In the first half of last season, Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte ranked 11th in the National League in WAR, which was better than anyone else at his position. Yet he didn’t make the All-Star team.
Fans voted for the Miami Marlins’ Luis Arraez to be the NL starter at second base, players voted for the Atlanta Braves’ Ozzie Albies to be the backup, and the Diamondbacks were well-represented with three other All-Star selections. Marte had the distinction of being among the annual snubs.
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And inevitably, there will be snubs again this year. The league announced its first All-Star voting updates on Monday, and Marte — who now ranks third in the NL in WAR, best among second basemen — is again not leading the fan voting.
There is still plenty of time for things to change, but here are three All-Star-worthy players in each league who — either because of a crowded field, or because of quirks in the selection process — seem to be especially vulnerable to being left out.
National League
Brice Turang
Milwaukee Brewers, 2B
The top two second basemen in the National League — and it’s not particularly close — have been Marte and Turang. They lead in fWAR at their positions (by more than half a win), and bWAR has them among the top four players at any position in the NL (joined by Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani).
But Luis Arraez of the San Diego Padres leads the league in hits and batting average, and he’s currently the leading vote-getter at second base. If that holds, the Player Ballot — which chooses a backup at each position — will surely pick one of Marte or Turang, but getting both on the team might be tight considering the Commissioner’s Office has room for just two at-large position players in each league, and might need those spots to find a representative from each team.
Francisco Lindor
New York Mets, SS
One reason it might be hard to get two backup second basemen on the NL roster is that the league is loaded with deserving shortstops, and Philadelphia Phillies fans are stuffing the ballot box to make the roster even tighter.
Even with Betts out of the picture because of his broken hand, the top 15 NL players by fWAR feature another four shortstops, and that list doesn’t include Trea Turner, who’s right now second to Betts in the fan voting (meaning Turner’s in a decent position to end up starting the game).
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If Turner does make the team as the starter, the Player Ballot could choose between Cincinnati Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz and Brewers veteran Willy Adames as the top candidates to be his backup. In theory, there would be room for both, but shortstop Ezequiel Tovar would be an ideal Colorado Rockies representative and Lindor — who’s 10th in the league in fWAR, right behind Adames — has been the best player on the Mets.
It’ll be hard to get every deserving shortstop on the team, which could open the door for Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo or Rockies starter Cal Quantrill to end up on the team instead.
Logan Webb
San Francisco Giants, SP
The National League is overloaded with All-Star quality starting pitchers. Webb is a bona fide ace coming off a second-place Cy Young Award finish. He’s second in the league in innings, sixth in Win Probability Added, and he has a spectacular 3.02 ERA — which is 13th-best in the league and second-best on his own team!
Nine National League starters have an ERA of 2.99 or better (and it’ll be 10 once Atlanta Braves starter Reynaldo López has enough innings to qualify again), and 21 rank in the top 10 in at least one of ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine or Win Probability Added. Four Phillies starters, three from the Los Angeles Dodgers, and three more from the Braves deserve serious All-Star consideration, plus the league might find its best representatives from the Mets (Luis Severino), Rockies (Quantrill), Marlins (Ryan Weathers, Tanner Scott), Pittsburgh Pirates (Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes) and Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin among others) need to be pitchers. There are also a handful of non-closers (Matt Strahm of the Phillies, Bryan Hudson of the Brewers, Fernando Cruz of the Reds) making compelling cases for inclusion.
Each roster has room for only 12 pitchers. Some additional arms will make it as injury replacements and fill-ins for guys who pitch the Sunday before the break, but still, there could be some starters with exceptionally low ERAs who don’t make the NL team.
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American League
Rafael Devers
Boston Red Sox, 3B
Already a two-time All-Star, Devers is on pace for the highest OPS of his career, and his wRC+ and slugging percentage are the highest among American League third basemen. He’s 10th in the AL in WAR.
But two things could block Devers from making the team: depth at his position and underwhelming vote totals from Red Sox fans.
Cleveland Guardians third baseman José Ramírez is having another elite season and is so far running away with the fan voting. Devers is third behind Baltimore Orioles rookie Jordan Westburg. No other Red Sox player ranks top five at any position. Left fielder Jarren Duran isn’t even top 20 among outfielders, and he ranks sixth in the league in WAR (among all position players).
Certainly, Devers could still make the team as the backup from the Player Ballot, but Westburg is a compelling alternative (2.4 WAR for Devers, 2.3 for Westburg), and if the league has room for an additional third baseman, it might find that Isaac Paredes (2.0 WAR, 138 wRC+) is the best possible representative of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Ryan Jeffers, C
Minnesota Twins
By WAR, each league has two standouts at the catcher position. In the American League, it’s Adley Rutschman of the Orioles and Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals. In the National League, it’s the Brewers’ William Contreras and Will Smith of the Dodgers. It would make sense to have those four as the starter and backup in each league.
But All-Star teams often carry three catchers, and Jeffers, too, has been awfully good for the Twins. His offensive numbers are comparable to Rutschman’s, and he’s as good as any potential Twins representative (outside of, maybe Carlos Correa, who could get crowded out by the AL depth at shortstop). It would also be a great story for a perennially overlooked player to have his moment in the All-Star spotlight.
However, this might not be a three-catcher year for either league. Each had three All-Star catchers last year, but each league had only two the year before, and they were split in 2021 (two for the AL, and a whopping four for the NL). Assuming Rutschman and Perez are chosen as the top two AL catchers, the league office will have only two more bench spots to fill with at-large candidates, and right now there are five AL third basemen and five AL shortstops with a higher WAR than Jeffers. If he makes it, Jeffers would be one of the best stories on either of this year’s All-Star rosters, but it might be tough to justify his spot ahead of Paredes or New York Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe.
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Seth Lugo
Kansas City Royals, SP
This is shaping up to be a career year for 34-year-old Lugo. He leads the American League in wins, he’s second in innings, and he’s fifth in ERA (with an All-Star caliber 2.40). He’s also on pace to help lift the Royals into the playoffs for the first time in almost a decade.
On the surface, he’s an All-Star shoo-in.
But the American League pitching leaders are a complicated bunch this season. The Yankees’ Luis Gil and Detroit Tigers’ Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty are the only ones who rank top 10 in both ERA and strikeouts per nine. The leader in expected ERA (Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox) ranks all the way down at 14th in actual ERA.
There’s going to be a lot of personal preference involved in the AL pitching selections, and at least five relievers (the Yankees’ Clay Holmes, Guardians’ Emmanuel Clase, Oakland A’s Mason Miller, Texas Rangers’ Kirby Yates, Seattle Mariners’ Andres Muñoz), maybe more, have strong All-Star resumes, potentially cutting into the number of starters who will make the team.
Depending on how the players vote — the Player Ballot decides most of the All-Star pitchers — teams with multiple pitching candidates (Mariners, Tigers and Royals among them) might find there’s not room for all of their standouts. If there’s room for only one Royals starter, Cole Ragans (102 strikeouts, 3.14 ERA) would have just as strong a claim as Lugo.
(Top photo of Devers: Elsa / Getty Images)
