Aiyuk and Stafford negotiations continue, plus coaching changes to watch

Scoop City is The Athletic’s daily NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive the newsletter directly in your inbox.

Let’s talk contracts and coaches today. Today’s NFL update:

🤝 Aiyuk and Stafford negotiations
💼 Most intriguing new coaches
🔬 Two fantasy football sleepers

Contract Demands: Aiyuk and Stafford

You can’t always get what you want, sang the Rolling Stones, but don’t tell that to 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk and Rams QB Matthew Stafford. Aiyuk ($12.5 million career earnings and 26 years old) and Stafford ($328 million and 36) are in very different financial situations, but they have similar wants: guaranteed money on longer-term contracts.

Aiyuk is set to make $14.1 million in the fifth year of his rookie contract and has reportedly been seeking a deal worth $28 million per year. The 49ers reportedly offered $26 million per year. The sides are close.
Stafford is set to make $31 million in 2024, has no guaranteed money after this season and is looking for guarantees past 2024 (a good sign for anyone who hopes he plays beyond this season, at least). There’s no sign of any offer from the Rams.

Despite those overall similarities, there are plenty of nuanced differences.

Brandon Aiyuk’s approach

Aiyuk has skipped every offseason activity, and earlier this week said the 49ers don’t want him back. In a video posted to his TikTok account, he said that to Washington QB Jayden Daniels (Aiyuk’s former college QB at Arizona State).

Publicly, GM John Lynch has said the team “wouldn’t anticipate” trading Aiyuk and that the focus is on keeping him in San Francisco. Don’t forget that the 49ers hold all the leverage here. Not only is Aiyuk under contract in 2024, they can franchise tag him in 2025 for an estimated $24.7 million, according to OverTheCap. They also drafted WR Ricky Pearsall — who has been impressing in Aiyuk’s absence — in this year’s first round.

Still, Aiyuk’s camp has strong counters. The 2023 second-team All-Pro has improved every season and was the top receiver in ESPN’s tracking metrics last year, narrowly beating A.J. Brown, who received a $32 million per year deal this offseason. (In fact, per that metric, Aiyuk performed better last year than any other receiver in the last five seasons.)

He’s asking for less than market. But until he gets his asking price, don’t expect to see him attend any offseason programs. Then again, maybe $50,000 daily fines for training camp absences change the math? We’ll find out on July 23.

Matthew Stafford’s approach

Meanwhile, Stafford is attending every practice, mandatory or not, and is expected to attend training camp in July. (To be clear, that doesn’t mean he’s made an inherently more moral decision than Aiyuk has. Business is business. For one thing, the QB has more leverage.)

While Aiyuk’s 2024 cap hit is just $14.1 million, Stafford’s is a sizable $49.5 million, more than double the QB’s cap hit from last season (per Spotrac). The Rams could restructure his deal to lower that number by approximately $20 million, according to OverTheCap.

Last year, following his Week 9 absence (UCL sprain in his right thumb), the Rams finished 7-1, ranking as the highest-scoring offense across his final seven games (he sat Week 18), with Stafford throwing 16 touchdowns and posting the third-best QB rating in the NFL. They surprised many by making the playoffs.

Stafford’s $40 million per-year average actually represents a notable discount, especially with Trevor Lawrence at $55 million and Jared Goff at $52 million. Stafford ranked above both in QB rating in 2023.

This offseason, Stafford saw Kirk Cousins (also 36 this summer) land essentially a two-year, $100 million guaranteed deal. Don’t be surprised if Stafford’s guaranteed money across the next three years ends up in that ballpark.

As for insight into the negotiations, don’t expect any hints from the Rams. “We’ll keep things internally,” HC Sean McVay has repeated this offseason.

Los Angeles also appears confident a deal will be reached, and the former Super Bowl champ attending all offseason activities is a good sign. “There’s nothing that’s more important than making sure that he feels appreciated and that he knows how much we love him and want him to lead the way,” McVay first said in April, “and I think that commitment that I think he wants to have can be reciprocated.”

Can it be reciprocated soon? As The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue has noted, now is typically the time: “The Rams have settled contract disputes or extensions deeper into the offseason — ahead of training camp.”

We’ll be keeping tabs on this over the coming weeks, as Los Angeles kicks off training camp on July 23.

Coaching Carousel: Most impactful new names

There are eight new head coaches and 32 new coordinators. Who are the most intriguing? Let’s start with the head coaches.

First is Jim Harbaugh, who reminds players of Will Ferrell but should give Chargers’ fans more to cheer about after their 5-12 season; Harbaugh has never had a losing season as an NFL coach, and his .695 winning percentage is the highest among active coaches, ranking fifth all time — behind four Hall of Famers. How quickly can he turn around a Chargers team known for underachieving?
A close second was the Falcons’ hiring of Raheem Morris, a player-favorite looking to build around a talented young core with the help of veteran QB Kirk Cousins. Morris struggled in his prior head coaching gigs (.356 winning percentage) but spent the past three years working with Sean McVay. He recently spoke to The Athletic’s Robert Mays about this new chance.

