. Ridley will no longer be part of the equation after leaving for the Titans in free agency this offseason.
GO DEEPER
After three seasons, what's holding Trevor Lawrence back?
2. Dropped passes
Though Ridley was misused, his shaky hands and inability to keep his feet in bounds hurt Lawrence’s numbers and stunted the offense. Lawrence led the league in EPA lost to dropped passes.
https://t.co/eHgIBiayCt pic.twitter.com/UTLnnFdzpp
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) June 14, 2024
Ridley dropped seven passes last season but that doesn’t include those in which he failed to keep his feet in bounds. Also, his drops came at inopportune times on potential explosive passes.
The Jaguars ended the season with a loss with Ridley fittingly dropping an explosive pass that would set them up near the fringe of the red zone.
Week 18, 2:05 remaining in the fourth quarter, second-and-2
Down eight points with a little over two minutes remaining, Ridley lined up in the slot against the Titans and ran a deep crosser.
The Titans were in quarters coverage and when Lawrence saw the weakside safety bracket the receiver to his left, he knew he would have Ridley running free across the field.
He made the right read and uncorked a deep ball to Ridley but it was dropped. The ball placement could have been a smidge better but you would expect an NFL receiver to make a diving catch if the ball hits him in the hands. Ridley and Lawerence failed to establish chemistry last season. Without a consistent deep threat, defenses compressed the Jaguars passing game and made it difficult for them to execute quick and intermediate concepts in which their receivers thrive.
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Signing Gabe Davis in free agency and drafting Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round was general manager Trent Baalke intentionally addressing their need for field stretchers. Davis’ ceiling is limited but Thomas can potentially open up this offense even if he doesn’t have 1,000 yards as a rookie. If he can catch the occasional fade route when defenses play up, it’ll do wonders for this offense.
3. Miscommunication with WRs
Lawrence has to work on his precision. His receivers dropped a lot of passes but his ball placement wasn’t very good this season. Some of that has to do with his protection but his passes were frequently behind or too far in front of receivers. His slight misses aren’t just because of general accuracy, there were a lot of miscommunications on routes. Lawrence didn’t seem confident throwing to spots. Because of his shoddy protection, Lawrence frequently tried to make anticipation throws and sometimes even threw the ball a beat too early but his receivers weren’t consistently where he thought they would be.
Week 16, 1:44 remaining in the second quarter, second-and-5
Here, tight end Evan Engram ran a special seam on a four verticals concept. On this route, against one deep safety, Engran should cut across the field but against two-deep safeties, he should try to split them at a higher angle.
Lawrence got to the top of his route and began throwing as Engram broke. The defense dropped both safeties deep so Lawrence assumed Engram would split them.
Instead, Engram kept going across the field. The ball was thrown high and intercepted. Though the pass goes down as an interception, this was more on Engram than Lawrence.
In this diagram from Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson’s playbook, the F receiver ran a similar route to Engram’s. The “2/4” on top of the F’s route tells the receiver he has to take this route vertically against cover 2 or 4.
Looking back on 2022, Lawrence threw with much more confidence when making those anticipation throws, particularly to Zay Jones. As mentioned, Jones struggled with injuries in 2023 and never looked like himself. The Jaguars cut him this offseason so it’ll be up to Davis and Thomas to build a rapport with Lawrence. Lawrence wants to play within the structure of the offense and throw the ball in time but needs to be confident that his receivers will be where he expects them to be. This will require extra time in the film room and outside of practice from Lawrence and the Jaguars receiving corps.
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4. Forcing passes
Lawrence has thrown 39 interceptions over three seasons. Last season, according to Pro Football Focus, he had the ninth-highest turnover-worthy play rate among passers with at least 200 attempts. Three of his interceptions were passes dropped by his receivers but he had too many forced passes. He doesn’t seem to misread the defense or get surprised by the coverage. On most of his interceptions, it seems like he knows the risk and sees a crowd of defenders but throws the ball anyway because he believes he can fit it in somehow.
Week 8, 10:48 remaining in the second quarter, second-and-10
Here, in the red zone against the Steelers, Ridley was lined up outside and had a crosser across the field.
The Steelers appeared to be in a form of cover 4. The corner away from Ridley dropped to help on the crosser. Lawrence saw that the corner had his back completely turned toward the sideline and thought Ridley could beat him to the sideline.
Understanding where windows will open up based on defenders’ body positions is an important skill for a quarterback, but other factors are in play quarterbacks have to recognize.
Lawrence was rushed so he had to throw the ball early and a defender was trailing Ridley. Lawrence had to throw the ball off his back foot.
The ball was easily intercepted. Lawrence knew the coverage. He saw the crowd of defenders but he thought he could fit the ball in despite having to throw the ball early. He has to fight these impulses.
In 2022, he cut his interception rate in half from 2021. He’s shown he can take care of the ball when he wants to. Part of what makes him special is he can find and hit windows that others can’t. He shouldn’t neuter his aggressiveness too much but he does need to dial it back a notch.
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Lawrence looks close to truly breaking out. Some of his bad luck with dropped passes will regress to the mean. Thomas’ skill set should be a force multiplier for the rest of the Jaguars offense even if he isn’t as productive as Ridley was last year. The offensive line should be better with a healthy Cam Robinson and right tackle Anton Harrison going into his second season. Ultimately, it’ll be up to Lawrence to improve his accuracy and reduce turnover-worthy plays.
(Top photo: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