Offensive coordinators typically have short stints, with the best receiving head coaching positions elsewhere. There’s only one NFL OC who has been in that position longer than two years, and that’s de facto OC and HC Kyle Shanahan. Seriously. Every other offensive coordinator was hired in 2022 or more recently. There are 15 new OCs this year.

The most intriguing is former Rams QB coach and passing game coordinator Zac Robinson (Falcons OC), thanks to all the weapons — and expectations — in Atlanta, as well as the success we’ve seen from McVay disciples.
Eagles OC Kellen Moore had a forgettable 2023 with the Chargers, but his first four years as OC saw the Cowboys finish second in the NFL in total offense (391.0 ypg), scoring offense (27.7 ppg), and touchdowns across that time. In Philly, he gets arguably the NFL’s best set of skill-position players.
Another to watch is Saints OC Klint Kubiak, who looks to emulate the success had by other members of Kyle Shanahan’s coaching tree.

Defensive coordinators have a longer shelf life, but not by much. Only four have been in their respective positions longer than two years (four times the number of OCs), and we saw 17 new DCs hired this year.

It’s easy to identify Dallas DC Mike Zimmer as one to watch, as the former Vikings HC returns to a role he thrived in from 2000 to 2006. The 67-year-old heads a Cowboys unit that led the NFL in takeaways in three years under former DC Dan Quinn (59 interceptions, 34 fumble recoveries), but he plans to do it his way.
Another intriguing name is Ravens DC Zach Orr, the 31-year-old who went from UDFA to an All-Pro while playing linebacker in Baltimore. He inherits last season’s top-ranked defense, albeit without its second-leading tackler (Patrick Queen) and sacker (Jadeveon Clowney), but with new purple helmets. 👀

One less-heralded (but as important) change was Titans hiring Bill Callahan, one of the best offensive line coaches in the NFL. He spent the past four years leading the Browns’ elite line and will look to improve Tennessee’s league-worst unit as a member of his son Brian’s staff.

Fantasy Football: Two late-round fliers to watch

The Athletic’s Jake Ciely published his list of breakout running backs, which ends with Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin. As Jake writes, “there is a path to McLaughlin leading” the backfield, as last year he led Denver in yards per carry (5.4) and is the team’s most explosive option. It doesn’t hurt that McLaughlin drew the praise of Sean Payton for regularly arriving at 5:15 a.m.

Drake London said WR Casey Washington has been “killing it” and “fitting in really, really well” in Atlanta during OTAs and minicamp. The sixth-round rookie dominated his final three college games at Illinois (22 receptions, 375 yards and four touchdowns) and could be the Falcons’ WR3 alongside London and Darnell Mooney.

Around the NFL

Ted Nguyen broke down film on Trevor Lawrence to identify the quarterback’s shortcomings and learn how they can be corrected. It’s an enjoyable and educational read.

WR DeMario Douglas was “by far the Patriots’ best and most explosive playmaker in practice this spring,” notes Chad Graff in his list of risers and fallers in New England.

A Daniel Popper film review of Chargers free-agent running back additions Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins can help you predict who wins this backfield.

Some NFL owners have discussed a separate QB salary cap given the escalating market, as reported Tom Pelissero on Rich Eisen’s show.

The Falcons are expected to sign DT Prince Emili, who bounced around NFL practice squads before finding success in the UFL, where he was an important contributor for the team that led the league in sacks in the regular season. Terms of his contract were undisclosed.

Former Packers OT David Bakhtiari said he wants to play multiple seasons in the NFL and is “really happy” with his recovery from a 2020 knee injury. As for where he wants to play? “I want to play with the next Super Bowl MVP.”

Jacob’s Picks

📕 The cost of doing business? Former NFL GM Randy Mueller looks at the Jets, as the team is more “all-in” this season than any other in the last 40 years, and compares their approach to Cleveland’s. “The Jets have multiple Amari Cooper situations, without the runway to navigate them properly.” (The Athletic)

📺 Stafford. An all-access look at family life, the 2023 playoff push, and his return to Detroit in “Locked In with Matthew Stafford.” (YouTube)

🎙 State of the QB market. Robert Mays and Brad Spielberger discuss what we can learn from recent deals, no trade clauses, upcoming contracts for Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love & much more. (The Athletic Football Show)

The Bounce 🏀 | The Windup ⚾ | Full Time ⚽ | Prime Tire 🏁 | Until Saturday 🏈

(Photo: Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)